Warriors vs. Grizzlies NBA Betting Preview & Analysis

Warriors vs. Grizzlies | NBA Betting Preview & Analysis

The Memphis Grizzlies can all but clinch the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference playoffs on Monday night with a win over the No. 3 Golden State Warriors – both teams will be missing their superstar, though, in the Grizzlies’ Ja Morant and Dubs’ Steph Curry.

How to Bet Golden State at Memphis NBA Odds & TV Info

  • When: Monday, 8 PM ET
  • Where: FedExForum
  • TV: NBA TV
  • Stream: NBA.com, NBA TV app
  • Radio: Tunein.com
  • NBA Odds: Grizzlies -7.5 (total 224.5)

Season Series

Memphis leads 2-1. The teams last played on Jan. 11 in Memphis and the Grizzlies won 116-108. Ja Morant scored 29 points, including five in the final minute, but he’s currently out injured. Ziaire Williams and Tyus Jones had 17 points each. Jones keyed a fourth-quarter rally that put the Grizzlies ahead for good. He finished 6 for 8 from the field, including connecting on all five of his 3-point attempts. Stephen Curry led the Warriors with 27 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists for his second triple-double of the season. Klay Thompson finished with 14 points. Andrew Wiggins and Gary Payton II scored 13 each. Curry is out injured.

Why Bet on Golden State?

Don’t be surprised if the Warriors rest a few of their key starters after playing in Washington on Sunday. Golden State has two remaining sets of back-to-backs – April 2 vs. Utah, April 3 at Sacramento and April 9 at San Antonio and April 10 at New Orleans (final game of the regular season).

Superstar Steph Curry remains out injured with a foot injury. The Warriors are 1-4 since Curry was hurt in the March 16 loss vs. Boston. This season, the Warriors have a 3-8 record without Curry in the lineup. In the last three seasons, the Warriors have a 19-61 record in games without Curry (62-128, all-time). The trio of Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green played just 11 minutes together in three games this season. Kevon Looney is the only Warrior to play in every game this season.

“He’s still sort of in rehab stage. He’s not on the court yet, but everything’s going well … and again, they’re going to be cautious and make sure everything is in order by the time he really gets back on the court and starts getting after it. So, that hasn’t happened yet, but it shouldn’t be too far out,” Coach Steve Kerr said over the weekend.

Curry is ranked 12th in scoring (25.5 ppg); first in 3-pointers made (285) and first in free throw percentage (.923). Jordan Poole is ranked second in free throw percentage (.920). Among the rookie leaders, Jonathan Kuminga is ranked third in field goal percentage (.513), 14th in scoring (9.3 ppg), tied for 17th in rebounding (3.3 rpg).

The Warriors are tied with Phoenix for the highest plus-minus for the second half at +4.3. Golden State also has the highest plus-minus for the third quarter (+3.3). The +3.3 in the third quarter is the highest of any quarter this season.

Golden State ranks fifth in assists (27.1 apg), sixth in field goal percentage (.468), ninth in 3-point field goal percentage (.361), and 13th in the NBA in scoring (111.0 ppg). Defensively, the Warriors are ranked fourth in opponent scoring (105.2 ppg), second in opponent field goal percentage (.439), fourth in opponent 3-point field goal percentage (.340), second in steals (8.95 spg), and tied for seventh in rebounding (45.6 rpg).

Why Bet on Memphis?

Grizzlies star Ja Morant will miss at least another week if not longer with a knee injury. The Grizzlies are a shocking 16-2 without Morant this season, which allows the team to be more cautious with his injury than if they were struggling in his absence. If all goes well at that two-week reevaluation, Morant will have gotten a nice break leading into the playoffs.

Memphis comes off a 127-102 win over Milwaukee on Saturday in a potential NBA Finals preview. De’Anthony Melton ad 24 points on 8-for-11 shooting. Over his last four games, all of which being with Morant on the sidelines, Melton has been rolling. His three-pointers are particularly noteworthy as he’s gone 21-of-34 (61.8%) from range in that four-game stretch. Tyus Jones has been starting for Ja Morant and amassed 13 points with 10 assists Saturday. Desmond Bane had 20 points in the win. He’s now scored at least 20 points in four straight games.

Steven Adams grabbed 11 rebounds, six offensive, to go with five assists, two blocks and a steal. With his third offensive rebound of the night, Adams passed Zach Randolph (330 in 2009-10) for the most offensive rebounds in a single season in franchise history.

Forward Brandon Clarke (left hip) didn’t play Saturday. Clarke’s hip is progressing, and coach Taylor Jenkins said the team is “being cautious and hopeful that he will be available on Monday.” Clarke is questionable as is fellow forward Jaren Jackson Jr. Jackson started and played 27 minutes in Saturday’s win over the Bucks, but he is dealing with a sore thigh. If he’s unable to play Ziaire Williams and Kyle Anderson appear to be the players most likely to fill the void.

The Grizzlies’ 25-point win Saturday marked the largest margin of victory between the two teams, eclipsing a 20-point win on March 13, 2017. It was Memphis’ 12th 25-point win of the season. The Grizzlies outscored the Bucks 22-7 on second chance points while pulling down 16 offensive rebounds. The Grizzlies lead the NBA in second chance points per game (18.7) and offensive rebounds per game (14.2).

Memphis has won seven in a row at home.

Game Trends

  • Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
  • Warriors are 37-17-4 ATS in their last 58 Monday games.
  • Warriors are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • Grizzlies are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
  • Grizzlies are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 Monday games.
  • Grizzlies are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games.

Expert Prediction

  • Grizzlies 111, Warriors 104
 
 

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