What Is Trend-Based Handicapping? How Sports Betting Trends Work

Last updated: September 2026

When it comes to sports betting, one of the most popular methods of handicapping games is by using trends to predict the future outcomes of games. This is a method that has been used and proven to work effectively in the past, which is why it is still very popular today.

Now, how these trends are used vary in different sports, but it is effective across the board. Some handicappers are heavily influenced by trend-based handicapping, and it is a major determining factor in all the picks that they make, while others use it to help them make their final decision, when it comes to placing bets.

How Trend-Based Handicapping Works

To get an idea of how trend-based betting works, consider this, from 1981-1997, the San Francisco 49ers were 48-17 against the spread, after they had lost a game straight up, or failed to cover the spread in their previous game.

This is a very good indicator if you were placing bets on the team during the time, because it tells you that they don’t usually lose a lot of games in a row, and that they bounce back very well after they lose a game.

Evaluating Historical Trends With Data

If you were using trend-based handicapping, you would look at the 49ers after a loss or failed to cover the spread. They covered 74% of the time in this situation from 1981-1997.

That is a strong historical result, even though the team went through changes in coaches, players and personnel during the 16-year period.

Bettors looking to expand their knowledge of different handicapping methods can explore the sports betting academy for additional guides on analyzing markets, odds and betting approaches.

Historical trends can highlight patterns, but bettors should also understand how those patterns are measured and tested. Learning how to build a sports betting model can help separate meaningful data points from trends caused by small sample sizes.

Trend-Based Handicapping Example

Sometimes, these trends aren’t limited to specific teams, because a lot of teams get their personality from their head coach. Let’s take former NFL head coach Jon Gruden for example.

As the head coach of the Oakland Raiders and then the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Gruden’s teams were 16-8 ATS and 15-10-2 ATS respectively, after a loss. After a victory, his teams were 16-20 ATS and 13-20 ATS respectively.

During his career, Gruden was known to be a fiery coach, and you can tell by looking at the trends, that his personality allowed him to be able to motivate his players after a loss, but didn’t have as much success after victories, because he didn’t have much to be angry or complain about.

Trend-Based Handicapping After Win/Loss

While it is easier to predict team trends after wins or losses, there are some other betting trends that can’t be used to accurately predict the outcome of games. Examples of these types of trends are the historic trends between two teams, trends that tell you how well a team has done historically in a certain month, or if a team has won or lost a certain number of home openers in a row. Before placing any wager based on trends, it is also important to understand the rules of sports betting and how different markets are graded.

Trend-Based Handicapping Rivalries

Historical meetings between two teams do not always carry much weight. Since those games were played, there may have been coaching changes, major free agent moves or significant roster changes that affect the current matchup.

Why Historical Rivalry Trends Can Be Misleading

In this day and age, it is very rare to see head coaches that are with the same team for over 10 years, or a group of players that play for the same team their whole career. Changes that can impact whether an old trend still applies include:

• Coaching changes: A new head coach can introduce different strategies, systems and game plans.
• Roster turnover: Player departures, free agent signings and injuries can change how teams match up.
• Different team circumstances: Past meetings may have happened under conditions that no longer reflect the current teams.

When Rivalry Trends May Still Matter

This is why it is hard to use historical trends between two teams. On a few rare occasions, like with the New England Patriots in the NFL, and the San Antonio Spurs in the NBA, those trends can be useful, because both teams have had the same coaches and core players for over a decade, which makes those trends still valid.

Don’t put too much weight on other trends like the trend that tells you how well a team has done historically in a certain month, or how many home openers in a row they have won or lost, because they really have little value in predicting the future.

Conclusion

Trend-based handicapping is the process of analyzing historical patterns, such as how teams perform in specific situations, to help evaluate potential betting decisions. These trends can provide useful context, but they should not be treated as guarantees of future results.

The most valuable trends are usually those supported by a meaningful sample size and consistent conditions, such as teams with stable coaching systems or core players. Bettors should focus on trends that explain why a pattern exists rather than relying on historical records alone.

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About the Author

Henry Watkins

Henry Watkins is a Sports Writer at MyBookie. Originally from Scotland and currently residing in Metro Atlanta with his wife, Penny, Henry covers competitive and professional sports as well as the business of sports. In addition to his sports writing, he is an author of horror fiction, including Karaoke Night, Crueller, and Off The Grid.

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