Success with football betting systems is all about getting your fundamentals right and progressively learning about how to beat the sports betting odds. Below, we have put together a brief collection of football betting systems, separating the ones that work and those that don’t.
Football Betting Systems That Work
These football betting systems focus on bankroll discipline, probability, and risk control—rather than chasing short-term wins or relying on luck.
The Kelly Criterion Football Betting System
As a football betting system that focuses on optimizing your winning potential with considerably low risk, the Kelly Criterion is a system that definitely warrants your attention if you are looking for success in football betting.
In essence, the Kelly Criterion is a money management betting system that aims at finding the optimum amount of money you should wager from your bankroll.
Basically, the formula used in this system is represented as follows: bankroll) BR% = (P*B) – 1 / odds – 1, where P is the probability of winning (in decimal format), B is the odds offered in your sportsbook and BR% is the percent of bankroll that should be staked according to the Kelly Criterion.
If you apply this formula and get a positive BR% number, then it means you can place the bet. However, if the BR% number is negative, then it means you should keep away from the bet.
Accumulator Football Betting System
The truth about accumulator bets, also known as multi bets or parlays, is that they come with plenty of risks. For example, if every bet has a 5% bookie edge over the punter, a five-team parlay means that the bookie will have an edge as high as 25%.
With that, making a profit from accumulator bets is never that easy. But on the flip side, these types of bets can equally be very profitable if you use a good strategy.
Whenever you consider accumulator bets in your football betting, it is extremely important that you go with your best or ‘surest’ picks in the parlay. This way, you give yourself a better winning chance over your bookies and encourage profitability in your accumulators.
Hedging Football Betting System
Essentially, this Hedging Football Betting System entails betting on related markets in opposite directions, such that you are guaranteed of profits irrespective of which team emerges victorious in the game.
The math involved in this system is a bit complicated, but if you have no problems with crunching down numbers, then it is a system you may want to add to your betting résumé.
↑ TopHere Are Football Betting Systems that DON’T Work
Martingale Football Betting System
Simply put, the Martingale system is a betting method that requires you to double your previous bet for every losing bet you make. For instance, if your first bet was $10 and it lost, then you would have to stake $20 on the second match.
This sequence continues until you win a match, and then begin the betting sequence again. In theory, this system works quite well, as you are guaranteed to realize a one profit unit (which is equal to the size of your opening bet) on a winning hand, but in reality, it comes with plenty of flaws, especially in football betting. For one, the martingale system often requires a very large bankroll; something that many punters can’t afford. If, for instance, your opening bet was $5, you would have to bet $160 if you lost five bets in a row. The other major concern is that bad losing streak are a commonality in betting, and you could easily wipe out your entire bankroll using this method without an option for recovery.Labouchere System
Like the Martingale System, the Labouchère system is a math-based system that is often applied for even money bets in the football betting area.
The idea is this system is that you have to first decide how many units you would like to win and then break down your bets in linear form in away that would ‘guarantee’ some profits at the end of your bets.
The mathematics behind this system are solid, in theory, but without a big bankroll, it’s hard to use this system successfully.
Of course, the Labouchère system makes a number of concessions for different bankrolls, but the system tends to be very expensive and time-wasting, especially if results don’t go your way, hence making it an ill-advised option for football bettors that often require speedy results and profits.
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About the Author
Since 2008, D.S. Williamson has written about sports and sports handicapping. His philosophy is value-based, meaning stats and other handicapping factors are only worth something in comparison to wagering odds. He believes money management and making value-based wagers is the single more important factor that distinguishes successful sports bettors from non-successful sports bettors.
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