March Madness is one of those events where people who don’t normally have an interest in sports get involved. Sometimes it’s as simple as creating a bracket for fun, while other times it’s about wagering on the games in support of the bracket. What tends to happen is that a lot of money goes on games from people who know little about college basketball, which in turn leads to the lines changing, creating situational betting opportunities for those who know what to look for. Part of your college basketball betting strategy should be to look for games where the public, or the experts, have over- or undervalued a team. This March Madness betting guide should help you with that, so let’s get to it.
How can I predict the major upsets (Cinderella teams) in the early rounds of March Madness?
Every year, we see upsets in the opening round, but did you know that those most commonly come in the 12 Vs 5 seed games? Roughly 34% of the time, we see the lower seed come away with the win, but which ones should you play? In order to make your 12 vs 5 seed betting strategy count, you need to look at things like historic seed matchup trends data, which could help you narrow things down. You also need to look at pace of the game and intangibles. For example, in 2023, #12 Furman knocked off #5 Virginia by controlling the tempo and routinely draining shots from 3-point range. A team with an elite guard and success from the free throw line can be dangerous against any team.
^Which advanced college basketball statistics (like KenPom or Bart Torvik) are the most important for Betting?
Ken Pomery has become something of a got to for college basketball bettors looking to dig into the data to find winning college basketball betting picks. Using the KenPom ratings, you can find mis priced lines and metrics such as adjusted offensive/defensive efficiency, all of which is designed to help you make smarter betting choices. The general betting public does not put this much thought into their wagers, but those who find the true efficiency leaders in a matchup can beat the public more often than not.
^What is the most profitable betting strategy: Betting on favorites or Underdogs?
Think of your betting tickets like your investment portfolio, in that it is never wise to put all your eggs in one basket. Smart bettors mix things up by looking for March Madness underdog value bets, as well as some solid favorites at good odds, to create a winning college basketball betting strategy. If you simply spend your whole time chasing one or the other, your tournament will be over before it really begins.
^Sports Betting Guide provided by MyBookie
Should I bet on March Madness futures (National Champion/Final Four) or stick to game-by-game Bets?
The odds that accompany futures bets tend to be rather mouthwatering, especially at the start of tournament play. For example, has you dropped $50 on UConn to win it all in 2023, you would have made over $400. While March Madness future odds are tempting, you are giving up liquidity for a bet that might never hit. One thing to consider is holding off on futures bets until the Sweet 16, at which point you might consider hedging futures bets to cover your bases a little. There are plenty of hedge bet calculators available online to help you put these wagers together to improve your chances of profiting.
What is the best strategy for betting the Point Spread vs the Moneyline?
If you are looking for better consistency, spreads are the way to go, while the moneyline delivers the best upside in games expected to be close. For example, if you have a lower seed sitting at +250 on the moneyline, you stand to earn more than playing the same amount of money on the +6 ½ point spread. When you bet on NCAAB games, look at both options and decide which offers the best value, while also aligning with your confidence level on the outcome. NCAA basketball betting strategies are all about managing your money, building your bankroll, and making sure you win enough to advance to the later rounds with money in your pocket.
^How should I adjust my betting strategy during the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight rounds?
Once we get to the later rounds, we see games that are more evenly matched, which means tighter spreads and lower totals. Veteran teams who have starters with tournament experience are often where the value lies in your college basketball betting strategy. Take a look at March Madness over/under trends, as well as the spread. For example, going all the way back to 2015, teams favored by 3 points or fewer have covered almost 60% of the time. There is data to be found that will help you nail down profitable wagers in the late rounds.
^March Madness Betting Guide Final Thoughts
From the outside looking in, March Madness looks like total chaos, but if you look at history, there are betting trends that continue to repeat. If you can take the time to look at historical data and keep an eye online movement, you will know when to become a situational bettor and strike when the odds suit you. If you are ready to make money wagering on March Madness, then open your MyBookie account today and let the winning begin.
^MyBookie’s Sportsbook Betting Guide
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