2023 NBA East 2nd Round Playoffs New York at Miami Betting Preview

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Two teams that weren’t predicted to be meeting in the semifinal round of the Eastern Conference Playoffs have now set themselves up for a very physical and grinding series.

After Game 1’s physical play, we expect to see more of the same from these playoff rivals as the New York Knicks will host the Miami Heat for Game 2 of their Eastern Conference playoff series on Tuesday night.

The Knicks come into Game 2 down 1-0 after Sunday’s 108-101 loss to the Heat. The Knicks shot an abysmal 7-34 from beyond the arc, including an 0-7 performance from their star guard, Jalen Brunson. If the Knicks don’t shoot better in Game 2, they could be headed back to Miami down 2-0 to the #8-seeded Heat.

We will now preview each team prior to their Game 2 matchup, and we will then give you our best betting predictions for this pivotal Eastern Conference playoff game.

Keep reading for NBA Playoff betting lines, analysis, and free picks for New York hosting the Miami.

2023 NBA Playoffs East Second Round Game 2 Betting Preview: New York at Miami | MyBookie NBA Preview

East Semifinals – Game 2, MIA leads series 1-0
NBA Odds: Heat +6.5, Knicks -6.5, /Heat +240, Knicks -300 / O/U 207
When: Monday, May 1, 2023 at 8:00 pm ET
Where: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
TV / Streaming: NBA League Passs

Why Bet on Miami versus Knicks?

No one expected the Miami Heat to be in this series, let alone come into the "World’s Most Famous Arena" and knock off the favored New York Knicks in Game 1. Jimmy Butler wasn’t as good as he was at the end of the Milwaukee series, but he was good enough, as he led the Heat with 25 points and 11 rebounds.

The play of Gabe Vincent is what really sparked the Heat. Vincent scored 20 points, along with dishing out five assists. Kyle Lowry came off the bench to contribute 18 points along with six assists to help lead the Heat to victory.

Miami’s defense is always good, and it was a huge factor in the Heat’s victory. The Heat defense was one of the main reasons that the Knicks didn’t shoot well from beyond the arc. Miami threw multiple defenders at Brunson and made him work for every point that he scored.

Miami Heat Offensive Averages

Points/G: 110.1
FG %: 53.3
3PT %: 34.7
FT %: 82.7
Rebounds/G: 48.7

Miami Heat Defensive Averages

Points/G: 110.1
FG %: 55.9
3PT %: 36.0
FT %: 77.2
Rebounds/G: 49.7

Why Bet on Knicks versus Miami?

We’ve already talked about the Knicks’ poor shooting performance in Game 1. What we haven’t talked about was the absence of Julius Randle in the series opener. Randle’s ankle was an issue, and he didn’t play in Game 1.

We don’t know whether or not he’ll play in Game 2, but the Knicks sure could use his offense. The Heat defense did a great job on the New York Knicks, and they could use him in Game 2. He can also play physically, and this series looks like it’s going to be a grind throughout all of the games.

New York Knicks Offensive Averages

Points/G: 114.9
FG %: 53.7
3PT %: 35.4
FT %: 82.7
Rebounds/G: 55.4

New York Knicks Defensive Averages

Points/G: 112.0
FG %: 53.5
3PT %: 36.2
FT %: 77.2
Rebounds/G: 50.4

New York Knicks vs. Miami Heat Betting Trends

New York has an implied victory probability of 74.2% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.
Miami has been the moneyline underdog 24 total times this season. Miami has gone 8-16 in those games.
The Knicks score 6.2 more points per game (116) than the Heat give up (109.8).
New York is 33-21 against the spread and 35-19 overall when scoring more than 109.8 points.
Miami has a 25-33-3 record against the spread and a 38-23 record overall when allowing fewer than 116 points.
The Heat’s 109.5 points per game are just 3.6 fewer points than the 113.1 the Knicks allow to opponents.
This season, New York has outscored its implied point total for this matchup (107) 62 times.
Miami’s average implied point total on the season (112.4 points) is 12.4 points higher than its implied total in this matchup (100 points).
The Knicks are the league’s 11th-ranked scoring team (116 PPG), while the Heat allow the rank second in points per game (109.8) in NBA play.
Miami’s squad is currently the lowest-scoring team in the NBA (109.5 PPG), while New York’s team is 12th in points allowed per game (113.1).

Starting Lineups

Miami Heat
Gabe Vincent, Max Strus, jimmy Butler, Kevin Love, Bam Adebayo

Denver Nuggets
Jamal Murry, K. Caldwell-Pope, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordn, Nikola Jokic

Injuries

Miami Heat
Jimmy Butler (Ankle – Game Time), Victor Oladipo (Knee – out), Tyler Herro (Hand – out)

New York Knicks
Julius Randle (Lower Leg – Game Time), Jericho Sims (Shoulder – out)

Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets Betting Analysis

We failed to mention that Butler was hobbled at the end of Game 1, so between him and Randle, we’re not sure what Game 2 is going to look like at this moment. Heading into tomorrow night’s game, the oddsmakers have made the Knicks 6.5-point favorites.

Now, if there is an announcement on the status of either Randle or Butler today or early tomorrow, this line could change. If Butler doesn’t play, we could see the line go up two-three more points.

If Randle suits up and plays, we could see it move by a point or so in the Knicks’ favor. This is something to keep a close eye on. For now, we like the Knicks in Game 2. We think they’re going to rebound to win the game and cover the spread.

NBA Playoffs Round 2 Prediction: Knicks will cover | Bet Knicks vs. Heat Today
MyBookie Betting Lines for the Game