Baltimore vs Cleveland MLB Game Predictions & Betting Odds

Baltimore vs Cleveland | MLB Game Predictions & Betting Odds

Written by on August 30, 2022

It’s a potential American League Wild-Card series preview on Tuesday night when the Baltimore Orioles visit the AL Central-leading Cleveland Guardians, who are favored on the MLB odds.

How to Bet Orioles at Guardians MLB Odds & TV Info

Why Bet on Baltimore?

Baltimore has had an impressive month of August, with a 16-9 record and run differential of plus-21. The Orioles’ starting pitching has led the way since Aug. 21, posting the second-best ERA in the Major Leagues over that span (1.59 ERA). The Orioles’ offense has picked up recently, especially in August, when they have slashed .251/.319/.416 with a .735 OPS.

Stellar rookie catcher Adley Rutschman went 1-for-4 with a stolen base in a 3-1 loss Sunday in Houston. Rutschman singled and stole second in the first inning and struck out in two of his other three at-bats. He’s 3-for-3 in stolen base attempts on the season and two of those swipes have come in August. The rookie has reached base safely in 12 straight contests, posting a .295/.396/.500 line with two homers in that span.

Cedric Mullins went 1-for-3 with a walk and a stolen base Sunday. Mullins singled and stole second base in the first and walked in the third. It was his 28th stolen base of the season and third straight game with a swiped bag. He has an 11-game hitting streak and has a .302/.400/.488 line with six walks and four stolen bases during the streak.

Anthony Santander is batting .298/.357/.511 with 14 doubles, eight homers, 25 runs, 33 RBI, 11 walks, and six hit-by-pitches in 45 games since July 4. Among AL leaders during that time, he is tied for fourth in extra-base hits (22), tied for fifth in RBI, tied for sixth in doubles, eighth in total bases (91), and tied for eighth in hits.

It’s Spenser Watkins (4-4) on the mound Tuesday. Watkins took the loss last Wednesday, allowing two runs on five hits and two walks over six innings against the White Sox. He struck out five. Watkins gave up a two-run single to outfielder Gavin Sheets to open the scoring with one out in the first. The righty has not gone deep into games this season, pitching six innings or more in just four of 17 starts. The 29-year-old has been more effective on the road with a 3.72 ERA and 1.24 WHIP over 38.2 innings in eight outings, compared to a 4.17 ERA and 1.39 WHIP over 45.1 innings in 10 starts at home.

This will be Watkins’ first career start vs. Cleveland.

Why Bet on Cleveland?

The excellent strikeout rate of the Cleveland Guardians hitters has been talked about at length this season, as they have the lowest strikeout percentage in the majors at just 18.5%. Going into this week’s action, rookie Steven Kwan (9.6%) and José Ramírez (10.2%) sit at second and third respectively on the K% leaderboard.

Ramirez has set a career high with 106 RBIs and there’s still over five weeks remaining in the regular season. He trails just New York’s Aaron Judge (109) on the RBI leaderboard across the Majors after notching 43 RBIs in his last 43 games.

What Ramirez is doing hasn’t been seen in nearly two decades in Cleveland. The last player to have at least 106 RBIs in a team’s first 125 games of a season was Travis Hafner in 2006. And if it wasn’t evident enough just how critical Ramirez is to this lineup, the team’s record of 39-15 when he plates at least one run versus its 28-43 record when he fails to record at least one RBI speaks for itself.

Ramirez has 16 games this season with multiple extra-base hits, ahead of the Yankees’ Judge and Braves’ Austin Riley for most in the majors. Ramirez’s 79 such games since 2017 pace the Majors, edging out the Cardinals’ Nolan Arenado (67G); Ramírez is MLB’s overall extra-base hit leader over the same span (406).

James Karinchak (20.0IP), Sam Hentges (14.0IP) and Nick Sadlin (14.0IP) own the three longest active scoreless streaks by A.L. relievers currently on a 26-man roster. Emmanuel Clase has converted 24 consecutive save opportunities, matching the 3rd-longest streak in club history; only Jose Mesa (38SV, 28SV) has compiled longer such streaks.

It’s Cal Quantrill on the mound here. Quantrill (10-5) allowed five hits and a walk while striking out six over seven shutout innings to earn the win last Wednesday over the Padres. Quantrill was able to keep his former team quiet. It was the right-hander’s third scoreless outing in his last four starts. He’s allowed eight runs in 32 innings in August, good for a 2.25 ERA with a 23:5 K:BB. For the season, he’s pitched to a 3.59 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 94:38 K:BB through 143 innings across 24 starts.

Cleveland has won each of Quantrill’s last nine starts (3.15 ERA). He hasn’t faced Baltimore this year.

Game Trends

  • Orioles are 7-0 in their last 7 Tuesday games.
  • Orioles are 10-2 in their last 12 during game 1 of a series.
  • Guardians are 4-0 in their last 4 games following an off day.
  • Guardians are 5-1 in their last 6 during game 1 of a series.
  • Orioles are 8-21 in the last 29 meetings.

Expert Prediction

  • Guardians 5, Orioles 4
 
 

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