Mets vs. Pirates MLB Betting Lines Analysis & Picks

Mets vs Pirates MLB Betting Lines Analysis & Picks

Written by on April 15, 2024

The Pittsburgh Pirates are one of the early surprises in baseball with double-digit wins already and contending in the NL Central, but they are short underdogs on the MLB odds Monday when they open a series at the New York Mets

2024 MLB Expert Analysis Pittsburgh vs New York Mets | MyBookie Sportsbook MLB Week 3


How to Bet Pirates at Mets MLB Odds & TV Info

When: Monday, 7:10 PM ET
Where: Citi Field
Probable pitchers (away/home): Martin Perez/Adrian Houser
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/gameday audio:
Opening MLB Lines: Mets -127, Pirates +104 (total 4.5)


Why Bet on Pittsburgh Pirates?

Pittsburgh will continue its seven-game road trip with the beginning of a three-game series against the Mets. The Pirates went 3-3 against the Mets in 2023 after taking two of three games at PNC Park from June 9-11 while dropping two of three games at Citi Field from August 14-16.

Pittsburgh Last 5
@ Phillies – W 9-2
@ Phillies – L 4-3
@ Phillies – W 5-2
@ Phillies – L 5-1
vs Tigers – L 5-3

Outfielder Andrew McCutchen is one home run shy of 300 in his career. The 37-year-old ranks fourth all-time in Pirates history with 215 home runs (Willie Stargell ranks first with 475). McCutchen’s next home run would also make him one of just 13 players all-time with at least 2000 hits, 400 doubles, 45 triples, 300 home runs and 200 career stolen bases. The Yankees’ Giancarlo Stanton leads all active players with 406 home runs.

Fellow outfielder Edward Olivares was out of the starting lineup Sunday but should be in there Monday. He’s off to a very good start at .308 with three homers and seven RBI. Catcher Henry Davis also didn’t start Sunday also for rest. Over his past four games, Davis was 4-for-13 with one double, three walks, two runs and two RBI.

Over the weekend, the Pirates activated reliever Colin Holderman off the injured list and sent down Ryder Ryan. Holderman started the season on the 15-day injured list after losing nearly 20 pounds due to a spring training illness. After four outings on his rehab assignment — the final three of which were scoreless — the Pirates felt he was ready.

It’s veteran lefty Martin Perez (1-0) on the mound Monday. Perez didn’t factor in the decision last Tuesday after he gave up one run on six hits and no walks over eight innings during a 5-3 loss to the Tigers. He struck out seven. Perez pitched well in his first two starts of the campaign with three runs allowed across 11 innings, but he was outright dominant vs. the Tigers as he threw 70 of his 100 pitches for strikes and generated a combined 36 called and swinging strikes. Perez was in line for his second victory before closer David Bednar fell apart in the ninth inning. Perez is off to one of the best starts of his big-league career with a 1.89 ERA through three turns.

Perez is 4-0 with a 2.88 ERA (34.1ip/11er) in eight career appearances (four starts) against the Mets. He went 1-0 while tossing a combined 5.0 scoreless innings in two relief appearances in 2023 against them. Perez has a 2.39 ERA in his four vs. New York. His last outing against the Mets came at Citi Field on 7/2/22 as a member of the Rangers, where he won a 7-3 decision against Trevor Williams.

The Pirates rank sixth in all of MLB in walks per 9.0 innings (2.41) by their pitchers. The only five starting rotations averaging fewer walks per 9.0 innings are the Mariners (1.84), Orioles (1.95), Reds (2.19), Royals (2.22) and Giants (2.26). Pittsburgh’s starting rotation also has the eighth-lowest batting average against (.237) in all of MLB.

Pittsburgh Betting Odds to Win
MLB Money Line

Week 3 MLB Vegas Lines Odds Subject to Change SPREAD MONEYLINE TOTAL
Pirates +0.5 +104 O 4.5
Mets -0.5 -127 U 4.5
MLB First 5 Inning Lines | AL Divisional Odds | NL Divisional Odds

Why Bet on New York Mets?

The Mets faced a tough lefty in Sunday’s series finale vs. Kansas City and gave good young third baseman Brett Baty the day off from the starting lineup. It was his first game off since March 30 after he saw his seven-game hit streak come to an end with an 0-for-4 showing in Saturday’s 11-7 loss to the Royals. Overall, Baty has reached base safely in all but one game this season.

New York Last 5
vs Royals – W 2-1
vs Royals – L 11-7
vs Royals – W 6-1
@ Braves – W 16-4
@ Braves – L 6-5

This is the Brett Baty the Mets were hoping for when they drafted him in the first round of the 2019 MLB Draft to potentially be the team’s third baseman of the future. It was slow going for Baty in his first full season in the majors in 2023. Baty hit just .212 with nine home runs and a .598 OPS in 108 games last year, while going through some struggles defensively at the hot corner.

“Confidence. We’re seeing a player playing with a lot of confidence,” manager Carlos Mendoza said of Baty’s strong early play. “You see it in the box, you see it at the plate, you see it on defense. … There’s a lot to like right now from Brett.”

As a team, the Mets have struck out the fewest times of any team in the majors and has an 18.4 strikeout percentage, which ranks fourth in the majors and second in the National League. Jeff McNeil ranks third in the majors, striking out only 8.0% of the time, while Francisco Lindor places 11th at 10.3%.

It’s right-hander Adrian Houser (0-1, 5.40 ERA (on the mound Monday. Houser is the 18th player in franchise history born in the state of Oklahoma and first player born in Oklahoma to appear In a game for the Mets since Matt Reynolds in 2016. He is the first Oklahoma native to pitch for the Mets since 2012 when Mets pitching coach Jeremy Hefner made his major league debut. Houser has known Hefner for many years and worked with Hefner during the offseason in Oklahoma.

Houser took the loss last Tuesday as the Mets were downed 6-5 by Atlanta, giving up five runs on eight hits and two walks over five innings. He struck out only one. The 31-year-old managed to keep the ball in the yard, but that was about the only positive takeaway from this performance. Houser managed just 54 strikes among his 95 pitches and generated a meager six swinging strikes, and he also hit two batters with pitches.

He is 4-3 with a 3.79 ERA career against Pittsburgh in 59.1 innings all while with Milwaukee. He last faced the Pirates on Aug. 3 last year and got the win, allowing one run on four hits with two walks over six innings.

New York Betting Odds to Win
MLB Money Line


Expert Prediction

Pirates 4, Mets 3


MLB Conferences Winners

American League Odds

New York Yankees +300
Houston Astros +475
Baltimore Orioles +550
Texas Rangers +575
Toronto Blue Jays +1100
Seattle Mariners +1200
Tampa Bay Rays +1200
Minnesota Twins +1300
Cleveland Guardians +1800
Detroit Tigers +2500
Kansas City Royals +3000
Boston Red Sox +3000
Los Angeles Angels +6000
Chicago White Sox +25000
Oakland Athletics +25000
AL Pennant Odds

National League Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers +170
Atlanta Braves +240
Philadelphia Phillies +750
Chicago Cubs +1600
Arizona Diamondbacks +1700
St. Louis Cardinals +1900
Cincinnati Reds +2500
San Diego Padres +2500
San Francisco Giants +3000
Milwaukee Brewers +3000
New York Mets +3500
Pittsburgh Pirates +4000
Miami Marlins +12500
Washington Nationals +15000
Colorado Rockies +30000
NL Pennant Odds

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