WNBA Finals Odds: The Matchup Everyone Wanted

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The New York Liberty formed a superteam last offseason. Already having Sabrina Ionescu on the roster, the Liberty brought in Jonquel Jones, Breanna Stewart and Courtney Vandersloot to bring the franchise to glory. New York has never won a WNBA crown and hasn’t played in the finals since losing to the Los Angeles Sparks in 2002.

The Sparks were the last team to do what Las Vegas Aces are attempting to do against the Liberty. Since the Sparks repeated in 2001 and 2002, no WNBA team has won back-to-back championships. Las Vegas will be the first team to try and defend its crown since the Sparks won in 2016 before losing to Minnesota in five games in 2017.

This matchup will be a fun battle and should be a fun series to bet on. Here’s a look at MyBookie’s betting analysis, WNBA betting lines, and free picks for the Finals.

WNBA Finals Odds: The Matchup Everyone Wanted | MyBookie Regular Season Betting Preview

2023 WNBA Season: 27th season of the Women’s National Basketball Association
Finals: October 8th – October 20th, 2023

Regular Season Series was Tight

The schedule was set up so the Aces and Liberty had four of their five meetings after Aug. 1. That was challenging for Las Vegas, which played its worst basketball during the season’s last month. The Liberty made their most lasting impression by squishing Las Vegas 82-63 in the Commissioner’s Cup final in Las Vegas.

New York held a 3-2 edge during the five meetings in the regular season.

Aces have a Complete Team

During the regular season, Las Vegas had one of the best offenses in WNBA history. The Aces averaged 92.8 points per game and were the second-best 3-point shooting team. Las Vegas is led by forward A’ja Wilson, who was named the WNBA’s Defensive Player of the Year. During the playoffs, Wilson has dominated both sides of the floor.

On defense, Wilson averages 3.2 blocks per game. She also averages a double-double by contributing 25.8 points and 11.2 rebounds per game. While Las Vegas’ offense has dipped down to 86 points per game in the postseason, the Aces have plenty of scoring balance around Wilson.

Chelsea Gray (16.0 points per game), Kelsey Plum (16.0) and Jackie Young (15.2) have averaged more than 15 points per game.

New York Survives Tough Test

While the Liberty and Aces seemed predestined to meet in the WNBA Finals, the Connecticut Sun was always a dark horse to win. The Sun made New York scratch and claw to get by them in four games during the semifinals.

New York only won Games 3 and 4 by a combined four points to survive and advance. The Liberty have also seen their scoring average dip to 84.3 points per game in the postseason.

Stewart has played excellent basketball, averaging 19.8 points and 9.0 rebounds in the postseason. New York forward Jonquel Jones has made an enormous impact inside, averaging 16.5 points and 12.8 rebounds per game.

WNBA Final Prediction

New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces | WNBA Finals – Game 1, Series starts 10/8
WNBA Odds: Aces -4.5 / Liberty +156; Aces -192 / O/U 172

Sunday, October 8th, 2023 at 8:00 pm EDT | ABC
Michelob ULTRA Arena Las Vegas, NV

This series has been as promised during the regular season. Other than Las Vegas missing veteran Candace Parker from the lineup, both teams come into this series in relatively good help. This series will likely determine which team can consistently succeed on offense against the other side. 

New York has been the better team since early August, but Las Vegas had a less taxing trip to the finals. The Liberty will keep this series close, but Las Vegas will survive in five games to repeat.

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