Past performance is a term most associated with horse racing betting. Making successful thoroughbred wagers requires the ability to read past performances. But just because we use past performance to help use decide on horses to back, it doesn’t mean we can’t use past performance to make bets in other sports. Take the Super Bowl, where past performance will mean a lot. Check out the top five past performance angles regarding Super Bowl 56 you should use to determine the team you back to win straight up and cover the spread against the Super Bowl odds.
Using Past Performance to Predict Super Bowl Winners
Super Bowl LVI
- When: Sunday, Feb. 13
- Where: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
- TV/Streaming: NBC / Peacock
Handicap specific quarterback performance in big games
The 2021 Super Bowl ended up going to Tom Brady instead of Patrick Mahomes. One of the reasons is because Mahomes had played in just 3 other big games.
Mahomes failed against Brady in the 2018-2019 AFC Championship. The KC quarterback beat Josh Allen and the Bills and then Jimmy Garoppolo and the 49ers in the 2019-2020 AFC Championship and 2020 Super Bowl.
But Mahomes’ experience in big games paled in comparison to the then 6-time Super Bowl winner. Experience mattered in the 2021 Super Bowl and Brady was the vastly more big game experienced quarterback.
In Super Bowl 56, Joe Burrow has much more big game experience than Matthew Stafford. Burrow won the College Football National Championship at LSU and beat the Chiefs in Kansas City in the AFC Championship game.
Look for the team with the most speed matchup advantages
Speed is important when handicapping horse races. It’s also important when handicapping basketball or football.
Look for speed advantages. One speed advantage that you must consider in Super Bowl 56 is Ja’Marr Chase versus the Rams’ secondary.
Chase averages 18 yards per carry. The stat implies that in most cases, Chase is simply faster than opposing cornerbacks and safeties.
Consider how teams won their playoff games and at what odds they won
How horses win as favorites and as underdogs means a ton. When handicapping the Super Bowl, how the team won as a favorite and an underdog also means a lot.
In the case of Super Bowl LVI, the Rams barely hung on against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as a +2.5 dog. Los Angeles then almost blew the game versus the 49ers as a -3.5 favorite.
The Bengals beat the Titans and the Chiefs straight up as an underdog.
Consider the Super Bowl’s likely pace and which team benefits the most
Once of the most important questions horseplayers ask is what is the likely pace of the race? A faster pace ends up favoring closers. A slow pace ends up favoring front runners.
The Chiefs and Bills played an incredibly fast fourth-quarter. The team that won the coin toss in overtime, Kansas City, ended up closing out the game.
Versus the Bengals, the fast team, KC, jumped out to an 18-point lead. The slower team, the Bengals, rallied to close out the Chiefs with a stunning come from behind overtime victory.
How does a team ship or in Super Bowl 56 play at home?
Based on the AFC Playoffs, the Bengals ship well, meaning they mustn’t take their track, home field in this case, with them.
The Rams are a terrific home team, though. So the fact Los Angeles gets to play on their field could be a big deal.
Now that you know the SB past performance angles, your job as a Super Bowl handicapper is to add weight to each angle. What’s more important? The fact the Rams are at home or the fact the Bengals are a great road team?
How important is it that Burrow won the National Championship and the AFC Championship? Do the Rams have speed advantages with Odell Beckham Jr. and Cooper Kupp? And if so, how important are those advantages?
It’s up to you to decide which past performance angle means the most to you. Then, you choose the best bet, it could be on the moneyline, against the spread, or over-under and bet more on your top wager than on other bets.
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