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The awful Miami Marlins actually have been much better on the road early this season as they open a four-game weekend series at Wrigley Field on Thursday night with the Cubs as heavy favorites on the MLB odds. Any Marlins-Cubs game at Wrigley reminds of Steve Bartman

2024 MLB Expert Analysis Miami vs Chicago | MyBookie Sportsbook MLB Week 3

How to Bet Marlins at Cubs MLB Odds & TV Info

When: Thursday, 7:40 PM ET
Where: Wrigley Field
Probable pitchers (away/home): AJ Puk/Jameson Taillon
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/gameday audio: ESPN+; https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/
Opening MLB Lines: Cubs -163, Marlins +117 (total 4.5)

Why Bet on Miami Marlins?

The 2023 Marlins came from behind to win 41 times, tying the 5th-most such wins in a season in Marlins history (also, 2000 and 2009). This year’s team has just one such victory thus far, which was Tuesday against the Giants.

The last thing offensively challenged Miami needed was an injury to one of its top hitters, but third baseman Jake Burger landed on the IL earlier this week with an oblique injury and those can linger for weeks. Burger leads the Marlins in RBI with 15 and is tied for the team lead in homers with three. His overall .228/.281/.421 batting line is still well shy of league-average production (86 wRC+), but he’s been one of the better hitters in a dismal Marlins lineup — particularly with runners on base. Burger was acquired from the Chicago White Sox at last year’s trade deadline and helped the Marlins reach the playoffs in a full season for the first time since 2003.

Emmanuel Rivera had been getting regular reps at third base since Burger landed on the IL but Rivera got Wednesday’s finale vs. San Francisco off and Otto Lopez was at third. He was called up earlier this week to take Burger’s roster spot. Lopez was claimed off waivers from the Giants earlier this year and slashed .485/.528/.788 in a tiny sample of 36 Triple-A plate appearances.

In addition, catcher Christian Bethancourt landed on the IL Monday with a viral illness. Nick Fortes will handle most of the catching while he was out, although the team called up Jhonny Pereda from Triple-A and he started Wednesday in his MLB debut after spending the last 11 seasons in the minors.

Also Wednesday, the team demoted reliever George Soriano to Triple-A and recalled righty Declan Cronin. He made two appearances in the Marlins’ first series of the season where he didn’t allow a run in his four innings pitched before being sent down.

This would have been good-looking right-hander Max Meyer’s spot to start, but he was demoted early this week to make room for Edward Cabrera, who pitched brilliantly against the San Francisco Giants on Monday night in his return from the injured list. Heading into the season, Meyer wasn’t expected to break camp with a rotation spot. Spring injuries to Cabrera, Braxton Garrett and Eury Perez changed that calculus.

In 17 innings this year in the majors, Meyer touts a 2.12 ERA; he’s surrendered just four runs on 11 hits and three walks with 14 punchouts and a 48.9% ground-ball rate. Last Saturday, he held the powerful Atlanta Braves to one run in six innings, striking out seven and walking none.

“He threw a lot of breaking balls, a lot of sliders — and it’s a power one,” Braves manager Brian Snitker said. “Changeup’s really good. I like his arm. That was an impressive outing.”

It’s unlikely the decision to option Meyer was overly motivated by service time. He entered the year at 1.082 years of service, meaning he needed just 90 days on the active roster or big league injured list in order to reach two years of service and remain on track for free agency following the 2028 season. Meyer has picked up 17 days of service already, so unless the Marlins are planning to keep him in the minors for as many as 95 more days this season, his free agent timeline will be unchanged.

Instead, it will be lefty AJ Puk (0-3, 5.91) on the hill – maybe his last chance to keep a rotation spot. Puk’s start had to be pushed back a couple times because he was under the weather, but he’s feeling better and played catch on Wednesday. Puk last took the hill on April 9 and Puk allowed two runs (one earned) on four hits in 4 2/3 innings in a loss to the Yankees.

