Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee MLB Odds & Matchup Stats

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee | MLB Odds & Matchup Stats

Written by on August 17, 2022

A potential National League Division Series preview between the Dodgers and Brewers continues on Wednesday with LA favored on the MLB odds behind Cy Young contender Tony Gonsolin.

How to Bet Dodgers at Brewers MLB Odds & TV Info

Why Bet on LA Dodgers?

The Dodgers got some bad news early this week in ruling out presumed ace Walker Buehler for the season as he will have elbow surgery on Aug. 23. Buehler had surgery back in June to remove a bone spur from his elbow and he’s also been dealing with a Grade 2 flexor strain. The Dodgers were vague in their description of Buehler’s new injury because an initial MRI did not provide enough clarity. The Dodgers won’t learn the specifics until Dr. Neal ElAttrache conducts the procedure on Aug. 23. If it’s Tommy John surgery, that would likely knock him out until 2024.

Buehler, 28, underwent Tommy John surgery shortly after the Dodgers drafted him out of Vanderbilt with the 24th overall pick in 2015. From 2018-2021, he established himself as one of the predominant arms in the sport, going 39-13 with a 2.82 ERA and 620 strikeouts in 564 regular-season innings. Losing Buehler is a significant blow for the Dodgers, who elected not to trade for a starting pitcher at the Trade Deadline. Part of that thinking was they were hopeful to have a pitcher like Buehler back in the fold.

“It’s certainly a blow,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said. “We’re better with Walker on our ballclub. But there’s just nothing we can do about it. I still believe that we have enough guys to get through October to prevent runs. But yeah, I mean, we wanted Walker to be a part of this.”

Tony Gonsolin has been the surprise ace this season and takes the mound Wednesday. Gonsolin (14-1) gave up one earned run on two hits and three walks while striking out three over 6.2 innings to earn the win in an 8-3 victory over the Royals last Friday. Gonsolin retired the first 16 batters he faced and carried a no-hitter into the seventh inning. All of the offense the Royals mustered against Gonsolin came on an RBI double before he exited the game with a 5-1 lead after throwing 85 pitches.

The 28-year-old right-hander has now strung together two excellent starts in a row after some brief struggles. He is tied for second in the Major Leagues in wins (14), fourth in ERA (2.24), third in WHIP (0.89), first in batting average against (.173), and first in winning percentage (.933). Gonsolin has never faced the Brewers.

“He works really hard in between starts, whether it’s in the weight room or on the mound in his bullpen sessions. And he’s a really smart guy. When you’ve got all that going for you, I think it’s pretty easy seeing why he’s having success,” shortstop Trea Turner said of Gonsolin.

Currently, the Dodgers are six games deep into a 22-game swatch of their schedule against teams outside of the NL West. After that, 29 of their final 32 games are in-division contests.

Why Bet on Milwaukee?

Top catcher Omar Narváez began a rehab assignment with Triple-A Nashville on Tuesday. Narváez has missed most of this month with a left quad strain but is ready to test things out in game action. It’s not clear how many rehab games he might need before being activated.

Narvaez has played 60 games on the season, hitting .237/.324/.363. That’s amounts to a wRC+ of 94, or 6% below the league average hitter, but slightly above the league average of 88 wRC+ for catchers. The left-handed hitting Narvaez and the switch-hitting Victor Caratini have formed a platoon this year.

Outfielder Christian Yelich, a Southern California native, is a career .311 hitter with 10 HR and 23 RBI in 48 games against the Dodgers, posting a .399 OBP/.563 SLG/.962 OPS. Since joining the Brewers in 2018, Yelich is batting .339 (21-for-62) with 6 HR and 11 RBI in 18 games, posting a .423 OBP/.726 SLG/1.148 OPS.

Rowdy Tellez is currently on pace for 34 HR and 102 RBI. His career highs entering 2022 were 21 HR and 54 RBI with Toronto in 2019. Tellez leads the Brewers in HR (24), RBI (72), total bases (182) and extra-base hits (44).

It’s lefty Eric Lauer on the mound here. Lauer (8-4) took the loss last Friday versus the Cardinals, allowing three runs on five hits and two walks while striking out five in six innings. Lauer didn’t give up a lot, but he was tagged for home runs by Paul Goldschmidt in the first inning and Nolan Arenado in the sixth to account for all of the runs on his line. It marked the first time Lauer’s logged consecutive quality starts since a four-start streak from April 18 to May 6. He owns a 3.64 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 116:42 K:BB through 118.2 innings across 21 outings this season.

Lauer is 23-28 in his career with a 4.31 ERA against everyone except the Dodgers; when facing L.A., he’s 6-0 with a 2.56 ERA, including 1-0 with a 4.50 ERA in 2 starts last season (10ip, 5er).

Game Trends

  • Dodgers are 38-14 in their last 52 vs. National League Central.
  • Dodgers are 44-17 in their last 61 games vs. a left-handed starter.
  • Brewers are 7-1 in their last 8 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Brewers are 0-4 in their last 4 during game 3 of a series.

Expert Prediction

  • Dodgers 4, Brewers 3
 
 

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