Heading into the 2021 French Open, tennis handicappers have one question, which is can any player beat the great Rafael Nadal? The King of Clay loves Roland Garros. He’s got an unbelievable record over the surface in Paris. Check out a French Open odds analysis of Rafa’s chances of once again winning the French Open along with thoughts regarding odds on other players.
French Open Men’s Singles: Nadal Looks for His Fifth Straight French Open Title
2021 French Open
- When: May 30 – June 13
- Where: Roland Garros Stadium, Paris, France
2021 French Open Men’s Singles Odds
- Rafael Nadal -120
- Novak Djokovic +133
- Stefanos Tsitsipas +600
- Dominic Thiem +800
- Alexander Zverev +1600
- Andrey Rublev +1800
- Daniil Medvedev +2200
- Roger Federer +3300
- Diego Schwartzman +3300
- Jannick Sinner +3300
- Aslan Karatsev +3300
Assess Rafael Nadal’s odds . . . overlay or underlay?
If MyBookie releases -120 odds on Rafa Nadal, take them. -120 on the King of Clay to win a fifth straight French Open are overlay odds.
Nadal has a ridiculous 62-8 record in clay surface final matches. He’s got an unbelievable 459-42 record on clay. He’s never been extended to 5-sets at any French Open Final and Rafa has played in 13 of them, including winning the last 4.
Not only that, but Rafael wins 98% of his matches at Roland-Garros. Rafa is an unbelievable 100-2 in matches at the French Open. There’s no other way to look at it. Unless Rafael Nadal is injured or isn’t feeling his best, he’s as close to a lock of winning the French Open as any athlete is of winning any trophy in an any event in any sport.
With that being written, Novak Djokovic has beaten Rafael Nadal on a clay court. Unfortunately for Djokovic, the last time he beat Nadal on clay was the 2016 ATP 1000 Masters in Rome.
Rafa has dominated ever since. So, in a way, the +133 on Djoker, if those are the MyBookie odds, make Novak the underlay, not Rafa.
Between Stefanos Tsitsipas and Dominic Thiem, which player offers the fairest odds?
Stefanos Tsitsipas offers much fairer odds and it isn’t close. Thiem won’t enter the 2021 French Open playing his best tennis.
Thiem hasn’t won a singles title this year. His last couple of tournaments have been disasters. At the Internazionali BNL d’ Italia, unranked Lorenzo Sonego knocked Thiem out in the third-round. Cameron Norrie beat Thiem in the second-round at the Open Parc Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes Lyon.
Tsitsipas has won a couple of singles titles this year, the Rolex-Monte Carlo Masters, and the Open Parc Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes Lyon. The Open Parc win happened in his last tournament played, which is a sign Stefanos is hitting the ball great.
Who offers overlay odds among Zverev, Rublev, and Medvedev?
Daniil Medvedev isn’t playing well. He couldn’t get out of the second-round at the Internazionali BNL d’ Italia, losing in straight sets to Aslan Karatsev. Medvedev has won a singles title this year. But it was the Open Provence 13, a lower-level ATP tournament.
Andrey Rublev is in okay form. The loss to Lorenzo Sonego in the quarterfinals at the Internazionali BNL d’ Italia makes us question if the odds on Rublev are fair, though.
The odds on Alexander Zverev are fair. Zverev won the Mutua Madrid Open and beat Stefanos Tsitsipas in the finals of the Abierto Mexicano Telcel presentado por HSBC. If you really believe you can beat Rafael Nadal, and are looking for a tennis player offering better than +1000 odds, Zverev may be the play.
Is there a +3300 shot tennis handicappers should consider backing?
Probably not, but Roger Federer is up there at +3300. Federer insists he can’t win the French Open this year, which is why his odds are much higher than they normally would be.
But this is FedEx we’re talking about. The man has twenty major title trophies on his mantle. Only one of the twenty is a French Open trophy, though.
If you decide to back Federer, or Schwartzman, or Sinner, or Karatsev, or any player outside of Rafael Nadal, you’re taking a swing. Not just a swing, but you’re taking a home run swing.
That’s how dominant the King of Clay is at Roland-Garros. So why not back one of the greatest of all time to find the past magic that made him a tennis star?