ATP 250 Predictions: Argentina Open

The ATP Tour has a pair of 250 events this week, one on hard courts in Florida and another on clay in Argentina. The ATP Buenos Aires – Argentina Open features the return from injury of Carlos Alcaraz, as the top seed and the tournament favorite.

The field at the Buenos Aires Lawn Tennis Club also features two-time event winner Dominica Thiem, 2021 winner Diego Schwartzman, world No. 11 Cameron Norrie, and last week’s winner in Cordoba, Sebastian Baez. Let’s take a look at some of the ATP odds in the Argentina Open at MyBookie.

 

Tennis Picks and Analysis: ATP 250 – Argentina Open

 

The Favorites

Alcaraz hasn’t played since the Paris Masters in late 2022, but he is the top seed and the favorite at -130 to win the tournament. The young Spaniard was 26-4 on clay last season with three tournament wins. The injury kept Alcaraz from the ATP Finals, the Australian Open, and Davis Cup, but he returns this week with hopes to gear up for Indian Wells, Miami, and the clay court Masters season before the French Open.

Norrie is the No. 2 seed, and he’s reached three finals on clay in his career with a win at the Lyon Open last May. He skipped the Delray Beach Open this week, where he is the defending champion, to get more matches on clay before the French.

Schwartzman is the No. 4 seed, and he’s reached the final of this event in two straight years and three of the last four. However, the Argentinian was the top seed last week in Cordoba and lost in his first match.

Baez is a nice longshot pick as he just won the Cordoba Open, his second career title. The 22-year-old is seeded sixth and would likely face Alcaraz in the quarterfinals.

 

Cerundolo -165

As the fifth seed, Francisco Cerundolo is -165 to win his opening match against qualifier Yannick Hanfmann (+135). The 24-year-old is 4-4 on the season after being forced to retire in the second set last week against Federico Coria. He recovered quickly, though, and appears ready to go this week.

Cerundolo should be able to navigate the first match against Hanfmann, who is 0-1 in official matches this season and had to qualify for this event. These two have never met on tour, but Cerundolo swept Hanfmann in the qualifiers for this same event a year ago, 7-6, 6-1.

  

Thiem -140

A two-time winner in Buenos Aires, Thiem is a wildcard this time around as he still rebuilds ranking points after missing most of 2022. He is -140 as the first-round favorite against No. 7 seed Alex Molcan (+115) on Tuesday.

The injury knocked Thiem out of the top 100, and he’s now at 99, 48 spots behind Molcan, who has a 1-4 record this year. Both players took last week off after representing their countries in Davis Cup matches. They have never met, but Thiem should advance if he is healthy.

A win on Tuesday sets up Thiem for a nice run in Argentina, a place where he won in 2016 and 2018. He would potentially face No. 3 Lorenzo Musetti in the quarterfinals and Norrie in the semifinals, tough but negotiable matches for a former Grand Slam champion.

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