Mets vs Phillies MLB Week 3 Odds, Preview, and Pick

Mets vs Phillies MLB Week 3 Odds, Preview, and Pick

Written by on April 16, 2019

NL East rivals the New York Mets and the Philadelphia Phillies throw down at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia on Tuesday, April 16. Both have their sights on a division title this season. Will the Phillies protect their home turf? Check out baseball betting odds, analysis, and a free pick!

Mets vs Phillies MLB Week 3 Odds, Preview, and Pick

  • When: Tuesday, April 16 at 7:05pm ET
  • Where: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
  • TV: MLBN
  • Moneyline Odds: Phillies -125
  • Over/Under Total Odds: 9

Why New York Mets are a good bet at +105

The Mets list Steven Matz as their April 16 starter. Matz has had all his pitches working so far this season. In his first start, he gave up 1 earned run and 3 runs total in 6 hits in 5.1 innings versus the Miami Marlins.

He only allowed 2 hits and 0 runs versus Washington on April 6. Then on April 11, he gave up 2 earned runs off 4 hits in 6 innings against Atlanta. The Mets won all 3 of Matz’s starts. They could make it 4 in a row if Matz is under control again on Tuesday night.

Team Statistics

  • Runs/G: 6.07
  • BA: .268
  • OPS: .796
  • HR: 19
  • SB: 8
  • ERA: 5.44
  • WHIP: 1.50
  • KS: 154
  • Quality Starts: 5
  • Errors: 8

Why Philadelphia Phillies are a good bet at -125

Phillies starter Nick Pivetta has a 9.45 ERA and a 2.18 WHIP, but there are signs he could be turning his form around. If we throw out the 7 earned runs off 7 hits in 3.2 innings performance on April 10 versus Washington, Pivetta hasn’t been as terrible as the ERA implies.

He gave up 3 earned runs in 5 innings against Minnesota on April 5. In his first start on April 30, he allowed 4 earned runs in 4.2 innings, but the Phillies won. They also beat Minnesota. If he made the necessary adjustments, he could pitch well enough for Philadelphia to beat the Mets.

Team Statistics

  • Runs/G: 5.64
  • BA: .249
  • OPS: .793
  • HR: 20
  • SB: 4
  • ERA: 4.71
  • WHIP: 1.36
  • KS: 123
  • Quality Starts: 6
  • Errors: 8

MLB Baseball Betting Trends for New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies

  • Mets are 5-0 in Matz’s last 5 starts
  • Mets are 4-1 in Matz’s last 5 road starts
  • Mets are 4-1 in Matz’s last 5 starts in game 2 of a series
  • Phillies are 1-4 in their last 5 games versus a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15
  • Phillies are 2-6 in Pivetta’s last 8 starts on grass
  • Phillies are 1-6 in Pivetta’s last 7 starts versus the NL East

New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Final MLB Betting Analysis

The Philadelphia Phillies are favored, but it’s hard to see why. Philadelphia starter Nick Pivetta hasn’t thrown that well yet this season while Mets’ starter Steven Matz has. Pivetta could get rocked early here, sending him to the showers and forcing the Phillies to go to their bullpen.

That wouldn’t be a good situation for Philadelphia. Although Pivetta and the Phillies take on the Mets at home, Matz is throwing much too well while New York hit against Philadelphia’s squad on Monday night, racking up 7 runs in a 7-6 win. Mets make it 2 in a row.

MLB Free Pick: Mets +105