Analyzing the 2017 College Football Odds on Total Season Wins

Florida State at Miami Betting Lines & Expert Pick

Written by on October 5, 2016

It’s a prime-time Sunshine State showdown on Saturday night this week when No. 23 Florida State, which now has no chance of reaching the College Football Playoff with two losses, faces No. 10 Miami, which would be in great shape to win the ACC Coastal Division by taking out the rival Seminoles. And UM is favored in this series in NCAA football odds for the first time in years.

Let’s Take a Closer Look at the Florida State at Miami Betting Lines, Expert Pick & TV Info

When: Saturday, Oct. 8, 8 PM ET
Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami
Opening NCAA Football Lines: Miami -3 (66)

Why Bet on Florida State?

FSU (3-2) was upset 37-35 at home by North Carolina last week. After spotting North Carolina a 21-point lead midway through the first half, FSU flirted with a rally that would have made for its largest comeback victory in the history of Doak Campbell Stadium. North Carolina kicker Nick Weiler saw Florida State take a late one-point lead with the difference being a blocked extra point. But the Tar Heels were able to drive 38 yards in three plays, helped by extra yardage due to a pass interference call, to set the stage for Weiler to atone for his earlier mistake. He nailed a career-best, 54-yard field goal as time to expired to give North Carolina the win and snap the Seminoles’ 22-game home winning streak.

A week after rushing for a career-high 267 yards against South Florida, Dalvin Cook torched UNC for 246 total yards and became the first Seminole to have at least 100 yards rushing (140) and receiving (106) in the same game. Cook scored three touchdowns, two in the second half, and his 41-yard catch-and- run on FSU’s final drive set up Francois for the go-ahead score.

It was Cook’s 15th career 100-yard rushing game. He broke a tie with Travis Minor and now sits in third place in FSU history with 15 career 100- yard rushing games. Only Warrick Dunn (22) and Greg Allen (17) have accomplished the feat more often. Cook pushed his career rushing yards total to 3,334, passing Travis Minor (3,218) on his way to the No. 3 spot in school history behind Dunn (3,959) and Allen (3,769).

Francois had one of the best games of his young career, too. He completed 20 of 32 passes for 372 yards, and he added another 32 yards and a touchdown on the ground. He scored what appeared to be the winning touchdown on a 2-yard run with 23 seconds remaining. FSU actually outgained the Tar Heels, 595-538, and controlled the ball for nearly 35 minutes. North Carolina converted nine of 13 third- down attempts, compared to a 4-for- 11 from FSU.

Why Bet on Miami?

The Hurricanes (4-0) beat Georgia Tech 35-21 last week. Shaquille Quarterman and Joe Jackson each returned fumbles by Georgia Tech quarterback Justin Thomas for touchdowns in a span of less than a minute in the second quarter for UM. In a span of five plays, a 7-7 score ballooned to 28-7 in favor of the visitors. Walton’s 14-yard dash to the end zone was helped by stellar blocking on the perimeter, and two plays later, junior Trent Harris sacked Thomas and forced a fumble. Quarterman scooped the ball up at the Georgia Tech 17-yard line and went untouched into the end zone for the first touchdown of his career. Jackson doubled the fun two plays later on another fumble by Thomas, this one unforced.

Coach Mark Richt improved to 14-0 against Georgia Tech in Atlanta, including an 8-0 record at Georgia and 5-0 as an assistant at Florida State. The win came in Richt’s 200th game as a coach — and his first Atlantic Coast Conference game. Miami had no turnovers. QB Brad Kaaya, who tossed the 50th touchdown pass of his career to move into sole possession of third place in UM history, finished 13-for-19 for 241 yards.

Miami is 4-0 for the sixth time since 2000 and is one of just 16 undefeated teams in the country. This is the first time Miami has been the highest ranked FBS team in the state of Florida since Nov. 14, 2010. Miami and Boise State are the only two schools at the FBS level that have not trailed in any game at any point this season.

Miami has lost six straight in this series. Cook, from Miami, has lit up the hometown team over the last two years, with 379 total yards and five touchdowns. He has scored the game-winning TD in the fourth quarter each season.

The Hurricanes own a 31-29 series advantage over Florida State. Nearly half of the Miami-Florida State games (29 of 60 previous meetings) have been decided by eight points or less, including last year’s match up (FSU won, 29-24). Seven games in the series have been decided by a single point. Miami is 7-0 in those games. Saturday night will mark the 28th time in the last 32 years that at least one team has entered the Miami- Florida State game unbeaten.

My Expert Pick

Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.
Underdog is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 meetings.
Seminoles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Miami.
Road team is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
Under is 7-2- 1 in the last 10 meetings in Miami.

Take Miami in NCAA betting and over the total.