Phillies vs Padres MLB Odds, Preview & Prediction

Phillies vs Padres MLB Odds, Preview & Prediction

Written by on June 5, 2019

It’s a getaway day game from San Diego on Wednesday afternoon as the suddenly struggling Philadelphia Phillies play their final time this season at Petco Park. They won’t have injured outfielder Andrew McCutchen in the lineup. The San Diego Padres should be slight MLB betting favorites.

Phillies vs Padres MLB Odds, Preview & Prediction

  • When: Wednesday, 3:40 PM ET
  • Where: Petco Park
  • Probable pitchers (away/home): Jake Arrieta/Joey Lucchesi
  • TV: MLB Extra Innings
  • Stream:
  • Radio: Philadelphia / San Diego
  • MLB Odds: TBA

Why Bet on Philadelphia?

The Phillies are going to be without outfielder Andrew McCutchen for a while. In Monday’s loss to the Padres, he was caught in a first-inning rundown and went down with what looked like a potentially serious knee injury. Should the injury be serious, McCutchen, who was slashing .256/.378/.457 (with 10 home runs, 29 RBI and 45 R), will be difficult to replace, both on the field and at the plate as the team’s leadoff hitter. McCutchen left the ballpark on crutches and the team is awaiting MRI results.

The entire situation happened because Phillies shortstop Jean Segura stumbled in the batter’s box and did not run hard to first base after he popped up to Padres second baseman Ian Kinsler. McCutchen entered Monday as the only NL player and one of only three MLB players with more than 40 runs scored and 40 walks (Texas’ Joey Gallo and the Angels’ Mike Trout).

An extended absence would likely mean a lot more Scott Kingery in center field and Jay Bruce in left. The Phils already are without outfielder Odubel Herrera, who is on MLB administrative leave and could be looking at a suspension over a domestic violence allegation. Outfielder Adam Haseley was called up by the Phillies on Tuesday. Haseley, the eighth overall pick in the 2017 draft, has played in just six games since moving up to Triple-A. Overall, he’s hit .275/.358/.466 with seven homers in 178 at-bats in the minors this year.

It’s Jake Arrieta on the mound for the Phillies. Arrieta (5-5) allowed five runs on 10 hits and a walk while striking out three over five innings Friday to take the loss as the Phillies fell 6-3 to the Dodgers.

Arrieta allowed three of the four homers the Dodgers swatted in Friday’s contest. The 33-year-old saw his ERA rise to 3.96, as he has 62 strikeouts in 75 innings this year. He has a 4.80 ERA in his last five starts after going 4-2 with a 3.40 ERA in his first seven starts.

Team Statistics

  • Runs: 4.89
  • Hits: 8.25
  • Walks: 3.80
  • Strike Outs: 8.77
  • Runs: 4.59
  • Hits: 8.95
  • Walks: 3.39
  • Strike Outs: 8.56

Why Bet on San Diego?

Are the Padres a safe bet in Game 3 vs the Phillies?

After winning 10 of 13 games against the Padres in 2015-16, Philadelphia is just 4-9 against San Diego since the start of 2017, and 1-6 at Petco Park (as of Tuesday).

Manny Machado hit his ninth career grand slam Monday in the Padres’ 8-2 defeat of the Phillies. Machado put the game away in the sixth when he took JD Hammer deep. It was his 10th homer of the year, but his first since May 14. He also hadn’t had a multi-RBI game since May 14.

The Padres have hit a Major League-leading 35 go-ahead homers this season. In comparison, the Phillies rank 24th with 19 go-ahead homers. The Padres are 1 of 4 clubs to have multiple players with 16+ HRs (Hunter Renfroe has 17 and Franmil Reyes has 16).

The Padres are close to getting back star rookie shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. from the injured list, although perhaps not by Wednesday. Tatis Jr. went 1-for-3 with a double, steal and two walks for Double-A Amarillo on Monday. Tatis Jr. began his rehab assignment on Monday with the Sod Poodles as he works his way back from a strained left hamstring. He’ll likely make another couple more appearances in the minors before rejoining the Padres.

Lefty Joey Lucchesi is expected to start for the Padres. Lucchesi (4-3) struck out five and picked up the win Friday, allowing one run on two hits and a walk over 6.1 innings in a 5-2 victory over the Marlins. He allowed only one baserunner through five innings before Rosell Herrera ended any thoughts of a shutout with a home run in the sixth. Lucchesi has delivered three straight quality starts after failing to record one through his first eight trips to the mound, and he’ll take a 3.96 ERA and 62:15 K:BB over 61.1 innings into Wednesday.

The Padres pitching staff has thrown changeups 14.6% of the time, the 3rd-highest percentage in the National League (MIA’s 20.1% and MIL’s 15.1%).

Team Statistics

  • Runs: 4.03
  • Hits: 7.61
  • Walks: 2.64
  • Strike Outs: 9.77
  • Runs: 4.44
  • Hits: 8.20
  • Walks: 2.46
  • Strike Outs: 8.82

Phillies vs Padres MLB Betting Trends

  • Phillies are 6-1 in Arrieta’s last 7 Wednesday starts.
  • Phillies are 2-5 in Arrieta’s last 7 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
  • The total went UNDER in 7 of the Phillies’ last 10 games played in June.
  • Padres are 9-3 in their last 12 Wednesday games.
  • Padres are 1-5 in their last 6 during game 3 of a series.
  • The total went OVER in 4 of the Padres’ last 5 games.

Expert MLB Prediction for Phillies vs Padres

Padres 5, Phillies 4