Can Florida Avoid Home Upset Against Vanderbilt in College Football Week 5?

Can Florida Avoid Home Upset Against Vanderbilt in College Football Week 5?

Written by on September 26, 2017

After needing a pair of miraculous comebacks in each of the last two weeks, in College Football Week 5 the 20th-ranked Florida Gators will look to avoid the home upset against a Vanderbilt Commodores team that is a bit desperate to show they can hang with the big boys in the SEC after getting unmercifully routed last weekend to suffer their first loss of the season.

Florida also has to deal with criminal felony charges that were levied against nine players, so no one really knows what the mindset of the Gators will be coming into this contest, still, Florida is a solid favorite by 10-points.

If you want to know where the value in this intriguing Week 5 SEC showdown pairing lies, let’s find out right now.

Vanderbilt at Florida College Football Week 5 Analysis & Betting Odds

When: Saturday, September 30, 2017, 12:00 PM ETWhere: Ben Hill Griffin StadiumTV: ESPNRadio: ESPN 1420 (Vanderbilt) / 620 AM (Florida)Live Stream: SEC NetworkCollege Football Week 5 Odds: Florida Gators -10Total: 42

Miami at Duke Game Preview & College Football Lines for Week 5

Recent Head to Head (Last 10 Games)

  • Record: Florida Leads 9-1
  • Score: Vanderbilt 14.80 / Florida 30.30
  • Rush Yards: Vanderbilt 109.50 / Florida 175.30
  • Pass Attempts: Vanderbilt 27.50 / Florida 27.70
  • Completion Percentage: Vanderbilt 47.64 / Florida 65.34
  • Passing Yards: Vanderbilt 140.30 / Florida 210.20
  • Total Yards: Vanderbilt 249.8 / Florida 385.5
  • Turnovers: Vanderbilt 1.60 / Florida 1.60

Why Bet the Vanderbilt Commodores Odds at +10?

The Vanderbilt Commodores talked big about how they were going to give No. 1 Alabama a tough way to go in their Week 4 SEC showdown and it sounded great – until the game got underway that is. Unfortunately, the Commodores got completely embarrassed in their 59-0 shutout loss and now it’s back to the drawing board for head coach Derek Mason and his squad.

Vanderbilt was limited to a mind-boggling 40 rushing yards and just 38 passing yards in the loss while quarterback Kyle Shurmur completed just 4 of 15 passes for 18 yards.

“I’d like to think so,” Mason said after the humbling defeat “… We’ll see what Tuesday and Wednesday look like in terms of whether or not this team wakes up with a hangover. We’ve got to get this right.”

“It’s all about the response. It’s only one game,” Mason said… “Right now, we’re sitting at 3-1 and we have to find ourselves getting to four (wins).”

Keep in mind that Taurean Ferguson is suspended. Bryce Lewis (Undisclosed) and Bailey McElwain (foot) are listed on the injury report.

Team Statistics


  • Average Score For: 21
  • Total Yards: 279
  • Rush Yards: 87.5
  • Passing Yards: 191.5


  • Average Score Against: 18
  • Total Yards: 318
  • Rush Yards: 201.25
  • Passing Yards: 116.75

Why bet the Florida Gators Odds at -10?

Florida beat Tennessee 26-20 on a last-second Hail Mary in Week 4 and needed some more late-game heroics to get past Kentucky 28-27 in what looked like a sure loss on Saturday. Unfortunately, football is one of the last things on the mind of head coach Jim McElwain right now after nine players were charged with felonies after they allegedly used stolen credit card information to make purchases from the university bookstore and elsewhere.

The Gators will try to prevent an upset by Vanderbilt in College Football Week 5.

Star wide receiver Antonio Callaway and running back Jordan Scarlett are among the group. Callaway, who led Florida with 721 receiving yards last season, has been charged with a third-degree felony. Scarlett is facing two third-degree felony charges. The running back rushed for 889 yards a season ago and entered the season as the starter.

Florida is averaging 23.7 points per game to Vandy’s 21.0 points per contest, but the Commodores have had the better defense in limiting their opponents to just 18.0 points per game compared to Florida’s defensive average of 26.7 points per contest. More importantly, I like Vanderbilt’s Kyle Shurmur despite his poor performance against Alabama this past weekend and I believe the Commodores are going to respond in a big way for head coach Derek Mason for this Week 5 SEC showdown, not to mention Florida will miss their go-to players in Callaway and Scarlett.

Brandon Powell (ribs), Duke Dawson (Head), Khairi Clark (Calf) are questionable, while Jordan Scarlett, Antonio Callaway, Keivonnis Davis, Richerd Desir-Jones and Rick Wells are out due to suspension.

Team Statistics


  • Average Score For: 23.67
  • Total Yards: 322.34
  • Rush Yards: 121.67
  • Passing Yards: 200.67


  • Average Score Against: 26.67
  • Total Yards: 405
  • Rush Yards: 172.67
  • Passing Yards: 232.33

Team Records

  • All: Vanderbilt 3-1 / Florida 2-1
  • Home: Vanderbilt 2-1 / Florida 1-1
  • Away: Vanderbilt 1-0 / Florida 1-0
  • ATS: Vanderbilt 2-2 / Florida 0-3
  • Over & Under: Vanderbilt 1-2 / Florida 2-1

Latest College Football Week 5 Betting Trends

  • The total went UNDER in 5 of Vanderbilt’s last 5 games on the road
  • Commodores are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games when playing Florida
  • Commodores are 1-21 SU in their last 22 games when playing Florida
  • The total went UNDER in 7 of Florida’s last 10 games
  • Gators are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games at home
  • Gators are 16-4 SU in their last 20 games at home

Expert Final Analysis & Pick

Vanderbilt is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games against a team with a winning record and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following an SU loss while Florida is just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games and 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 home games. Don’t be surprised when the Commodores get the outright road win against the Gators. I won’t be!

College Football Week 5 Pick: Vanderbilt +10