Puk threw 56 of his 98 pitches for strikes and walked five evening while striking out just one. He had just a 15 percent whiff rate and 22 percent CSW and was also throwing just 93.4 mph on his four-seamer after averaging 94.5 entering. Puk has lasted just a combined 10 2/3 innings over three starts while walking 14 hitters and striking out seven.

The Marlins were 4-2 against the Cubs in 2023 and are 109-115 all-time against Chicago, including a 52-63 clip at Wrigley.

Miami Betting Odds to Win
MLB Money Line

Why Bet on Chicago Cubs?

Of Chicago‘s first 32 games, none are against N.L. Central division opponents, with its first division matchup coming on May 3 when Milwaukee visits Wrigley Field. That streak of games without playing a division opponent is the most to start a season in franchise history since division play started in 1969.

The Cubbies were on the wrong side of a rarity on Tuesday as they scored 11 runs in Arizona … and still lost. Chicago had won 19 straight games when scoring at least 11. Chicago has compiled a .329 on-base percentage and a .418 slugging mark and the club’s .748 OPS ranks fifth in the N.L. and seventh in the majors.

The Cubs are without one of their best offensive players as outfielder Seiya Suzuki is expected to miss four weeks with a moderate strain of his right oblique. The 29-year-old was slashing .305/.368/.525 (139 OPS+) with three home runs in 15 games. He has been on fired since a brief mental health break last August. Suzuki hit .356/.414/.672 with 11 home runs in his final 47 games after returning to the lineup last year.

Suzuki missed about six weeks and had to withdraw from the World Baseball Classic last year because of a left oblique strain. Alexander Canario was recalled from Triple-A Iowa to replace Suzuki on the outfield depth chart. The righty-hitting Canario could platoon with the lefty-hitting Mike Tauchman during Suzuki’s absence.

Jameson Taillon will make his season debut vs. the Cubs. The right-hander pitched to solid results in his first three starts with the Cubs last year but struggled badly following a groin injury he sustained in mid-April, posting a 7.61 ERA and 6.07 FIP in his next 11 starts. From there, however, the right-hander appeared to turn a corner and performed more like the mid-rotation arm he was signed to be, with a 3.38 ERA and 4.24 FIP over his final 90 2/3 innings of work.

From July 7-Aug. 8, Taillon went 5-0 with a 2.17 ERA (9 ER/37.1 IP) in six starts with 30 strikeouts, three quality starts and a 1.02 WHIP. His ERA in that span was tied for fifth-lowest in the majors and his five wins ranked first. In his final 2023 outing on Sept. 30, Taillon made his first-career relief appearance tossing 4.0 scoreless innings, allowing three hits and earning his first-career save.

Taillon didn’t pitch at all this spring because of tightness in his lower back. He was placed on the injured list in late March but has made a few rehab starts in the minors. Taillon pitched well in his rehab start for Triple-A Iowa last Friday with 3 2/3 scoreless innings while throwing 68 pitches. He added a new slider to his arsenal over the offseason. It’s more of a sweeping slider than his old gyro slider, and Taillon said that the early metrics on it have been exciting. “I’m excited to break it out in games and see how it fares,” he said.

As for whose job Taillon takes, it’s possible it won’t be anyone this first time through. Manager Craig Counsell could decide to give all the starters an extra day if the bullpen is fresh enough to accommodate it. If not, Ben Brown would likely be the odd man out with Javier Assad remaining in the rotation until injured ace Justin Steele returns.

Taillon may not pitch too deep on Thursday so we may see Cubs reliever Mark Leiter Jr. for an inning or two right after him. Mark Leiter Jr. has tossed 10.0 scoreless innings with 11 strikeouts, while stranding six of his seven inherited runners across nine outings in 2024. He is the lone pitcher in the N.L. and one of three in the major leagues to have not allowed an earned run this season. Since July 17, 2023, Leiter has posted a 2.45 ERA in 41 appearances.

Chicago Betting Odds to Win
MLB Money Line

Expert Prediction

Cubs 5, Marlins 3

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