2021 Gallagher English Premiership Round 11 Expert Analysis

2021 Gallagher English Premiership Round 11 Expert Analysis

Written by on February 24, 2021

Will league-leading Bristol bounce back from its Round 10 upset to stay atop the Premiership ladder this weekend? Will the defending champion Exeter Chiefs take care of business as they look to move up from second place to overtake Bristol?

Last, but not least, can the Harlequins keep up their high-scoring ways to extend their impressive winning streak at Newcastle’s expense or will the Falcons get the upset after being off the pitch for the last two weeks?

With the 2020-21 Gallagher Premiership season set to hit the midway mark of its 22-game campaign, it’s time to find out who’s in action this weekend and which teams are offering the best value in their respective matchups. Let’s get right to it so you can bet against their Rugby odds.

Rugby Betting Analysis for Round 11 of the English Premiership

Sale Sharks (6-0-4) Vs Exeter Chiefs (7-0-3)

Analysis: Exeter is in second place in the Gallagher Premiership ladder with 222 points scored (4th) and just 135 points allowed (2nd). The Chiefs have limited the opposition to a league-low 13 tries and is tied with Bristol for the best point differential margin in the league (+87). Sale is in fifth place in the standings, having scored 210 points (6th) while allowing 188 points defensively (+22). The Sharks have put 21 tries on the board while allowing 19 defensively.

Prediction: The defending champion Chiefs have won 17 of the 22 all-time meetings against Sale including a 32-22 win the last time they met in August. Exeter should be completely lock-in and focused for this match after suffering a narrow 13-12 loss against Northampton on Saturday.

Exeter has scored a dozen more tries that Sale this season while recording 11 more conversions than the Sharks as well. The Chiefs have a huge, 1,020 meters run advantage on the Sharks this season while having far better stats when it comes to carries, passes made and tackles made. Again, with Exeter coming off a humbling loss the last time out, I’m expecting a completely dominating performance from the Chiefs on Friday!

Pick: Exeter 26 Sale 20

Bristol Bears (7-1-2) Vs Leicester Tigers (5-0-5)

Analysis: Leicester is in eighth place in the ladder with 203 points scored (7th) and 197 points conceded (+6). The Tigers have scored 21 tries while allowing 22 defensively. Leicester has won two of its last three games including a dominant 27-8 smackdown of the Wasps last weekend.

Bristol sits atop the Gallagher Premiership table, having recorded 257 points (2nd) and 32 tries (2nd). The Bears have conceded 170 points and 19 tries defensively and is tied with Exeter in point differential margin (+87). Bristol comes into this matchup fresh off a 34-34 draw against the London Irish on Sunday.

Prediction: Leicester owns a 25-13 edge in 38 all-time meetings, but Bristol dominated the last time these two met by recording an emphatic 40-3 blowout win in September. Bristol is going to be focused after losing last weekend and I like the Bears for the outright win, but Leicester has been putting some points on the board nicely the last three weeks and I believe the Tigers are the pick to cover the big, 9.5-point spread in a narrow loss.

Pick: Bristol 26 Leicester 18

Newcastle Falcons (5-0-5) Vs Harlequins (6-1-3)

Analysis: Harlequins is in third place in the ladder, but has scored a league-high 270 points while conceding 208 points defensively (9th). Harlequins have scored 30 tries while allowing 29 defensively. Harlequins have won four straight and got past Sale 24-12 on Saturday.

Newcastle is in sixth place in the ladder with 131 points scored and 127 conceded. The Falcons have scored and allowed an identical 17 tries this season. The Falcons had their last two matches canceled after falling to Exeter 15-9 in Round 8 on February 7.

Prediction: Harlequins have won 25 of 47 head-to-head matches against Newcastle including an emphatic 38-17 rout the last time these two met back in January of 2019. Not only that, but Harlequins has been lighting up the scoreboard all season long while Newcastle will almost certainly be rusty after not suiting up the last two weeks. With that said, I’m expecting Harlequins to not only get the outright win in this Round 10 meetings, but to easily cover the 5.5-point spread as well! Keep it simple and back Harlequins to extend their four-match winning streak!

Pick: Harlequins 26 Newcastle 18

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