With the start of Super Bowl LIV just over 48 hours away, now is a great time to ponder the question of whether or not using past performances can help predict this season’s eventual Super Bowl champion. In keeping with our annual theme here at MyBookie, I’ve got a handful of great Super Bowl LIV betting insights that could help you use past performances to predict whether the favored Kansas City Chiefs or underdog San Francisco 49ers will bring home the bacon to cap off the 2019 NFL season.
Using Past Performance To Predict Super Bowl LIV Winners
Super Bowl History
One of the best ways to use past performances to predict this year’s Super Bowl winner is by looking back at the league’s Super Bowl history. For instance, you should know that favorites have gone 35-17 straight up (SU) and 28-20-2 against the spread (ATS) in the Super Bowl. The largest upset came in Super Bowl III (1969) when the New York Jets beat the Baltimore Colts 16-7 as 18-point underdogs.
In addition to that, you should know that, just six times in Super Bowl history has the favorite won the game straight up but failed to cover the number. Those instances took place in 2009, 2005, 2004, 1996, 1989 and 1976. Underdogs have gone 5-2 ATS in the last eight Super Bowls with Seattle and New England’s Super Bowl 49 matchup being the only game in Super Bowl history to go off as a Pick ‘Em.
Look at the Over/Under Total
Another good thing you can do is to look at the Over/Under total of each past Super Bowl. The O/U Total has gone 27-25 in the first 53 Super Bowl matchups after the inaugural Super Bowl between the Green Bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs featured no Over/Under total. The ‘under’ has gone 7-4 in Super Bowl matchups that have closed with a total in the fifties, like this year’s total which is set at 54.5 total points.
Another good way to predict this year’s eventual Super Bowl winner is to look at each team’s starting quarterback. Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes has gone 3-1 in the playoffs while completing 62.7 percent of his passes with 11 TD passes and no interceptions. Conversely, San Francisco’s Jimmy Garoppolo is 2-0 in two playoff starts while completing 63.0 percent of his passes. Unfortunately, Jimmy G has passed for just 208 yards along the way with one touchdown pass and one interception.
Last, but not least, I believe looking at each team’s turnover and takeways is extremely vital. While San Francisco is known for their stout defense, let it be known that the Niners finished 11th in turnover differential at +4, thanks to 27 takeaways, but 23 turnovers, including 13 interceptions by Jimmy Garoppolo.
On the flip side of the coin, Kansas City finished seventh in turnover differential at +8 after recording 23 takeaways and turning the ball over just 15 times, with only five of those turnovers being interceptions. So there you have it, a quartet of great ways you can use past history to predict this year’s Super Bowl LIV winner!