World Series Odds: Braves vs Astros Betting Analysis for Game 6

The 2021 World Series returns to Houston on Tuesday night for Game 6 against the Atlanta Braves, who lead 3-2 and look for their first championship since 1995. The Astros need a win to force a Game 7 on Wednesday and are short favorites on the MLB odds.

How to Bet Atlanta at Houston MLB Odds & TV Info

When: Tuesday, 8:09 PM ET
Where: Minute Maid Park
Probable pitchers (away/home): Max Fried/Luis Garcia
TV: Fox
Stream/gameday audio: Fox Sports Go
Opening MLB Lines: Astros -120, Braves +110 (total 8.5)

Why Bet on Atlanta?

The Braves have a chance to finish things off in Game 5 at home Sunday but flew a 4-0 lead in the bottom of the first and lost 9-5. Adam Duvall blasted a two-out grand slam in the opening inning. Jorge Soler got the rally started with a leadoff single off of Framber Valdez. Austin Riley contributed a two-out single and Eddie Rosario worked a walk to load the bases. Duvall then pulverized the first pitch that he saw — a 95 mph sinker — for a 377-foot grand slam to center. Duvall finished 1-for-4 and is now hitting .218/.267/.418 with three homers and 10 RBI this postseason. He’s an MVP candidate if the Braves win the series.

Freddie Freeman hit a 460-foot go-ahead homer off of Framber Valdez in the loss. Freeman led off the third inning for the Braves — after the Astros had just rallied to score two runs to tie the game at 4-4 — and he demolished a 3-2 sinker for the mammoth homer. It was the longest home run hit by any player during the 2021 postseason. Freeman finished 1-for-4 and is now slashing .288/.415/.558 with four long balls and nine RBI during this postseason run.

The Braves find themselves leading a World Series 3-2 for the fifth time in club history. They won the series in 1995 when they defeated the Cleveland Guardians over six games, and 1957 when they defeated the New York Yankees over seven games. The Braves lost to the Minnesota Twins across seven games in 1991, and the Yankees across seven games in 1958.

It’s lefty Max Fried on the mound. Fried was charged for six runs — five earned — while going five-plus innings in Wednesday’s Game 2 loss to the Astros. He gave up seven hits, and he issued one walk with six strikeouts before being pulled in the sixth inning. His defense hurt him in the second with an unearned run but it was still mostly an ineffective start from a pitcher that was as good as anyone in baseball down the stretch. Fried has now allowed 11 runs on 15 hits across 9 2/3 frames over his last two postseason starts.

The Braves split the first two games of the series in Houston and they are hoping that experiencing the loud crowds will help them Tuesday. “I think it is good. We’re going to a familiar place now,” Manager Brian Snitker said of the series returning to Houston. I thought they handled it really good the first go-round, and I think because we’ve been there now and the whole routine and into the routine that none of that will be a distraction at all.”

Why Bet on Houston?

This marks the 69th time that the World Series has stood at 3-2. Of the previous 68 times, the team with the 3-2 lead has gone on to win the series 45 times (66.2%). In addition, of the 68 occurrences, the team with 3-2 lead has won Game 6 on 26 occasions (38.2%). Of the 42 times that a team leading 3-2 has dropped Game 6, they have gone on to win the series just 19 times (45.2%).

Marwin Gonzalez delivered a pinch-hit go-ahead two-run single in the fifth inning on Sunday, propelling the Astros to a 9-5 come-from-behind victory over the Braves in Game 5 of the World Series. The Astros keyed their go-ahead rally with Martin Maldonado working a two-out bases-loaded walk to tie the game, then Gonzalez following by dropping a two-run single into left field to put them ahead to stay.

Maldonado went 1-for-3 and drove in three runs. Maldonado drove in a run with a sacrifice fly in the second inning to trim the Astros deficit to two runs at 4-2. He then worked a bases-loaded walk with two outs in the fifth inning to force in the tying run that made it 5-5. Maldonado then lined a two-out RBI single into left field in the seventh to score Kyle Tucker and make it an 8-5 ballgame. He is hitting just .114/.184/.114 with five RBI on the postseason.

Jose Altuve tallied his 21st run scored of the 2021 Postseason. That’s tied with Carlos Beltrán (2004) for the most all-time in a single Postseason. Altuve’s 70 career Postseason runs scored rank third in MLB Postseason history, trailing only Hall of Famer Derek Jeter (111) and Bernie Williams (83).

Kyle Tucker reached base three times with a double in Game 5. He now has eight extra-base hits, five stolen bases and 15 RBI this Postseason (15 games). Tucker became the second player in MLB Postseason history to reach those totals-or-better across 15 games in a single Postseason, joining B.J. Upton (2008).

vIt’s Luis Garcia on the mound here. Garcia allowed one run on three hits and four walks over 3 2/3 innings on Friday to take the loss in Game 3. The 24-year-old did strike out six during the contest thanks to a 75 percent whiff rate on his cutter and 42 percent swing and miss rate overall. A 33-pitch third inning that included an Austin Riley RBI double ended up being the difference-maker in Garcia not going deeper into the game.