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It’s one of the baseball mismatches of the season on Thursday night as the terrible Kansas City Royals visit the MLB-best Tampa Bay Rays and AL Cy Young favorite Shane McClanahan. The Rays are monster favorites on the MLB odds.

Royals vs. Rays | 2023 MLB Expert Analysis

How to Bet Kansas City at Tampa Bay MLB Odds & TV Info

When: Thursday, 6:40 PM ET
Where: Tropicana Field
Probable pitchers (away/home): Bullpen game/Shane McClanahan
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/gameday audio: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/
Opening MLB Lines: Rays -290, Royals +270 (total 8)

Why Bet on Kansas City?

This trip will mark a homecoming of sorts for Royals first-year Manager Matt Quatraro, who spent the majority of his playing and coaching career in the Rays organization, including the last five seasons from 2018-22 on Kevin Cash’s staff. The Royals will be seeking their first series win at Tropicana Field since 2017, as they’re 3-11 in four sets since.

Royals catcher/outfielder/DH MJ Melendez was not in the starting lineup Wednesday against Detroit but it was simply rest and he should be back in there Thursday. Melendez went 0-for-7 with a run scored, a walk and six strikeouts while starting the first two games of the series. Melendez’s 29 walks this season lead all Royals, and his 95 walks since 2022 rank 2nd among players age 24 or younger, behind only Juan Soto. Melendez’s average exit velocity is 93.4 mph this season, which ranks T-7th in the American League, while his 52.1% hard-hit rate ranks 10th.

Outfielder Drew Waters and shortstop Nicky Lopez also didn’t start Wednesday in Detroit but it was simply matchup-related. Since 2021, Lopez leads the majors at all positions with 46 Outs Above Average — a metric of fielding skill. Waters has recorded a hit in 9 of his 18 games with an at-bat this season.

Catcher/DH Salvador Perez leads MLB qualified catchers (min. 70% of games at the position) with 14 home runs, and he leads American League catchers in extra-base hits (28) and slugging percentage (.484). Salvy also ranks 2nd among American League catchers in hits (69), RBI (37) and OPS (.786).

Kansas City hasn’t named a starting pitcher and will likely use a bullpen-type day on Thursday. The key is to use closer Scott Barlow at some point. He has not allowed a run in the 12 games he’s appeared in that the Royals eventually won, as all 14 runs (12 earned) have come in Royals losses.

The Royals’ 27 blown lead losses are nearly three-fourths of the way to matching their 36 from last season. They are 5-20 when scoring in the 1st inning with 10 consecutive losses and have not won when scoring in the first inning since May 10 vs. the White Sox. On the flip side, Kansas City’s seven comeback wins are the fewest in the majors.

Kansas City has held a lead in 32 of its past 45 games since the start of May, but is 13-32 during that stretch with 19 blown lead losses, including 9 blown lead losses in 18 games this month, in which they’re 3-15.

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Why Bet on Tampa Bay?

The Rays sat two key players Wednesday against the Orioles in outfielders Luke Raley and Josh Lowe but still won to snap a season-high three-game losing streak. Tampa Bay’s 32-8 record at Tropicana Field represents MLB’s best start at home since the 2008 Chicago Cubs. The Rays are one of 11 teams since 1901 to win at least 31 of their first 40 home games (excluding ties) in a season, including one of four in the Integration Era (since 1947). Tampa Bay has won 18 of 24 at home and has lost back-to-back home games just once all season (4/25-26 vs. HOU). The Rays are 11-1-1 in series play at home.

Tampa Bay hitters rank among MLB leaders at home in several categories, including stolen bases (1st, 48), SLG (2nd, .481), homers (T2nd, 62), OPS (3rd, .824), runs per game (3rd, 5.85) and extra-base hits (3rd, 144). Randy Arozarena has a 30-game on-base streak at Tropicana Field. It’s the fifth-longest overall home on-base streak in Rays history and third-longest at home. Ben Zobrist reached base in 37 straight at home to set the record.

The Rays lead MLB with 96 stolen bases and it marks the most stolen bases through 76 games by any club since the 2009 Rays (116 SB). Tampa Bay leads the AL and ranks third in the majors with a 48.0 pct. extra-base taken percentage, which is defined as the percent of times a runner advances more than one base on a single or more than two bases on a double, when possible.

It’s ace lefty an AL Cy Young favorite Shane McClanahan (11-1) on the bump Thursday. McClanahan allowed one run on three hits and three walks over 6.2 innings last Friday, striking out five and earning a win over the Padres. McClanahan rolled through six shutout frames before serving up a solo homer to Nelson Cruz in the seventh inning. With a third straight win, McClanahan has racked up a league-high 11 wins in just 15 starts. However, during that win streak, he’s registered a lackluster 15:6 K:BB through 19.2 innings. For the season, the 26-year-old owns a terrific 2.12 ERA and 97:33 K:BB through 89.1 innings.

McClanahan has made two career starts against Kansas City, going 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA (12.0IP, 2ER) and 14 strikeouts against three walks. In his last start vs. KC on 8/19/22, he did not factor into the decision after throwing 7.0 innings of two-run ball with eight strikeouts.

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Game Trends

• Rays are 47-15 in their last 61 home games.
• Rays are 10-4 in their last 13 games vs. a right-handed starter.
• Over is 13-3 in Rays last 16 home games.
• Royals are 17-48 in their last 65 overall.
• Royals are 5-19 in their last 24 games vs. a left-handed starter.

Expert Prediction

Rays 6, Royals 2

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