Kentucky Derby preps start in earnest this weekend when three-year-olds throw down in the Grade 3 Southwest at Oaklawn Park and the Grade 2 San Vicente at Santa Anita. As one might expect, Derby King Bob Baffert has a strong hand in both races. But just because Bob should win both preps, it doesn’t mean he’ll be in charge come Derby Day. Check out five bold predictions for the 2023 Kentucky Derby so you can plan ahead your bets and place them on the Kentucky Derby Odds. 

Horse Racing Odds: Bold Betting Predictions for the 2023 Kentucky Derby

143rd Kentucky Derby

• When: Saturday, May 6 at 9:00 pm ET
• Where: Churchill Downs, Louisville, KY

At least four horses formerly trained by Bob Baffert will run the Derby

Baffert trained Arabian Knight is the most hyped three-year-old to land on the Derby Trail since, Triple Crown winner American Pharoah eight years ago. 

Ah, but Baffert is suspended from running horses at Churchill Downs. The racetrack said that all horses running under suspended trainers must transfer to different barns by Feb. 28.

So, although Baffert will prep Arabian Knight, and Cave Rock, and Faustin to run for the roses, there’s a good chance those horses will be formerly trained by Bob Baffert contenders. 

Todd Pletcher trained Forte will go off the morning line chalk

Forte has won 3 straight Grade 1 events: the Hopeful at Saratoga last September, the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland last October, and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, also at Keeneland, this past November. 

Also, not only does Pletcher train, but Violence, a son of Medaglia D’Oro, sired and the broodmare is Queen Caroline, who calls Blame her dad.

Forte is bred to be a champion. Almost as important? Forte is likely to prep at Gulfstream Park. Brad Cox will keep his horses in Kentucky and Arkansas, and Baffert will prep on the west coast at Santa Anita and at Oaklawn Park in Arkansas, which means Forte should have the Florida preps all to himself. All of it adds up to Forte showing up to Louisville the morning line chalk.  

Trainer Brad Cox will saddle at least three runners

Undefeated Victory Formation, the Smarty Jones winner, should have no trouble entering the Derby starting gate. The horse is 3-0 in 3 races and rates a serious Derby contender.

Instant Coffee, which won the Grade 3 Lecomte in the last, is a close to for sure Cox Derby runner and so is Gun Runner Stakes winner Jace’s Road.

Those three should enter the Derby starting gate. Brad has a plethora of three-year-olds this season. So, if a fourth joins the party, don’t be surprised. 

At least one filly will run for the roses

At least one top filly will forego the Oaks and run in this year’s Derby. Tom Amoss, who is a risk taking trainer, saddles the top rated three-year-old filly in the nation, Hoosier Philly. 

The Into Mischief sired runner comes from Tapit broodmare Tapella. No doubt, the undefeated miss has the talent to win the Derby.

If Amoss opts for the Oaks, Mark Casse will run BC Juvenile Fillies winner Wonder Wheel, or Todd Pletcher might go for the roses with last-out maiden Prank. 

The favorite when the gates open will win the Kentucky Derby

For years, the favorite struggled to win the roses. Then in 2014, when chalk California Chrome won the Derby, the favorite couldn’t lose.

Chalk wore the roses in 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2018. Since 2019, massive underdogs have won the Derby, including Rich Strike last year. 

It’s time for the favorite to get back into the winner’s circle. Forte, Arabian Knight, Instant Coffee, it doesn’t necessarily matter. The bold prediction is the equine which breaks from the gate the chalk wins the Run for the Roses.   

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