While American celebrate Independence Day this weekend, fight fans across the world will be impatiently waiting for the next UFC fight fix. It will be a weekend off for the UFC, but when they return next week, they will do so with a highly anticipated event. It will be UFC 264, which will be headlined by Dustin Poirier and Conor McGregor going head-to-head for the 3rd time. After their last fight, there seemed to be a ton of mutual respect, but things have soured after claims that McGregor failed to deliver on a promised donation to Poirier’s charity. That may well have served to make this fight even more interesting. We will break down all the main card fights next week, but for now, we thought it might be fun to look at some of the MMA Prop bets for the big fight.
UFC 264: Poirier Vs McGregor 3 Analysis | MMA Betting Preview
Straight Up Winner
In terms of the straight up win, the bookies have both fighters in at -115, so this one really couldn’t be more evenly matched. McGregor won the first meeting, which came when he was in his prime back in 2014. Last time out, it was Poirier with a convincing win in the 2nd round. For me, McGregor is now more focused on things outside the octagon, and while he can still talk a good game, he seems increasingly less likely to back up those words in the octagon, which is why I am on Poirier to win.
Method of Victory
If we stick to the idea that Poirier is going to win this one, then the next step is to pick the method of victory. Over his last 5 fights, Poirier has had 3 wins by TKO, while the other two have gone the distance. I am leaning more towards the TKO or straight KO in this one, which you can get at odds of +180. If you like Poirier to win by decision, you are looking at +450. On the flipside, you have McGregor at +125 for the KO or TKO and +500 by decision.
Over/Under Total Rounds
Looking at the odds for the method of victory, you see that the bookies are of the belief that this one is not going the distance. Assuming they are correct, we now need to decide when the fight will indeed end. Right now, the O/U is set at 2 ½. The UNDER is in at -170 while the OVER is at +130. Neither of the previous meetings went beyond the second round, so the UNDER certainly looks to be the best bet here.
Actual Round of End of Fight
While the odds are even in terms of the straight up win, they are leaning more towards McGregor when it comes to the finishing round, McGregor is +250 to win in Round 1 and +450 to win in Round 2. It is longer odds for Poirier, who is currently sitting at +600 to win in Round 1 and +700 to win in Round 2. I would be very tempted to put some money on the 2nd Round win for Poirier.