Milwaukee vs St. Louis MLB Odds Favorites to Win

Milwaukee vs St. Louis | MLB Odds Favorites to Win

Written by on August 12, 2022

The NL Central Division race figures to go down to the season’s final days, but first place for now is on the line starting Friday night when the Milwaukee Brewers visit the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cards are short favorites on the MLB odds.

How to Bet Brewers at Cardinals MLB Odds & TV Info

Why Bet on Milwaukee?

The Brewers were off Thursday after sweeping at two-game home set from the Rays early this week, capped by a 4-3 comeback win in 10 innings on Wednesday. Rowdy Tellez hit a game-tying home run in the ninth inning of that one. Tellez didn’t start the game but entered as a pinch-hitter in the sixth inning. He flew out that time, but Tellez led off the bottom of the ninth with a shot just over the center-field wall off of Colin Poche to knot things up. The Brewers would win in the bottom of the 10th on Willy Adames’ walk-off RBI single.

Hunter Renfroe went 1-for-2 with two walks during Wednesday’s win. After racking up six home runs in nine games during late July, Renfroe has gone ice cold at the plate, slashing .154/.333/.192 since the start of August.

New closer Devin Williams (3-2) struck out one in a perfect 10th inning Wednesday to pick up the win. He needed only seven pitches (four strikes) to breeze through the top of the 10th inning thanks in part to Victor Caratini throwing out Taylor Walls attempting to steal second. Williams has yet to give up an earned run in four appearances since Josh Hader was dealt to the Padres, and on the season the right-hander sports a 1.66 ERA and 70:19 K:BB through 43.1 innings with seven saves in seven chances and 25 holds.

It’s lefty Eric Lauer on the mound here. Lauer (8-3) allowed a run on six hits and three walks while striking out four over seven innings, earning the win last Friday over the Reds. Lauer threw 68 of 100 pitches for strikes and limited the damage to a Kyle Farmer RBI single in the fifth inning. Lauer has allowed exactly one run in four of his last six starts, though he has only two wins to go with four no-decisions. Lauer continues to show improvement after a rough June, and his ERA is down to 3.59 with a 1.22 WHIP and 111:40 K:BB through 112.2 innings across 20 starts this year.

The team is 13-7 in Lauer’s starts this year and opponents are batting .230 (97-for-421, 20hr). He is 2-2 with a 6.93 ERA in 6 career games/5 starts vs. St. Louis (24.2ip, 19er), including 1-1 with a 5.73 ERA in 2 starts this season (11ip, 7er).

Why Bet on St. Louis?

The Cardinals had to finish a series in Colorado on Thursday. Slumping Dylan Carlson was given the day off. Carlson started the past 22 games and went 0-for-9 with a walk and two strikeouts across the first two games of the series against the Rockies

In 15 games since the All-Star break, Carlson is batting .175 with a .246 on-base percentage. Since the All-Star break, when batting leadoff, Carlson has a sickly .120 batting average and .440 OPS and has reached base in only 20 percent of his 55 plate appearances. In 107 plate appearances as the No. 1 hitter this season, Carlson is batting .156 with a .224 on-base percentage and .464 OPS. Among 43 MLB hitters that have 100+ plate appearances when batting at the top of the lineup in 2022, Carlson has the worst batting average and OPS and is next to last in on-base percentage.

Second baseman Tommy Edman also sat Thursday. Edman was scratched from Saturday’s lineup for unspecified reasons but started the past three games and went 4-for-13 with an RBI, two runs and a stolen base. Catcher Yadier Molina needs four hits to reach 2,150 for his career and tie Hall of famer Yogi Berra for 5th-most hits all-time by a primary catcher in MLB history.

St. Louis has scored 73 runs in the first inning this season, 3rd-most in MLB to the Yankees (79) and Dodgers (76). Major Leaguers with 75+ PA in the first inning, Nolan Arenado (1.186) ranks 2nd and Paul Goldschmidt ranks 5th (1.115) in first inning OPS.

Montgomery (4-3) scattered two hits, walked a batter, and whiffed one over five scoreless innings in last Saturday’s win over the Yankees, his former team. He only struck out one but he also lowered his ERA from 3.69 to 3.53. Montgomery was pulled after experiencing cramping his legs. The Cardinals described Montgomery’s removal from the contest as precautionary, and the 29-year-old apparently checked out fine following his between-starts bullpen session so he’s good to go Friday.

Montgomery is making just his 2nd career start & appearance against the Brewers and his first since July 7, 2017 at Yankee Stadium when he took ND in 9-4 loss. He as career mark of 3-1, 2.05 ERA in five career starts vs. NL Central teams. Four of his five career starts vs. NL Central teams have been quality starts. His lone meeting with an NL Central club this season came on 6/11 vs. the Cubs when he logged 7.0 scoreless innings in an 8-0 win at Yankee Stadium.

Game Trends

  • Brewers are 6-1 in their last 7 games following an off day.
  • Brewers are 22-8 in their last 30 during game 1 of a series.
  • Cardinals are 8-0 in their last 8 home games.
  • Cardinals are 5-2 in their last 7 during game 1 of a series.

Expert Prediction

  • Cardinals 4, Brewers 3

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