NY Yankees vs Minnesota Odds, Picks & Predictions MLB

NY Yankees vs Minnesota | Odds, Picks & Predictions MLB

The best starting pitcher on the New York Yankees this season hasn’t been high-priced Gerrit Cole but instead lefty Nestor Cortes, and he’s due on the bump Wednesday when the Yankees visit the Minnesota Twins in a matchup of division leaders. New York is favored on the MLB odds.

How to Bet Yankees at Twins MLB Odds & TV Info

Why Bet on New York?

The Yankees are just the fifth Major League team in the last 38 years (since 1985) to win at least 39 of their first 54 games of a season. The Yankees are 34-4 when they score at least 3 runs this season. They are 25-1 this season when scoring at least 5 and 29-3 when they score at least 4.

Starting pitcher Domingo Germán could begin a minor league rehab assignment later this week. Germán recently progressed to facing hitters and has thrown several innings in simulated games. He’s expected to progress to a minor league rehab assignment at some point in the next week or so. The 29-year-old righty has been out since spring training due to right shoulder inflammation.

There’s some optimism within the Yankees’ organization that former All-Star reliever Zach Britton, who is coming off left elbow surgery last September, will be ready to return at some point in August or September. Closer Aroldis Chapman remains out with an Achilles injury and Clay Holmes has been great in his place, to the point there might be a controversy when Chapman returns.

Holmes has an unconventional approach as he relies on a hard, sinking fastball (96.7 MPH) and mixes in an effective slider (85 MPH) to force opposing hitters into one ground ball after another, a ridiculous 82.8% of the time. For perspective, the No. 2 reliever in ground ball rate is Oakland lefty Adam Kolarek at 69.5%. Holmes has allowed six fly balls the entire season.

It’s ace lefty Nestor Cortes (5-1) on the mound. Cortes hurled seven innings of scoreless ball last Thursday to pick up a win over the Angels in the first game of a doubleheader.  Cortes scattered five hits, and he struck out seven with two walks in another impressive effort. He lowered his ERA to 1.50, and that’s the lowest ERA over 10 starts for a member of the Yankees since Phil Niekro posted a 1.20 mark all the way back in 1984.

It was the sixth start this year in which he yielded one earned run or fewer. That’s a stunning run for the former 36th-round pick who has come out of anonymity to be one of the premier pitchers in the game this year.

“I can’t sit here and tell you I don’t look at the numbers. I obviously look at the numbers. I look at everything everybody posts and everybody says,” Cortes said. “It’s been pretty special. … I try to compete. With that, I’ve had a lot of success.”

From 2018-2020, Cortes surrendered 62 runs in 79 innings. Since 2021, he has only allowed 43 runs in 153 innings, including just 11 in 60 this season. His pitch arsenal wasn’t quite the same as it is now. Notably absent was his devastating cutter, which he throws 40% of the time in 2022.

Why Bet on Minnesota?

Last season the Twins went 1-6 against the Yankees, going 1-4 at Target Field and 0-4 at Yankee Stadium. In head-to-head regular season games since 2015 (entering this series), the Twins have gone 10-29 vs. the Yankees and since 2017, they have gone 7-19. Jorge Polanco is hitting .302 with two doubles, six home runs, 13 RBI and a 1.094 OPS in his last 10 games against the Yankees.

Former Yankees All-Star Gary Sánchez joined Minnesota in a blockbuster trade this past off-season that brought Josh Donaldson and Isiah Kiner-Falefa to the Yankees so you know Sanchez wants to have a big series. Sánchez was listed as one of the worst catchers in the MLB last season by Baseball Savant when it came to framing pitches. This season, though, he’s above half of the league’s catchers. He’s also hitting better this year compared to the paltry .178 average he posted during his last two with New York.

Star shortstop Carlos Correa participated in pregame drills on Tuesday. Which means that he has passed through COVID-19 protocols and could be activated at any point. Wednesday is a good bet. Correa went on the COVID injured list at the end of May, leaving behind a .279/.344/.407 slash line with three home runs and 16 RBI through 35 games played for Minnesota.

The team on Tuesday placed OF Kyle Garlick on the 10-day injured list with a left hamstring strain. Garlick suffered the injury on Friday and wasn’t making enough progress with his side work. He’s registered an impressive .890 OPS with six home runs through 28 games (68 plate appearances) this year for Minnesota.

Chris Archer (0-2) takes the mound Wednesday. Archer tossed five innings of one-run ball but took a no-decision last Thursday against the Tigers. Archer went exactly two times through the Tigers’ order before getting lifted with a pitch count of 57. He scattered three hits and a walk while striking out three, and he was in line for his first win of the season before Emilio Pagan served up a go-ahead two-run homer to Daz Cameron in the bottom of the eighth. Archer brings a 3.89 ERA into this game.

Despite him spending last year with the Rays, the Yankees really haven’t seen him much in a couple years. The only time he faced the Yankees last year, Archer got hurt after just 2.1 innings. Other than that quick outing, he hasn’t faced the Yankees since April 2018.

Game Trends

  • Yankees are 9-1 in their last 10 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Yankees are 13-3 in their last 16 vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Yankees are 44-14 in their last 58 vs. American League Central.
  • Yankees are 10-4 in their last 14 games as a road favorite.
  • Twins are 4-1 in their last 5 during game 2 of a series.
  • Twins are 9-3 in their last 12 games vs. a left-handed starter.

Expert Prediction

  • Yankees 5, Twins 2

 

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