How to Handicap the MLB Wildcard Round Season

Placing winning bets in the MLB wild card games is not that different from successful MLB betting wagers in the regular season, as success is determined by usual baseball handicapping factors like starting pitchers, strength of bullpens, and winning vs. losing momentum, among other factors that bettors track throughout the year using tools like a full MLB season schedule betting guide. Many of the pricing mistakes bettors make in the wild card round mirror the same uncertainty-driven errors seen earlier in the year, which is why understanding how to take advantage of early MLB betting season uncertainty helps identify value when the market overreacts to short-term narratives.

There are, however, a few differences between playoff and regular-season betting, and if you can identify these key shifts—many of which are covered in advanced MLB postseason betting strategies—your chances of success will be greatly increased in the MLB wild card odds and lines.

Handicapping Superior vs. Inferior Winning Percentages

Winning more games in the regular season doesn’t always mean that a team with a superior winning percentage is better than its opponent. Factors like strength of schedule, injuries and suspensions, and competitiveness in a division or league have a way of influencing regular-season winning percentages, which is why raw records should never be evaluated in isolation.

As a bettor, you must therefore ensure that you put such factors into perspective in your betting, rather than blindly banking on teams with better winning percentage, especially when value often appears on underdogs from tougher competitive environments.

Home Field Advantage

During the playoffs, homefield advantage tends to count more than in the regular season, as ballparks are filled and good players are often able to feed off the crowd energy. If you can especially find a home-playing wildcard team that was dominant at home during the regular season, your success will be greatly encouraged.

Exploiting Pitching Mismatches

Given that rotations are usually shortened in the playoffs and competing teams usually have their best players in their respective rosters, it’s never easy to find pitching mismatches in the wildcard games, as is often the case in the regular season.

That said, there are certain pitchers that stand out above their counterparts, either due to experience or current form, and identifying those edges is a core principle of effective starting pitcher handicapping at the playoff level.

In this regard, you should therefore do your research on the pitchers prior to the games, comparing their numbers and trends from the regular season as well the numbers from previous playoffs (if there are any).

Additional factors such as performance versus righties or lefties and the ability to go deep into games—like 6 or more innings—can also offer great value here.

The Value of “Weak Teams” from “Strong Divisions”

Every team will always claim that its division is the strongest, but we all know that some divisions tend to be more competitive than others. As a result, you may find that a team from a weaker division owns a better record than one battle-tested through a stronger schedule, which often creates mispriced value in the MLB wild card odds.

When you find yourself in such a scenario, it is advisable to lean on the side of the battle-tested team from a strong division, as MLB betting history—and proven profitable baseball underdog systems—show these teams outperform market expectations more often in playoff environments.

The Value of MLB Playoff Experience

In MLB playoffs betting, experience is arguably the single most important element to consider when handicapping games. A team that has the experience of reaching and winning games in the postseason holds a clear advantage over the team from the other side, irrespective of where the game is played.

This is mainly based on the fact that these experienced teams are often well-aware of how to handle pressure, the mistakes to avoid and playing systems to adopt; something new and ill-experienced playoff teams don’t have.

Of course, there are instances that inexperienced teams come through as winners in wild card games, but with experienced squads often winning as high as 60% of their games, it is highly encouraged to be on a serious lookout for these seasoned units.

The Value of Momentum

In the later stages of the playoffs, like the divisional round and the league championship round, momentum can do wonders for a team.

In the wild card games, however, momentum from the regular season rarely has that same impact, especially when late-season wins may have come against weaker opponents or required heavy bullpen and ace usage just to qualify.

Every team approaches the wildcard matchup like a final, which is why focusing on structural edges rather than perceived momentum will most likely do you far more good when handicapping the MLB wildcard round.

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About the Author

• Henry Watkins
• Henry Watkins is a Sports Writer at MyBookie. Originally from Scotland and currently residing in Metro Atlanta with his wife Penny, Henry covers a range of topics, including competitive and professional sports as well as sports business. In addition to his sports writing, he is also an author of horror fiction, with works such as Karaoke Night, Crueller, and Off The Grid.

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