Cincinnati vs Boston MLB Betting Favorites & Analysis

Cincinnati vs Boston | MLB Betting Favorites & Analysis

It’s a matchup of two of the hardest-throwing young pitchers in the majors on Wednesday when the Cincinnati Reds and Boston Red Sox conclude their two-game interleague set. The Red Sox are favored on the MLB odds.

How to Bet Reds at Red Sox MLB Odds & TV Info

Why Bet on Cincinnati?

This series is the Reds first visit to Fenway Park since 2014. The Reds have played the fifth-toughest schedule in the Major Leagues. In games already played, their opponents have posted a winning percentage of .534. The winning percentage for the teams remaining on the Reds’ schedule is .501. The Reds are 4-8-3 in 15 series this season (3-3-1 home, 1-5-2 road), including 4-1-2 in their last 7 series.

The Reds remain without second baseman and 2021 NL Rookie of the Year Jonathan India. India’s right hamstring still isn’t fully healed yet, but he’s resumed baseball activities and will likely progress to a minor league rehab assignment within the next week. He should be back mid-June.

It’s fire-balling rookie Hunter Greene (2-6), the former No. 2 overall pick in the draft, on the mound. Greene yielded five earned runs over five innings of work last Thursday versus the Cubs. He earned a win for the effort — just the second MLB win of his career — thanks to a big outburst from the Cincinnati offense. Greene struck out six but issued two walks and surrendered seven hits, including three home runs. That brings him to 15 total home runs allowed through his first nine big league starts. The raw 22-year-old right-hander will carry a 5.89 ERA into Boston.

Earlier this season, Greene took the loss in a game the Reds no-hit Pittsburgh – he threw 7.1 no-hit innings as part of it. The game’s only run scored in the bottom of the eighth inning. After Greene issued a pair of one-out walks to Rodolfo Castro and Michael Perez to push his pitch count to 118, manager David Bell pulled him in favor of Art Warren.

When Greene throws a baseball it becomes a weapon, which will make even the guy wielding it a little nervous. But to succeed in the majors he needed to gain the confidence to throw it on the inner part of the plate, to make the opponent respect the inside pitch by brushing him back. On April 16 at the Dodgers, he threw 39 pitches at more than 100 miles per hour, the most recorded in the pitch-tracking era (since 2008). His 13 pitches at 101mph were the most ever recorded by a starter in a game.

“And I throw 100,” he says, “so it’s not comfortable when you have 100 mph coming up and in at you.”

Greene will get his strikeouts, but the fastball is frankly pretty straight, and for all of its velocity major-league hitters can punish it even in triple digits. The key for the Red Sox will be to avoid falling behind, because if they can get into fastball counts they should be able to do damage.

Why Bet on Boston?

The Red Sox are 12-1 against the Reds since Interleague play began in 1997, having won each of the last 9 games entering this series. The Sox are 5-0 vs. Cincinnati at Fenway Park. The Red Sox’s .923 winning % against the Reds is the highest by any opponent against the club and the Red Sox’ highest against any club.

Xander Bogaerts is 1 game shy of tying Everett Scott for the most games played at shortstop in Red Sox history, and 2 starts shy of tying Scott for the most starts at the position in franchise history. Bogaerts was 1 of 4 players to record at least an .850 OPS in each of the 4 seasons from 2018-21, joined by Bryce Harper, Freddie Freeman, and Mookie Betts. Bogaerts has won 4 Silver Slugger Awards at shortstop (2015, ‘16, ‘19, ‘21), the 5th-most ever by a player at the position. The only shortstops to win more are Barry Larkin (9), Cal Ripken Jr. (8), Alex Rodriguez (7),

The Red Sox are the only team in the majors to feature 3 players batting .300+ with an .800+ OPS: Bogaerts (.328, .877), Rafael Devers (.340, .972), and J.D. Martinez (.369, 1.002). The Red Sox also lead the majors in players with 20+ RBI (7) and 25+ runs scored (5), and are tied for the most players with 15+ XBH (6) and Derek Jeter (5).

It’s converted reliever Garrett Whitlock (1-1) on the mound Wednesday. Whitlock pitched six innings of two-run ball Friday against the Orioles but then watched as the Red Sox bullpen blew an 8-2 lead by giving up 10 runs in three innings. He’s pitched well in six starts, but since the Red Sox invested very little in their bullpen over the winter, he’s winless since joining the rotation. The right-hander has a 3.49 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 44:11 K:BB across 38.2 innings this season.

Prior to his last start, Whitlock was in what was really his first slump as a major-league pitcher as he’s struggled a bit in adjusting to the rotation. His pace was slowing down, and the command just wasn’t there with the consistency we saw in the bullpen. That’s not to say he was bad, to be fair, but rather not dominant as we’d gotten used to. He wasn’t dominant in his last start either, but he looked better against Baltimore. When he pitches with confidence and works quickly, he’s done a better job of keeping offense off balance and painting corners.

Whitlock has allowed 3 runs or fewer in 6 of his 7 starts. He has a 4.34 ERA (14 ER/29.0 IP) as a starter. Opponents have hit .054 against his changeup this year (2-for-37, 9 SO). His 2.49 career ERA is the 4th-best career ERA by a Red Sox pitcher in the Live Ball Era (min. 100.0 IP). He trails only Koji Uehara (2.19), Jonathan Papelbon (2.44), and Craig Kimbrel (2.44).

Game Trends

  • Reds are 2-6 in their last 8 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Reds are 6-21 in their last 27 during game 2 of a series.
  • Reds are 3-11 in their last 14 Wednesday games.
  • Red Sox are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
  • Red Sox are 9-4 in their last 13 overall.
  • Red Sox are 3-9 in their last 12 during game 2 of a series.

Expert Prediction: Red Sox 6, Reds 3


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