Picks for UFC Fight Night Bouts: Moreno vs Erceg Odds for the Fight

If you’re looking for expert picks for UFC Fight Night bouts, Saturday’s showdown between Brandon Moreno and Steve Erceg is a must-watch, with tight UFC betting lines offering wagering opportunities with the lines and props for each fight.

With Moreno’s aggressive style and Erceg’s rising momentum, this flyweight battle has all the makings of an instant classic.

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UFC on ESPN: Moreno vs. Erceg: UFC on ESPN 64
Saturday, March 29th, 2025 at 10:00 pm ET | Arena CDMX, Mexico City, Mexico

Betting Odds on UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs Erceg

UFC Fight Night returns on Saturday with a main card that should make any MMA fan happy.

The Octagon battles take place in Mexico City headlined by Brandon Moreno versus Steve Erceg.

The flyweights take part in a main event preceded by Manuel Torres against Drew Dober.

Check out UFC odds, analysis, and picks for the top prelim and all main card bouts in this Saturday’s UFC Fight Night.

Writer’s Picks for UFC Fight Night Bouts: Rundown on the Prelim Fights

Christian Rodriguez -175 vs Melquizael Costa +145

Costa is the slight dog, but he could be in line for an upset win.

Rodriguez is three inches shorter than Costa.

Not only that, but Costa has won 3-of-4 and 2 straight via submission.

Give the underdog a big shot in this.

If you like Costa, play him ASAP because the odds are shifting his way.

UFC Fight Night Pick: Melquizael Costa

Edgar Chairez -320 vs CJ Vergara +250

Underdog CJ Vergara lost both of his matches in 2024, which is the reason he’s a solid dog versus Edgar Charez.

Vergara has some talent but he’s 0-2 via submissions, which means his best chance at Octagon glory is to go toe-to-toe in the stand up versus his opponent.

That’s going to be tough to do versus Chairez, who is 7-2 via submission.

Even though Chairez lost his last, it was via decision.

In the bout before, Edgar won via submission. The fave looks tough to beat.

UFC Fight Night Pick: Edgar Chairez

Writer’s Picks for UFC Fight Night Bouts: Rundown on the Main Card Fights

Ronaldo Rodriguez -150 vs Kevin Borjas +125

The odds suggest a good fight between Rodriguez and Borjas.

The underdog in this is on a 2-match losing streak.

1 loss was via decision and the other came almost a year ago.

So Borjas should have bounced back from the defeats.

Rodriguez has limited UFC experience, which is why he’s a slight favorite instead of being a -200 or more chalk.

Ronaldo has dominated in the stand up and on the mat, though.

Here’s another where the fave looks like a solid pick.

UFC Fight Night Pick: Ronaldo Rodriguez

David Martinez -400 vs Saimon Oliveira +300

Most expect Dave Martinez to roll.

Although I’d like to make a case for Saimon Oliveira, it’s tough to go against the chalk here.

Martinez is 11-1 and 9-0 via knockout or technical knockout.

Although his lone UFC fight was in a Dana White Contender Series bout, he dominated his opposition in the Combate Global league.

If Martinez shows a ground game, he could be the next UFC bantamweight star.

UFC Fight Night Pick: David Martinez

Raul Rosas Jr. -320 vs Vince Morales +250

Vince Morales has struggled in his last couple of fights, falling via unanimous decision to Taylor Lapilus and Elijah Smith.

Morales would be a decent pick to turn around the form but on Saturday, he fights someone who is better than both Lapilus and Smith.

Raul Rosas Jr. is 10-1 overall and on a 3-match winning streak.

Raul won a match via knockout, one via submission, and one via decision.

His ability to switch it up depending on his opponent’s style make him the winner in this.

UFC Fight Night Pick: Raul Rosas Jr.

Kevin Gastelum +375 vs Joe Pyfer -550

Pyfer has 5 inches on the 5’ 9” Kevin Gastelum.

Unlike some other mixed martial artists, Pyfer know show to use his height as evidenced by his 13-3 record.

The chalk has won 9 and lost a single bout via TKO/KO.

Pyfer is also 3-1 via submission and he’ll take a decision win if required. The favorite gets it done.

UFC Fight Night Pick: Joe Pyfer

Manuel Torres -120 vs Drew Dober Even

Dober has lost 3-of-4 and 2 straight, which begs the question why is he an even money underdog?

 In any case, Torres, who lost his last via knockout but before that had been blasting opponents, offers a nice -120 moneyline.

Torres is 7-1 via TKO/KO and 7-2 via submission.

Give Manny the nod to score the win.

UFC Fight Night Pick: Manuel Torres   

Brandon Moreno -195 vs Steve Erceg +165

Main Event – Flyweight

Moreno versus Erceg has the makings of a classic.

Both are as good as it gets in the flyweight division. Moreno is an absolute monster when he’s at his best.

Erceg can hang for sure.

The underdog is on a 2-match losing streak but the losses came versus Alex Pantoja, the champ, and Kai Kara-France.

Still, Moreno is fighting in front of his country people and Brandon got back on the winning track in his last.

The chalk prevails.

UFC Fight Night Pick: Brandon Moreno

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About the Author

• D.S. Williamson
• Since 2008, D.S. Williamson has written about sports and sports handicapping. His philosophy is value-based, meaning stats and other handicapping factors are only worth something in comparison to wagering odds. He believes money management and making value-based wagers is the single more important factor that distinguishes successful sports bettors from non-successful sports bettors.

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