Purdue Vs Michigan State Expert Analysis - NCAAB Betting

Purdue Vs Michigan State Expert Analysis – NCAAB Betting

Written by on January 7, 2021

The 23rd-ranked Michigan State Spartans will look to avoid the upset when they host the Purdue Boilermakers in their Big Ten battle on Friday night. Will the Spartans take care of business after getting a confidence-boosting win the last time out or will the Boilermakers get the huge road victory to snap out of the funk they’ve been in since late last month? Let’s find out which team is offering the best value against their College Basketball odds in this Big Ten battle!

College Basketball Predictions – Purdue at No. 23 Michigan State

Why Bet On Purdue

The Boilermakers have dropped two straight and three of its last four games including a humbling 66-58 road loss against No. 12 Illinois on Saturday. Purdue had their Tuesday home date against Nebraska postponed due to coronavirus issues within the Cornhuskers program.

Brandon Newman and Trevion Williams tied for a team-high 14 points, but no other player managed to reach double figures in scoring in the loss. Purdue trailed by 10 at the break and could never get over the hump in the second half while shooting a tepid 39.0 percent from the field. Purdue had 14 turnovers in the loss.

“Just overall execution,” coach Matt Painter said. “We have good stretches in the game, and then we have bad stretches. We need to replace our bad stretches with average stretches.”

Painter is trying to teach his team about having quality possessions every time down the floor.

“We just go into the tank a little bit when you miss a shot or turn the ball over a couple times,” Painter said. “It`’s just the awareness of, ‘Hey, we have to have a good possession here.’ We just don’t have that.”

The Boilermakers have gone a winless 0-4 on the road this season.


  • Points/G: 71.6
  • Field Goal %: 46.1
  • 3-Point %: 37.9
  • