Milwaukee vs. Pittsburgh | Brewers Begin Life After Josh Hader

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The Milwaukee Brewers were off Monday but they made a stunning trade in sending All-Star closer Josh Hader to the San Diego Padres. The Brewers begin life without Hader on Tuesday as big favorites on the MLB odds in Pittsburgh.

How to Bet Brewers at Pirates MLB Odds & TV Info

When: Tuesday, 7:05 PM ET
Where: PNC Park
Probable pitchers (away/home): Corbin Burnes/Bryse Wilson
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/gameday audio: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/
Opening MLB Lines: Brewers -220, Pirates +200 (<a
href=”https://www.mybookie.ag/sportsbook/mlb/”>total 7.5)

Why Bet on Milwaukee?

The Brewers are 31-25 on the road, going 8-6-4 in series play.

Just a total stunner on Monday when the Brewers shipped All-Star closer Josh Hader to San Diego for Padres closer Taylor Rogers, righty Dinelson Lamet, left-handed pitching prospect Robert Gasser (San Diego’s No. 7 prospect) and outfielder Esteury Ruiz (No. 28 prospect).

Rogers will be on the move for the second time this season after the Padres acquired him from the Twins on Opening Day with the hope that he would add stability to the ninth inning. Despite losing out on the job in San Diego, Rogers still converted 28 of his 35 save chances on the season and sported decent underlying ratios (2.35 FIP, 3.36 xFIP, 22.4 K-BB%).

Hader, a four-time All-Star with 125 career saves, currently leads the Majors with 29 saves in 2022. The 28-year-old is sitting on a career-worst 4.24 ERA, though that mark was inflated by an uncharacteristic pair of consecutive meltdowns earlier this month, wherein he was tagged for a staggering nine earned runs in one-third of an inning. Outside that pair of disastrous outings, Hader has a 1.87 ERA in 33 2/3 innings. He didn’t allow a run this season until June 7 and has punched out a massive 41.8% of his opponents against an 8.5% walk rate.

All-Star setup man Devin Williams will take over as Milwaukee’s closer. Williams is unscored upon in his last 30 appearances (28.2ip), a franchise record for a single season. Opponents are batting just .115 (11-for-96) during this stretch with 8 walks and 47 strikeouts. The previous franchise record for consecutive scoreless appearances in a single season was 23 held by Doug Jones (1997), John Axford (2013) and Jeremy Jeffress (2018). The single-season MLB record is Craig Kimbrel’s 38 straight scoreless outings in 2011.

“I’m just trying to put up a zero every day,” Williams said after his most recent outing Saturday. “Usually when I pitch, it’s a one- or two-run game, like it was today, and it’s either put up a zero or we’re going to be tied or losing.”

It’s reigning Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes on the mound Tuesday. Burnes (8-4) allowed three runs over six innings and struck out 11 in a win over the Twins last Wednesday. Burnes gave up homers to Jose Miranda and Kyle Garlick, bringing his season total of homers allowed to 15 in 124 2/3 innings. Last year, he surrendered just seven in 167 innings. Still, Burnes has a lower ERA now (2.31) than he finished up last year with (2.43). He is seventh in the majors in ERA and first with 160 strikeouts.

Burnes has a franchise-record 20 career double-digit strikeout games, including eight this season. He is 6-0 with a 2.63 ERA in 18 career games/6 starts vs. Pittsburgh (51.1ip, 15er), including 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA in 2 starts this season (13ip, 3er).

Why Bet on Pittsburgh?

Pirates manager Derek Shelton said after Sunday’s game that starting third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes is considered day-to-day and that the team doesn’t feel his injury is too serious. Hayes was a late scratch from Sunday’s lineup due to discomfort in his left knee, but Shelton noted that he wasn’t dealing with any swelling. Hayes was injured in the 10th inning of the 2-1 loss to the Phillies Saturday night, when Rhys Hoskins hit a sharp grounder to first baseman Michael Chavis, whose throw to third base veered away from Hayes, causing him to fall backwards.

“My foot kind of wedged up against the base and when I went back, my foot was kind of stuck on the base and my weight kind of rolled me over,” Hayes said. “I kind of felt something intially when I did it. That’s why I laid there a little bit. But over the night it was fine, probably just because of my adrenaline. But when I woke up it was pretty sore. It was hurting.”

Kevin Newman might be playing his way out of Pittsburgh via trade before Tuesday’s deadline. Since he came off the IL on July 8, Newman has hit .315 with eight doubles and six RBIs. He has made a seamless transition to second base, allowing Oneil Cruz to take over at shortstop.

“(Newman) is swinging the bat probably better than anybody on our club,” manager Derek Shelton said. “It’s nice to see some confidence there. It’s nice to see he’s sustaining the things he worked on prior to getting hurt.” The Yankees already have looked him over. If the Pirates trade Newman, they could expect to get a decent (not elite) prospect in return.

Since the beginning of last season, Bryan Reynolds has hit 38 home runs as a center fielder, tied for the highest total in Major League Baseball with Minnesota’s Byron Buxton, ahead of Baltimore’s Cedric Mullins (37) and Los Angeles’ Mike Trout (32). In that same period, he ranks third in hits (220) and doubles (42), fifth in OPS (.885) and slugging percentage (.516) and sixth in average (.285). Reynolds has played 170 consecutive errorless games in center field, the second-longest streak by a Pirate at that position since 1901, trailing only the 189-game run by Andrew McCutchen from April 30, 2012-June 1, 2013.

It’s Bryse Wilson on the mound Tuesday. Wilson gave up three earned runs over six innings in the Pirates’ loss to the Cubs last Tuesday. Wilson only issued one walk, but he also tallied just two strikeouts among the 25 batters he faced. The 24-year-old right-hander is now 1-6 on the season with a 6.31 ERA.

Wilson has gone 1-2 with a 3.27 ERA (8 ER in 22.0 IP) and 13 strikeouts against just 2 walks in four starts since last being recalled from Triple-A Indianapolis on July 2. He has allowed three earned runs or fewer in seven of his 10 starts this season, including two or fewer four times. Opponents are hitting just .194 (6-for-31) against his curveball this season (has thrown it 159, his third most frequently used pitched behind the sinker (332) and four-seam fastball (318)).

Wilson will be making his sixth career appearance (fifth start) against the Brewers. He is 1-2 with a 4.30 ERA (11 ER in 23.0 IP) and has made two appearances (one start) against Milwaukee this season, going 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA (2 ER in 10.0 IP).

Game Trends

Brewers are 20-7 in their last 27 during game 1 of a series.
Brewers are 8-3 in their last 11 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Brewers are 12-5 in their last 17 games following a loss.
Pirates are 5-17 in their last 22 games following an off day.
Brewers are 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Pittsburgh.