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Reds vs Brewers – MLB Odds & Picks

Written by on August 25, 2020

The Milwaukee Brewers and Cincinnati Reds have both hugely underachieved this season and time is running out for them to contend in the NL Central. The teams meet in Game 2 of a series in Beer Town on Tuesday with the Brewers as short MLB betting favorites.

How to Bet Reds at Brewers MLB Odds & TV Info

  • When: Tuesday, 8:10 PM ET
  • Where: Miller Park
  • Probable pitchers (away/home): Luis Castillo/Brandon Woodruff
  • TV: MLB Extra Innings, MLB Network (out of market)
  • Stream/gameday audio:
  • Opening MLB Lines: Brewers -111, Reds +101 (total 8)
Why Bet on Cincinnati?

The Reds went 2-2-2 in last year’s 6 series vs Milwaukee and earned a 2-1 series win at Miller earlier this season. Beginning May 22 of last season, Reds batters have homered in 11 consecutive games at Miller Park (19hr). The team’s longest home run streak here is 12 straight games, accomplished twice (9/8/08 – 8/27/09 & 9/7/02 – 4/27/04).

In his career at Miller Park, Joey Votto is batting .330 with 20 homers and 61 RBIs. His homers and RBIs are his highest totals in any road ballpark. For visiting players with a minimum of 200 plate apps, he entered this series ranked among all Brewers opponents at Miller Park in on-base percentage (1st), slugging (1st), walks (69, 1st), hits (1st), hitting (2nd), HR (2nd), doubles (22, T3rd) and RBI (T3rd). Votto’s 37 homers are is his highest total vs any opponent and his 116 RBI his second-highest vs any opponent (119 vs Cubs).

One reason that Cincinnati is struggling is how bad All-Star third baseman Eugenio Suarez has been. He set a career high with 49 homers last year but enters this week slashing a .149/.282/.310 with four homers and nine RBI.

It’s Luis Castillo (0-3, 4.44) on the mound Tuesday, and he has disappointed after being an All-Star in 2019. Castillo lasted just 3 1/3 innings and gave up four runs — three earned — in a loss to the Royals last Wednesday. Castillo’s velocity has been as good as ever and he’s struck out 36 batters in 26 1/3 innings, but he has a mediocre to date. It’s mostly because he’s giving up more singles than usual. His changeup and fastball have been strong, but just hittable enough to give him trouble and keep him winless.

Over the previous 3 seasons, he led the Reds’ pitching staff in wins (28), starts (78), innings pitched (449.2) and strikeouts (489). In 2019, Castillo averaged 10.57 strikeouts per 9 innings, the highest ratio in Reds history for pitchers with a minimum of 125 innings.

Castillo is 4-5 career vs. the Brewers with a 4.85 ERA.

Why Bet on Milwaukee?

The Brewers are coming off a 4-6 road trip – their longest of the season – to Chicago-NL (3-1), Minnesota (1-2) and Pittsburgh (0-3). The Brewers have used 25 different batting orders this season. The only duplicate starting lineup came on 7/27 and 7/28 at Pittsburgh: Cain, Hiura, Yelich, Braun, Gyorko, García, Smoak, Piña and Arcia.

Milwaukee does have a great bullpen. Through 7 outings, Josh Hader has yet to allow a run or a hit as opponents are 0-for-22 with 4 walks, a HBP, and 12 strikeouts. Devin Williams through 9 outings this season has 20 strikeouts in just 9.2 innings while holding opponents to a .114 batting average (4-for-35, 1hr).

Since joining the Brewers in 2018, Christian Yelich has appeared in 30 games against the Reds, batting .378 (45-for-119) with 13 HR and 32 RBI.

It’s Brandon Woodruff (1-2, 3.23) on the mound.  Woodruff has run into trouble at the end of each of his past two starts against the Cubs and Twins, leaving him frustrated. “I look at it like I want to go out there and dominate every time out,” he said.

Woodruff scattered nine hits while allowing two runs in five innings Thursday against the Twins. Woodruff retired the first six batters he faced but ran into trouble in the third inning when a triple and a single accounted for the first run against him. He gave up six more hits between the fourth and fifth frames but managed to escape without yielding any additional runs thanks to an outfield assist and a double play. The right-hander came back out for the sixth but was pulled after allowing the first two runners to reach base, one of which eventually came around to score.

He allowed a season high in hits (nine) while tallying a season-low three strikeouts and failing to get through six innings for the third straight start.

Woodruff has gone 2-2 with a 4.56 ERA in 6 career games / 4 starts vs. Cincinnati (23.2ip, 12er), including a no-decision on 8/9 at Miller Park (4ip, 3h, 2r, 2er, 2bb, 5k, 1hr, 91 pitches). The Brewers won, 9-3.

Expert PredictionBrewers 4, Reds 3

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