Braves vs Phillies MLB Odds, Preview & Prediction.

Braves vs Phillies MLB Odds, Preview & Prediction

Written by on July 26, 2019

Big series in the NL East opens Friday night from Philadelphia as the surging Phillies look to close the gap on the division-leading Atlanta Braves. Atlanta appears to have the pitching edge for the opener behind NL Rookie of the Year candidate Mike Soroka and the Braves are slight MLB Betting favorites.

How to Bet Braves vs Phillies MLB Odds & Game Info

Why Bet on Atlanta?

The Braves remain without a key member of their bullpen in right-hander Jacob Webb. The Braves were hopeful of bringing Webb back after the minimum 10 days — he was placed on the injured list on July 13 – but manager Brian Snitker said elbow is “still a little tight.” Snitker suggested that Webb will be out for at least a couple more weeks. This could expedite the Braves’ pursuit of relief help, as Webb has been one of the few consistent relievers for Atlanta this year.

Monitor the status of shortstop Dansby Swanson as he didn’t start Wednesday after suffering a heel injury on Tuesday. Swanson is day-to-day, and Johan Camargo would play short if Swanson sat here. Outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. is one of two players in the majors to have at least 22 homers and 22 steals. Milwaukee’s Christian Yelich is the other. Only three Braves have ever gone 30/30, with Ron Gant doing it last in 1990 and 1991.

Stellar Braves rookie Mike Soroka (10-2) took the loss Saturday as the Nats topped Atlanta 5-3, giving up four runs on nine hits and two walks over six innings while striking out four. The right-hander gave up more than three earned runs for the second time in his last three starts and only the third time this season, leading to his first loss since April 18. Soroka will carry a 2.46 ERA and 86:24 K:BB through 102.1 innings into his next outing Friday.

Soroka has a 3.63 FIP and a 4.38 ERA over his past seven starts. The recently unlucky rookie allowed more than three runs in an inning for just the third time in 22 career starts on Saturday. Soroka has made one career start vs. the Phillies and he didn’t get a decision in allowing four runs and nine hits over 5.2 innings. He struck out six and walked two.

Team Stats

  • Runs: 5.27
  • Hits: 9.08
  • Walks: 3.62
  • Strike Outs: 8.78
  • Runs: 4.78
  • Hits: 8.71
  • Walks: 3.69
  • Strike Outs: 8.58

Why Bet on Philadelphia?

The Phils have lost utility man Brad Miller to the 10-day injured list with a tight right hip flexor. To take his spot, the team activated Sean Rodriguez from the injured list. He can also play in several positions.

Philadelphia is playing well again, winning five of six, to get back in the NL East race. If the Phillies should sweep this three-game series at Citizens Bank Park and chop the Braves’ 5 1/2-game lead, it could get interesting. They have shaved four games off their deficit in a week, as the Braves come to Philadelphia on the heels of a two-game sweep at the hands of the lowly Kansas City Royals. The Phillies swept the Braves in the only other series they played at Citizens Bank Park this year, their opening series of the season.

Braves vs Phillies is going to be a close one.

“We’re rolling,” catcher Andrew Knapp said. “We’re pretty confident in the way we’re playing right now. Especially to win these two series on the road in Detroit and Pittsburgh going into a big series against Atlanta, it’s huge. It’s definitely a big series coming up.”

Philadelphia’s Jake Arrieta allowed one run on six hits with two walks and four strikeouts across 5.2 innings during a no-decision against the Pirates last Friday. The veteran right-hander only threw 87 pitches, but he departed with the bases loaded and two outs in the sixth. Juan Nicasio shut the door in that frame, and the Phillies then took over and cruised to a 6-1 win.

If Arrieta had recorded one more out, he would still have been the pitcher of record when the club took the lead for good. Arrieta is 8-7 with a 4.40 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, .280 batting average and 91 strikeouts in 118.2 innings this season. Since Arrieta announced that he has a bone spur the size of a marble in his right elbow, he has allowed just two earned runs in 10 2/3 innings over his last two starts.

Team Stats

  • Runs: 4.76
  • Hits: 8.25
  • Walks: 3.64
  • Strike Outs: 8.78
  • Runs: 4.92
  • Hits: 9.11
  • Walks: 3.38
  • Strike Outs: 8.46

Braves vs Phillies MLB Betting Trends

  • Braves are 9-1 in Soroka’s last 10 starts vs. National League East
  • Phillies are 4-9 in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a winning record
  • Braves are 13-6 SU in their last 19 games on the road
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta’s last 5 games against an opponent in the National League
  • Phillies are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games played in July
  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia’s last 9 games against Atlanta

Expert Final Score Prediction for Braves vs Phillies

Atlanta Braves 5 – Philadelphia Phillies 4