Can the Reds Steal a Win? MLB Baseball Lines for Philadelphia vs Cincinnati

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The Philadelphia Phillies are expected again to be without two-time NL MVP Bryce Harper on Wednesday – he’s on the paternity list – as the Phils continue their series in Cincinnati. Philadelphia is a short favorite on the MLB odds

2024 MLB Expert Analysis Philadelphia at Cincinnati | MyBookie Sportsbook MLB Week 4

How to Bet Phillies at Reds MLB Odds & TV Info

When: Wednesday, 6:40 PM ET
Where: Great American Ballpark
Probable pitchers (away/home): Spencer Turnbull/Nick Lodolo
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/gameday audio: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/
Opening MLB Lines: Phillies -112, Reds -123 (total 4.5)

Why Bet on Philadelphia Phillies?

On Monday, the Phillies put two-time NL MVP Bryce Harper on the paternity list, meaning he isn’t due back until Thursday. The 31-year-old is batting .241 with four home runs and 14 RBIs this season and was in the midst of a six-game hitting streak. Harper and his wife Kayla are expecting their third child.

Utilityman Kody Clemens was called up from Triple-A Lehigh Valley to take Harper’s spot on the 26-man roster. Clemens started at first base on Monday night and went 2-for-4 with a three-run homer and a double in the win over the Reds but didn’t start Tuesday and likely won’t Wednesday because Cincinnati is using another lefty starter and Clemens struggles against them.

It’s right-hander Spencer Turnbull (2-0, 1.23 ERA, 0.77 WHIP) on the mound for the Phillies. He earned the win last Friday against the White Sox, allowing one hit and two walks over seven scoreless innings. He struck out six. Turnbull carried a no-hitter into the seventh inning but allowed a one-out single to right field to Gavin Sheets. Turnbull threw a no-hitter with the Tigers on May 18, 2021, but he was unlikely to finish one Friday, even if he had kept the bid intact. He threw 92 pitches in seven innings, and would not have thrown more than 105-110.

“I thought about it a couple times, but you try not to,” Turnbull said about throwing a second no-hitter.

Turnbull’s first two months with the Phillies could not have gone any better after he signed a one-year, $2 million contract in February to be an insurance policy for the rotation. There was no guarantee that he would make the Opening Day roster. Among qualified pitchers, Turnbull ranks fifth in ERA, third in WHIP, and second in batting average against in all of MLB. The sweeper has been one of the biggest keys to success for Turnbull this season.

He is using his sweeper more often, throwing it 35.1% of the time, compared to a 21.6% career usage rate. Opponents are hitting just .133 off the pitch with a .267 SLG and .235 wOBA. Even better, Turnbull has a projected .214 xBA, .254 xSLG, and .262 xwOBA with his sweeper this year. Turnbull’s sweeper is characterized by its high spin rate and vertical drop, two factors that make the pitch deceptive against hitters from both sides of the plate.

Even as good as Turnbull has been, he could be moved to the bullpen sooner than expected due to Taijuan Walker potentially returning from his shoulder injury next week. Walker was originally expected to require at least three or four rehab outings, but the veteran now appears ready to go after just two starts in the minors. That will likely shorten Turnbull’s time in the rotation. He hasn’t pitched more than 59 innings in the majors since 2019. Turnbull is 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA in 16 career innings vs. Cincinnati.

Phils shortstop Trea Turner has stolen 40 straight bases without getting caught, which is the longest such streak by any major league player since Ichiro Suzuki stole 45 straight from 4/29/06-5/16/07. Turner’s 86.3% career success rate ranks 2nd in MLB history.

Philadelphia Betting Odds to Win
MLB Money Line

Why Bet on Cincinnati Reds?

The Reds are far from healthy with a few pitchers, outfielder TJ Friedl and infielder Matt McLain all on the injured list, and second baseman Jonathan India and outfielder Jake Fraley day-to-day but still on the active roster despite battling injuries. India has missed the past three as he battles a nasty illness. Santiago Espinal has been playing second for the most part.

Cincinnati leads the majors in steals and is on pace for 287, which would rank third in club history (310 in 1910 and 291 in 1911). Since 1913, only 2 MLB teams reached 300 stolen bases in a season: The 1976 Oakland A’s (341) and the 1985 St. Louis Cardinals (314). The Reds have only had 22 first-to-third opportunities when running the bases but reached safely in 11 of their 13 attempts.

It’s lefty Nick Lodolo (2-0, 0.75) on the mound here. Lodolo earned the win last Friday over the Angels, allowing one run on seven hits over 6.1 innings. He struck out six. While not as dominant as his first outing, Lodolo turned in an efficient performance against the Halos, needing just 80 pitches (57 strikes) to record his first quality start of the season. If he needed any more extra adrenaline, Lodolo was making his first home start since May 6, 2023.

Lodolo’s biggest strength is his ability to generate swings and misses with his breaking ball. The Angels only whiffed at four curveballs from Lodolo. He found different ways to be effective, and it started with his command.

“Nick prepared himself and went through a lot to get back out there,” Reds manager David Bell said. “He has been great. Tonight, he definitely set the tone by throwing strikes. He had really good stuff to go along with it. And he attacked their hitters.”

The 26-year-old Lodolo has allowed just one run through his first 12 innings this year – he began the season on the 15-day injured list (left calf tenosynovitis) — after he pitched to a 6.29 ERA across seven starts in an injury-plagued 2023 campaign.

Lodolo is 2-2 with a 2.22 ERA in four career starts vs. the Phillies. In a 3-2 walkoff loss on April 8, 2023, at Philadelphia, Lodolo became only the fourth Reds lefty since 1893, when the pitcher’s mound was moved to its current distance, to record at least 7.0 scoreless innings & 12 strikeouts or more.

Ahead of Tuesday’s game, the Reds activated lefty reliever Sam Moll (shoulder) from the 15-day injured list. The 32-year-old pitched a career-high 62 1/3 innings with the Athletics and Reds last season with a 3.03 ERA and 68/30 K/BB ratio. Fellow reliever Casey Legumina was sent down in a corresponding move. In Monday’s loss to the Phillies, Legumina came on in the eighth inning and allowed a three-run home run to Kody Clemens.

Cincinnati has lost four of its past five season series against Philadelphia since 2018.

Cincinnati Betting Odds to Win
MLB Money Line

Phillies vs Reds Expert Prediction

Reds 4, Phillies 3

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