Seattle vs Houston 2022 MLB Expert Analysis

Seattle vs Houston | MLB Expert Betting Analysis

When the Seattle Mariners visited the AL West-rival Houston Astros earlier this season, the Mariners were swept. The M’s return there on Monday to open a three-game set with Houston as a solid favorite on the MLB betting odds.

How to Bet Mariners at Astros MLB Odds & TV Info

Why Bet on Seattle?

The Mariners come off a 6-5 win in 10 innings at Texas on Sunday. Abraham Toro scored on a wild pitch by Brock Burke in the 10th inning. Seattle scored three in the ninth off Matt Bush, who had his third blown save this season, to tie the score 5-5. Ty France began the scoring with a one-out solo home run that landed just inside the right-field foul pole. Diego Castillo pitched a scoreless ninth inning for Seattle, and then in the 10th, Toro, an automatic runner, advanced to third base on a groundout by Dylan Moore and scored on ball four to Adam Frazier from Burke. Paul Sewald pitched a scoreless 10th to earn his fourth save in six opportunities this season.

Seattle is 21-10 when scoring at least 4 runs and 3-20 when scoring 3 or fewer runs this season. The Mariners are 12-10 in home games and 12-20 in away games. Ty France has been the 3rd-most valuable position player in the American League this season with 2.7 WAR. Jesse Winker has recorded a hard-hit ball (95+ mph) on 8 of his last 9 base hits dating back to May 22. Eugenio Suarez has recorded a barrell in 16.3% on his batted ball events this season, the 13th-best rate in the majors.

The team remains without one of its key players in outfielder Mitch Haniger, who is still working on building strength and only doing light activity as he continues his recovery from a Grade 2 ankle sprain. Haniger was given a recovery timeframe of 8-to-12 weeks after being placed on the injured list April 30.

It’s reigning AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray (4-6, 4.93 ERA) on the mound Monday. Ray lost to the Orioles after allowing four runs in five innings last Wednesday. Ray again showed good velocity and he got 16 missed swings. Ray was undone by a poor second inning, as he allowed two of the first three batters he faced to reach base prior to serving up a three-run homer to Rougned Odor. Ray has now allowed a home run in each of his last six starts, resulting in a 5.64 ERA in that span. He’s racked up 74 strikeouts across 65.2 innings this season.

Ray is 2-1 with a 5.40 ERA (18 ER, 30.0 IP) in 6 career starts against the Astros. His last start against Houston came in 2020 with Arizona when he went 5.0 innings allowing 6 runs.

Why Bet on Houston?

The Astros completed a long road trip with a 7-4 win in Kansas City on Sunday. Kyle Tucker went 2-for-3 with a homer and two walks. Tucker’s homer was his ninth of the year, and the four times on base pushed his OBP up to .348.

Yordan Alvarez went 3-for-4 with a homer and a triple. Alvarez has four homers and eight RBI in his last six games, and he’s raised his average from .247 to .285 over his last seven games. He’s tied for second in the majors with his 16 homers, putting him five back of Aaron Judge. Alvarez is 17-for-35 (.486) in his last nine games with six extra-base hits in that span. For the season, he’s batting .295 with a 1.015 OPS while adding 16 homers, 34 RBI, 35 runs scored.

The Astros bullpen has posted the lowest ERA (2.58) and the lowest home run per 9.0 ratio (0.53) in the Majors this season, while posting the third lowest opponent batting average (.212) and fourth-lowest WHIP (1.13). The group has been nails in their 16 games since May 17, posting a 1.72 ERA (9ER/47IP) without allowing a home run. As you can imagine, online betting for the Astros this season has not been the best.

It’s Cristian Javier (3-2) on the mound here. Javier yielded one run on four hits over four innings while taking a no-decision in last Tuesday’s win over the A’s. While Javier did hold the A’s to just one run, he also struggled mightily with his control, issuing a season-high four walks against four strikeouts. The lone run to score came when Cristian Pache managed an RBI infield single in the fourth inning. The 25-year-old right-hander has a 2.41 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 52/15 K/BB ratio (10 appearances, six starts). Javier has held the opposition to just two runs on 10 hits over his last 15 2/3 innings (three starts) while sporting a 21/6 K/BB ratio.

Javier has been stellar against the Mariners. In his career, he’s recorded an 0.40 ERA (1ER/22.1IP) against them. In his last start vs. Seattle, he tossed 5.2 scoreless innings, allowed 2 hits and 2 walks with 4 strikeouts.

Game Trends

  • Mariners are 8-18 in their last 26 games as an underdog.
  • Mariners are 7-16 in their last 23 road games.
  • Mariners are 6-18 in their last 24 games as a road underdog.
  • Mariners are 1-4 in their last 5 Monday games.
  • Astros are 20-7 in their last 27 games vs. a left-handed starter.
  • Astros are 39-15 in their last 54 during game 1 of a series.
  • Astros are 88-34 in their last 122 home games vs. a team with a losing record.

Expert Prediction: Astros 4, Mariners 3


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