Baltimore vs Toronto 2022 MLB Expert Betting Analysis

Baltimore vs Toronto | 2022 MLB Expert Betting Analysis

Written by on August 16, 2022

Toronto ace Alek Manoah is 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA in 11 innings this year against the Baltimore Orioles and he faces them at Rogers Centre on Tuesday as a heavy favorite on the MLB odds.

How to Bet Orioles at Blue Jays MLB Odds & TV Info

  • When: Tuesday, 7:07 PM ET
  • Where: Rogers Centre
  • Probable pitchers (away/home): Dean Kremer/Alek Manoah
  • TV: MLB Extra Innings
  • Stream/gameday audio:
  • Opening MLB Lines: Blue Jays -220, Orioles +200 (total 8.5)

Why Bet on Baltimore?

First baseman Ryan Mountcastle was back in the Orioles’ starting lineup for Monday’s game against the Blue Jays and thus should be fine for Tuesday as well. Mountcastle took a seat for Sunday’s series finale against the Rays after being hit in the left hand/wrist area during Saturday’s loss to Tampa Bay. The 25-year-old has 15 homers and 55 RBIs.

Anthony Santander is batting .345/.389/.595 (29-for-84) with six doubles, five homers, 12 runs scored, and 14 RBI since the All-Star Break. Among AL leaders since the Break, his 50 total bases and .595 slugging percentage are tied for third, his .345 batting average and .984 OPS are fourth, and his 29 hits are tied for fourth. Jorge Mateo is batting .337/.370/.642 (32-for-95) with eight doubles, three triples, five home runs, 19 runs scored, 14 RBI and six stolen bases since July 10. Among AL leaders during that time, he leads with three triples, is third with 16 extra-base hits, tied for fifth with 61 total bases, and tied for seventh in runs scored. Mateo leads the AL and is second in MLB with 27 stolen bases.

Cedric Mullins is slashing .326/.360/.522 with three doubles, two homers, six runs scored, five RBI, three walks, and two stolen bases in August. He is second in the AL and tied for fourth in MLB with 24 stolen bases. Mullins is one of five players with 35+ extra-base hits and 20+ stolen bases this season (26-2B, 3B, 10 HR) along with Kansas City’s Bobby Witt Jr. (39 XBH, 22 SB), Seattle’s Julio Rodríguez (39 XBH, 21 SB), Los Angeles-NL’s Trea Turner (50 XBH, 20 SB), and Tampa Bay’s Randy Arozarena (42 XBH, 21 SB).

It’s Dean Kremer (4-4) on the mound Tuesday. Kremer allowed four runs over 5 2/3 innings last Thursday in a loss to the Red Sox. Kremer gave up six hits, including RBI doubles to Alex Verdugo and Tommy Pham, and also allowed an RBI sacrifice fly to Xander Bogaerts prior to departing. He recorded six strikeouts and only handed out one free pass. He has a 3.69 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 49/15 K/BB ratio across 63 1/3 innings (12 starts).

Kremer has pitched to a 2-2 record with a 3.98 ERA (14 ER/31.2 IP) in six road starts this year. He has gone 0-1 with an 11.32 ERA (13 ER/10.1 IP) in three career starts against Toronto.

Why Bet on Toronto?

All-Star catcher Alejandro Kirk got Monday’s game off but should be in there Tuesday. Outfielder and leadoff hitter George Springer was activated from the injured list ahead of Monday’s game. Springer has been battling a nagging injury to his right elbow but only required a minimum stint after being placed on the IL on Aug. 6. The 32-year-old’s return to the lineup comes at an opportune time for the Blue Jays, who have struggled to a 4-7 record since the trade deadline (as of Monday). Springer owns a .795 OPS with 18 home runs, 49 RBIs, and 10 stolen bases across 89 games this season.

Outfielder Bradley Zimmer was designated for assignment in a corresponding move. Zimmer was never able to make an impact beyond as a defensive replacement this season and his role was further limited by the addition of free-agent Jackie Bradley Jr. last week. The 29-year-old Zimmer was brought in to provide some depth as a left-handed bat and appeared in 77 games, hitting .105/.209/.237.

Toronto batters rank 1st in the AL in home average (.266), home OBP (.330), and home OPS (.778), while ranking 2nd in home SLG (.448). The pitching staff has posted a 4.11 ERA during home contests (10th in the AL) with a .252 opponents’ AVG (13th), and a 1.24 WHIP (7th).

Blue Jay batters have combined for a hard hit (95+ MPH) percentage of 44.6, the top rate in MLB (2nd: ATL – 43.3), while their average exit velocity of 90.4 MPH is also the highest mark in the Majors (2nd: NYY – 90.1).

It’s ace Alek Manoah on the mound Tuesday. Manoah (12-5) did not factor into the decision last Tuesday, allowing three runs on eight hits and one walk over five innings in a 6-5 loss to the Orioles. He struck out five. Toronto’s ace got off to a rocky start, surrendering two runs in the first inning and proceeding to allow one more run to score in the third. While he was unable to record the quality start, Manoah was able to get through five innings for the 22nd time this season despite not being at his best.

Manoah has faced Baltimore twice this year, going 0-1 with a 2.45 ERA (3 ER/11.0 IP) and a 1.00 WHIP. Over 5 career starts against the O’s, he has kept a 2-0 record and a 2.96 ERA (9 ER/27.1 IP) with 34 punchouts and a 0.88 WHIP.

Game Trends

  • Orioles are 5-0 in their last 5 Tuesday games.
  • Orioles are 9-2 in their last 11 during game 2 of a series.
  • Blue Jays are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Blue Jays are 1-5 in their last 6 during game 2 of a series.
  • Orioles are 17-35 in the last 52 meetings.

Expert Prediction

  • Blue Jays 5, Orioles 2

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