BPI Projections for the 2020-21 NCAAB Season

BPI Projections for the 2020-21 NCAAB Season

Written by on December 7, 2020

Okay MyBookie college basketball betting enthusiasts, with the 2020-21 NCAA hoops season heading into its third week of action, it’s time to take a look at the latest college basketball BPI projections so you can place your bets against their College Basketball odds

College Basketball BPI projections for 2020-21 season

So, what is the BPI?

The College Basketball Power Index (BPI) measures the strength of every team in terms of predicting future performance. BPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. There is a bunch of data the BPI uses in its calculations to measure how difficult a team’s Win/Loss record is to achieve. For example, game predictions are based of factors like pace of play, site, travel distance, day’s rest and altitude. Ratings are based on four main factors. 

  1. Quantity of experience on roster (including transfers)
  2. Quality of that experience
  3. Recruiting rankings for incoming freshmen, with extra emphasis on five-star players
  4. Coach’s past performance

Now, let’s look at the latest BPI. The following winning percentages are to win/tie for the conference championship, make an NCAA Tournament appearance and win the 2021 National Championship. 

Top 25 BPI teams

SchoolBPI RatingWin/Tie Conf%NCAA App%NCAA title%
Texas Tech11.0047957629996
Michigan State10.6576028625984
North Carolina State9.3281188713942
North Carolina9.1121278789871
West Virginia8.9845082949972
Brigham Young8.63486755434791

Perennially-powerful Gonzaga (3-0) might be the top-ranked team in the nation, but according to the BPI, it is currently 12th-ranked Villanova (4-1)  that is going to end up as the best team in the country. The Zags are off to a 3-0 start while Villanova is 4-1 with an overtime loss to Virginia Tech on its resumè.  

A pair of surprise teams are next as No. 3 Iowa (3-0) and No. 15 Virginia (3-1) are tied for third in the BPI rankings at an identical eight percent.  Iowa has spanked three completely overmatched opponents while Virginia suffered a stunning one-point loss against Stephen F. Austin. Gonzaga sits alone with a seven percent chance of winning it all. Gonzaga has answered the bell three times against three big-time opponents including No. 6 Kansas and No. 11 West Virginia

17th-ranked Texas Tech (4-1) has a six percent chance of winning the national championship, even though the Red Raiders looked awful in their humbling 64-53 loss to Houston. No. 8 Michigan State (4-0) is tied for seventh in the BPI rankings with seventh-ranked Kansas and sixth-ranked Duke, despite being the Blue Devils 75-69 in their regular season opener. Ninth-ranked Creighton (3-0) sits in 10th place in the BPI after getting off to a 3-0 start. 

If you want to know why the BPI could matter later on, then you should know that teams ranked in the top four in preseason BPI have won the national championship in 10 of the past 12 full seasons, with both UConn titles (2011, 2014) being the exceptions. Villanova was No. 1 in BPI going into the season and their overtime loss to a top-50 BPI Virginia Tech team wasn’t enough to change its outlook moving forward. 

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