Houston Astros vs New York Mets MLB Betting Favorites & Analysis

Houston Astros vs New York Mets | MLB Betting Favorites & Analysis

Written by on June 28, 2022

It’s a potential World Series preview on Tuesday night when the Houston Astros visit the New York Mets and TBS has the national telecast. The game is a pick’em on the MLB odds.

How to Bet Astros at Mets MLB Odds & TV Info

  • When: Tuesday, 7:10 PM ET
  • Where: Citi Field
  • Probable pitchers (away/home): Framber Valdez/Carlos Carrasco
  • TV: TBS
  • Stream/gameday audio: TBS app
  • Opening MLB Lines: Mets -110, Astros -110 (total 8)

Why Bet on Houston?

The Astros didn’t need to travel for this series because they completed a four-game series at the Yankees on Sunday with a 6-3 loss in 10 innings. Excellent rookie shortstop Jeremy Pena went 1-for-4 with a double and a run scored Sunday. Pena was activated from the injured list after recovering from a thumb injury. He struck out in his other three at-bats but managed a two-out double in the fourth inning prior to coming around to score. Pena is slashing .277/.332/.472 line across 214 plate appearances.

Former All-Star outfielder Michael Brantley was removed in the top of the eighth inning of Sunday’s game with right shoulder discomfort. He went 0-for-3 with two strikeouts prior to departing. Brantley was serving as the Astros’ designated hitter for the series finale so his shoulder discomfort must have surfaced at some point during one of his plate appearances earlier in the game. J.J. Matijevic entered the game as a replacement for Brantley, who can be viewed as day-to-day.

Yordan Álvarez, who is second in the majors with 22 homers, was absent from the Astros’ starting lineup on Sunday due to hand soreness. Álvarez was intentionally walked as a pinch-hitter in the ninth inning. Alvarez hurt the hand on a swing July 18, sat out a game against the White Sox the next day and had played every game since. Manager Dusty Baker said Alvarez’s hand is still sore, and the 24-year-old may need regular rest.

It’s lefty Framber Valdez (7-3, 2.90 ERA) on the mound Tuesday. Valdez allowed three runs over six innings last Thursday in a no-decision against the Yankees. He gave up a three-run homer to Giancarlo Stanton in the opening frame, but managed to keep the Yankees off the scoreboard over his final five innings. He finished with seven strikeouts and has allowed three earned runs or fewer in 11 consecutive starts since April 25.

Based on ERA alone Valdez is on pace for a career-best season. He has a career-low barrel rate of 2.5 percent, which ranks in the 95th percentile in baseball. In fact, Valdez is doing a terrific job of limiting damage done by opposing hitters compared to past seasons. Valdez now throws the ball harder, striking out fewer hitters and allowing more contact, but his results have improved. Opposing hitters are also generating more contact at a 79.7 percent clip compared to 75.4 percent last season.

Luis Garcia was initially in line to start the Astros’ first game of the week, but he’s instead been pushed back two days in the schedule to start the team’s standalone game against the Yankees in Houston on Thursday.

Why Bet on NY Mets?

The Mets come off a 3-2 loss in Miami on Sunday as they were going for the three-game sweep. Brandon Nimmo went 2-for-4 with a solo home run and a double in the loss. Nimmo led off the game with double to right field off Daniel Castano. He got to Castano once again in the third with a solo home run to center field to tie the game. The 29-year-old outfielder is hitting .278/.367/.433 with five homers, 42 runs scored, and 24 RBI across 289 plate appearances.

Second baseman Jeff McNeil, the team’s leading hitter at .327, continues to manage right hamstring tightness and missed a fifth straight game Sunday. Manager Buck Showalter is confident McNeil will be ready for Tuesday’s matchup, however. McNeil is batting .358 (19-53) with seven runs, four doubles, a home run, seven RBI, five walks with a .433 OBP and a .491 SLG in 16 games this month.

Reliever Adam Ottavino has allowed one run in his last 19 games, posting a 0.50 ERA (one earned run/18.0 innings) with nine hits, five walks and 18 strikeouts. Overall, he is 2-1 with a 2.60 ERA (eight earned runs/27.2 innings) with 10 walks and 35 strikeouts. He is holding right-handed hitters to a .147 (10-68) average this season. Edwin Díaz has recorded 16 saves this season, tied for the sixth-most in the majors. He leads the major leagues among relievers with 57 strikeouts. Diaz’s 17.29 strikeouts per nine innings is the best in the majors. The Mets are 28-2 when Díaz appears in a game this year.

It’s Carlos Carrasco (8-3, 4.42 ERA) on the mound Tuesday. Carrasco was pulled from last Wednesday’s start against the Astros due to tightness in his lower back.  Carrasco had been very ineffective before exiting, allowing five runs — and three home runs — before leaving in the third inning. He took the loss. Carrasco had an MRI on his back but nothing turned up and he should be fine for Tuesday.

The Mets are already without ace Jacob deGrom (stress reaction in his scapula), blockbuster free-agent signing Max Scherzer (strained oblique), and breakout starter Tylor Megill (strained shoulder).

Game Trends

  • Astros are 9-2 in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Astros are 8-1 in their last 9 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Astros are 35-16 in their last 51 Tuesday games.
  • Mets are 26-7 in their last 33 games following an off day.
  • Mets are 21-6 in their last 27 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Mets are 20-6 in their last 26 during game 1 of a series.

Expert Prediction

  • Mets 4, Astros 3
 
 

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