Brewers vs Pirates MLB Odds, Preview & Prediction.

Brewers vs Pirates MLB Odds, Preview & Prediction

Written by on July 5, 2019

The NL Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers just took two of three at home vs. the division-rival Pittsburgh Pirates last weekend in Milwaukee, and the teams open a three-game set in Pittsburgh on Friday with the Brew Crew favored on the MLB Odds.

How to Bet Brewers vs Pirates MLB Odds & Game Info

Why Bet on Milwaukee?

Will the Brewers have outfielder Lorenzo Cain for this series opener? He didn’t start Thursday vs. the Reds and has a lingering right thumb injury, but it probably was more of a routine day of rest. Ryan Braun also got Thursday off.

Also on Thursday, Milwaukee purchased the contract of right-hander Deolis Guerra from Triple-A San Antonio. Guerra hasn’t appeared in a major league game since 2017, but he was sporting a 2.61 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and 48/10 K/BB ratio through 41 1/3 innings this season with the Brewers’ Triple-A team. The 30-year-old right-hander will likely work in long relief in the majors.

Reigning NL MVP Christian Yelich leads the majors in homers and is the betting favorite to win the Home Run Derby on Monday in Cleveland. The Brewers right fielder, seeded No. 1 in the field, will face 20-year-old Toronto rookie Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., seeded eighth. Guerrero’s father, Vlad Sr., won the Home Run Derby in 2007, and they will become the first father and son to participate in the spectacle since Cecil and Prince Fielder. Yelich is the first reigning MVP to participate in the Home Run Derby since Albert Pujols in 2009. For the seventh time in franchise history, the Brewers will send at least 4 players to the All-Star Game.

The Brewers’ Zach Davies (7-2) struck out two and yielded one run on six hits and two walks over 5.1 innings in a no-decision against Pittsburgh last Sunday. It was a solid outing for Davies, who had recorded a 6.20 ERA over 24.2 innings this month prior to Sunday’s start. The 26-year-old coughed up a run in the first inning but kept the Pirates’ bats mostly silent for the rest of the afternoon. The Pirates are hitting an even .300 in three games against Davies, but he is 2-0 with a 2.95 ERA against them.

Through 19 appearances, including 17 starts, the 26-year-old Davies has a strong 3.24 ERA and so-so 1.40 WHIP, getting by mostly on good fortune and a potent Brewers offense. He hasn’t won a start since June 8. Davies is 4-5 with a 5.08 ERA in 12 career starts against the Pirates (62ip, 35er), including 2-0 with a 2.95 ERA in 3 starts this season (18.1ip, 6er). He is 2-3 with a 4.99 ERA in 6 career starts at PNC Park (30.2ip, 17er).

Team Stats

  • Runs: 4.75
  • Hits: 8.36
  • Walks: 3.80
  • Strike Outs: 9.57
  • Runs: 4.83
  • Hits: 8.76
  • Walks: 3.41
  • Strike Outs: 9.30

Why Bet on Pittsburgh?

Young Pirates slugger Josh Bell is part of the Home Run Derby field on Monday in Cleveland. Bell, the Pirates’ first baseman, is seeded third in the eight-man event and will face Braves outfielder and No. 6 seed Ronald Acuna in the first round. The last Pirates player to participate in the Home Run Derby was Andrew McCutchen in 2012 at Kansas City. He was eliminated in the first round.

Bell was picked as a reserve first baseman for the actual All-Star Game after losing out to the Braves’ Freddie Freeman in the fan balloting at the position. However, it’s likely that NL manager Dave Roberts of the Dodgers will use Bell as the designated hitter, earning Bell a start in his first All-Star Game appearance. Bell recorded 80 RBI through the team’s first 85 games. That figure is tied for the second-most RBI in Pirates history through the team’s first 85 games along with Adam Comorosky (1930) and Willie Stargell (1971). Paul Waner leads the way for the Pirates with 87 RBI through the team’s first 85 games of the 1927 season.

Brewers vs Pirates is going to be a close one.

Pittsburgh’s pinch hitters have a Major League-leading .344 average and 31 RBI in pinch-hit situations. Pittsburgh’s seven pinch-hit home runs this season are also tied for the most in MLB along with the Diamondbacks, Rockies, Dodgers, and Giants. The Major League single-season team record for highest batting average as pinch hitters (min: 100 at-bats) is held by the 1927 Cardinals (.346).

The Bucs’ Steven Brault (3-1) struck out five and allowed one run on five hits and three walks over 4.2 innings in a no-decision against the Brewers last Sunday. Brault needed 97 pitches (61 strikes) to get through 4.2 frames, but it was the eighth straight appearance in which the 27-year-old allowed three or fewer runs. Brault will carry a 4.29 ERA into Friday’s home rematch with Milwaukee. The lefty has posted a 2.45 ERA over his past eight outings and a 2.01 mark in six starts since rejoining the rotation.

Brault is 1-2 with a 3.83 ERA (44.2ip/19er) in 13 career appearances (seven starts) against the Brewers. He won his first Major League game on 9/11/17 at Miller Park, giving up one hit in 6.0 scoreless innings.

Team Stats

  • Runs: 4.74
  • Hits: 9.41
  • Walks: 2.67
  • Strike Outs: 7.85
  • Runs: 5.28
  • Hits: 9.16
  • Walks: 3.63
  • Strike Outs: 8.94

Brewers vs Pirates MLB Betting Trends

  • Under is 3-0-1 in Davies’ last 4 road starts vs. Pirates
  • Brewers are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Pittsburgh
  • Brewers are 1-6 SU in their last 7 games on the road
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Milwaukee’s last 5 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
  • Pirates are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games at home
  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh’s last 9 games against an opponent in the National League Central division

Expert Final Score Prediction for Brewers vs Pirates

Milwaukee Brewers 6 – Pittsburgh Pirates 4