St. Louis vs San Diego MLB Betting Favorites, Analysis & Prediction

St. Louis vs San Diego | MLB Betting Favorites, Analysis & Prediction

Written by on September 20, 2022

It’s a possible first-round National League playoff preview on Tuesday night when the NL Central-leading St. Louis Cardinals visit the Wild-Card hopeful San Diego Padres, who definitely need the game more.

How to Bet Cardinals at Padres MLB Odds & TV Info

  • When: Tuesday, 9:40 PM ET
  • Where: Petco Park
  • Probable pitchers (away/home): Adam Wainwright/Mike Clevinger
  • TV: MLB Extra Innings
  • Stream/gameday audio: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/
  • Opening MLB Lines: Padres -125, Cardinals +115 (total 7.5)

Why Bet on St. Louis?

The Cardinals should clinch the NL Central Division later this week but will be the third seed in the NL playoffs and thus not get a first-round bye but host the last Wild-Card team in the Wild-Card series. St. Louis had a three-game winning streak snapped Sunday in a 3-0 home loss to the Reds to end a long homestand. The Cards had just two hits and were shut out shut out for the 14th time this season (3rd time since All-Star break).

Corey Dickerson went 0-for-4 in the loss. Dickerson has been seeing consistent playing time but has struggled as of late. In the past week, Dickerson is hitting just .190/.190/.238 with one RBI in 21 at-bats. NL MVP favorite Paul Goldschmidt, trying for the Triple Crown, got the day off but will play Tuesday.

In the past eight games, the Cardinals have averaged 6.2 hits. In September, three Cards are hitting over .300 (Tommy Edman, Yadier Molina and Dickerson), while the fourth-highest average is just .241 from Goldschmidt (with a .793 OPS). Nolan Arenado is at .218 (with a .628 OPS).

“There’s no concern on approach,” manager Oliver Marmol said after his team’s loss Sunday.

Albert Pujols made his 13,000th career plate appearance in the first inning Sunday, becoming one of six players in MLB history to reach that milestone. He remains at 698 career home runs. “The Machine” has gone yard twice in a game 64 times in his career (5th-most in MLB history).

Immediately after Pujols hits No. 699, Major League Baseball will introduce baseballs individually and sequentially marked to be used only in his at-bats. The special baseballs assure that if the homer vanishes into the crowd at Busch Stadium or elsewhere it can be forever identified as the one, true history maker. The baseballs will have an “overt marking” on them that identifies the sequence in which they will be used. Umpires, handed the baseballs at the start of each at-bat, will use that number to put the balls in play, in order.

Adam Wainwright will take the mound Tuesday. Wainwright (11-9) picked up the win over Milwaukee last Wednesday, allowing one run on eight hits and two walks while striking out three batters over five innings. Wainwright made history alongside teammate Yadier Molina, as the veterans logged their 325th start together as a battery, the most in major-league history.

Wainwright celebrated the accomplishment with his 11th victory of the campaign, working around eight singles and a pair of walks to allow just one run. The right-hander has put together a solid 17th season, posting a 3.29 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 137:47 K:BB over 178 innings. Wainwright has won five of his past six decisions, recording a 3.06 ERA across 10 games during that stretch.

Wainwright is facing the Padres for the 2nd time this season and 19th time in his career. The Cardinals are 12-6 in his 18 career appearances vs. San Diego, with 13 of his 15 starts being quality starts. His 2.54 career ERA vs. SD is his 3rd best among NL clubs (COL, 1.38 & LAD, 2.53). Wainwright has only allowed 6 HRs in his 99.1 IP vs. SD, with all six coming at Petco Park His last win at Petco Park came on 5/21/13 (10-2).

Why Bet on San Diego?

The Padres enter on a three-game winning streak following a 6-1 win at Arizona on Sunday – every win is vital at this point to earn a Wild-Card spot. Juan Soto went 3-for-4 with a solo homer and two RBI on Sunday. After the blockbuster trade at the trading deadline, Soto’s bat has gone mysteriously cold. He is slashing just .135/.312/.230 in the last month for the Padres. Soto’s fifth-inning blast ended a 17-game homer drought.

Manny Machado smashed a two-run homer in the win. He connected in the top of the first inning to give the Padres a quick 2-0 lead. Over his last seven games, he’s gone 4-for-26 (.154), and his homer Sunday was his first extra-base hit in that span. Machado is hitting .296/.365/.535 with 29 homers and 92 RBI across 584 plate appearances this year.

Josh Hader is tied for the fourth-most saves in MLB at 33 with the White Sox’s Liam Hendricks (33) and trailing Cleveland’s Emmanuel Clase (36), Atlanta’s Kenley Jansen (34) and Toronto’s Jordan Romano (33). However, Hader has allowed 13 ER in his 10.2 IP as a Padre (10.97 ERA), a .341 opponent clip (15-44) with 15 SO, 8 BB and 2 hit batters.

It’s Mike Clevinger on the mound Tuesday. Clevinger (5-7) was charged with the loss after he pitched five innings, giving up six runs on seven hits and two walks while striking out two vs. the Mariners last Wednesday. Clevinger struggled with the long ball, surrendering all six runs on three homers by the Mariners. Most notably, Carlos Santana busted the game wide-open with a three-run shot in the bottom of the fifth inning, giving Seattle a 6-0 lead.

Clevinger has now produced three consecutive disappointing starts, giving up 15 runs over 13.1 innings while allowing six homers over that span. The stretch has raised his ERA from 3.59 to 4.47 over 98.2 frames in 20 starts this season. In his first season back from November 2020 Tommy John surgery, Clevinger had five quality starts and a 3.61 ERA in a 10-start span from June 29 to Aug. 23. in four starts since then, he has an 8.34 ERA in a total of 18 1/3 innings.

“I’m just battling through some things right now,” Clevinger said. “I’m just trying to make it work with the best I’ve got. Some days, it’s there. Some days, it’s not.”

Game Trends

  • Cardinals are 20-8 in their last 28 games following a loss.
  • Cardinals are 5-2 in their last 7 games following an off day.
  • Cardinals are 10-4 in their last 14 road games.
  • Padres are 7-2 in their last 9 Tuesday games.
  • Padres are 5-2 in their last 7 during game 1 of a series.
  • Padres are 5-2 in their last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Cardinals are 0-5 in the last 5 meetings in San Diego.

Expert Prediction

  • Cardinals 4, Padres 3
 
 

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