Washington vs Miami 2022 MLB Expert Analysis

Washington vs Miami | MLB Odds & Matchup Stats

Written by on June 9, 2022

On the surface, Thursday’s series finale between the Nationals and Marlins is rather blah, but it marks the first time on a major-league mound for Washington pitcher and former World Series MVP Stephen Strasburg in more than a year. The Marlins, though, are slight favorites on the MLB odds.

How to Bet Nationals at Marlins MLB Odds & TV Info

Why Bet on Washington?

The worst pitcher in baseball this season had been Washington’s Joan Adon, but bad news for bettors in that he was optioned to Triple-A on Wednesday. The 23-year-old hurler was clobbered in his last outing and sports a terrible 6.95 ERA, 1.76 WHIP and 44/35 K/BB ratio through 55 2/3 innings in 12 starts. Reliever Sam Clay was called up to take his spot. He struggled in five appearances with the big league club this season, but sported a stellar 1.26 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 12/5 K/BB ratio over 14 1/3 innings at Triple-A.

Third baseman Maikel Franco wasn’t in Wednesday’s starting lineup but simply for rest and should be Thursday. Franco is 15-for-44 (.341) with four doubles, one homer, six RBI, one walk and five runs scored in his last 11 games. He has hit safely in 10 of the 11 games and recorded multi-hit efforts in four of them. His 15 doubles this season lead the Nationals and rank tied for seventh in the National League, while his 59 hits rank tied for 10th in the National League. Franco has hit safely in eight straight games, going 12-for-31 (.387) with a double, a homer one walk and four runs scored during the streak.

Juan Soto leads Major League Baseball with 46 walks this season. He has recorded at least one walk in 12 of his last 14 games. When he doesn’t walk, Soto is collecting extra-base hits. Seven of his last eight hits all been extra-base hits (3 2B, 4 HR). Additionally, Soto ranks ninth in the National league with a .373 on-base percentage.

It’s former World Series MVP Stephen Strasburg on the mound Thursday. Strasburg last pitched in the majors on June 1, 2021, before undergoing surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome. He also barely pitched in 2020.

It’s been a long road back for the right-hander, who enjoyed one of his best seasons in 2019 when he went 18-6 with a 3.32 ERA and 251 strikeouts while leading the NL in innings with 209. He was arguably even better in October of that year, earning World Series MVP honors after the Nationals prevailed against the Houston Astros. For his career, Strasburg has compiled a WAR of 31.2 and made three All-Star appearances.

As part of his recovery process, Strasburg undertook a minor-league rehab assignment. In three starts across two minor-league levels, he pitched to a 1.98 with 13 strikeouts in 13 2/3 innings and improved fastball velocity.

“I’m not going to put any limitations on him,” Manager Dave Martinez said. “We’ll see how far we can take him. We’ll keep a close eye on him, but this is one of the reasons why we wanted him to go through what he did and to make sure that he’s fully ready.”

Why Bet on Miami?

Outfielder Jesús Sánchez (back) was not in the Marlins’ starting lineup on Wednesday. Sánchez made an early exit from Tuesday’s game against the Nationals due to upper back tightness. Bryan De La Cruz started in center field and hit ninth on Wednesday. Miami is one of two teams in Major League Baseball (also Cleveland) with two players with three or more triples. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is tied for the MLB lead with four triples, while Sanchez has three.

Since May 9, Marlins catchers are hitting .309 as a group, second only to the Cubs for the best batting average by catchers in Major League Baseball during that span. Jacob Stallings has played the bulk of the games (20), batting .258 during that span to help raise his average 30 points.

The Marlins have played 22 one-run games this season, with a Major League-leading 15 losses in such games. Tied with Toronto (22, 15-7) for most one-run games this year. The Marlins lost 29 one-run games last season, tying their all-time franchise record (also 1998 and 2014).

It’s lefty Trevor Rogers (2-5) on the mound. Rogers was lifted after giving up five runs in 3 2/3 innings in the second game of last Wednesday’s doubleheader against the Rockies. Rodgers walked five and got just five missed swings while throwing 86 pitches. Rogers, last year’s NL Rookie of the Year runner-up, has a 5.80 ERA through 10 starts.

One thing in particular stands out: Rogers’ fastball is getting smacked around. He was dominant with it last year, recording more strikeouts on his 4-seamer (99) than any other lefty in the National League. The pitch that held hitters to an OPS of just .584 in his last campaign has skyrocketed to .963 Rogers will make his sixth career start vs. Washington. He is 1-2 with a 2.84 ERA (25.1 IP/8 ER).

Game Trends

  • Nationals are 14-43 in their last 57 vs. National League East.
  • Nationals are 1-5 in their last 6 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
  • Nationals are 6-13 in their last 19 road games.
  • Marlins are 4-1 in their last 5 games as a favorite.
  • Marlins are 4-1 in their last 5 Thursday games.
  • Nationals are 1-6 in the last 7 meetings.

Expert Prediction: Marlins 5, Nationals 4


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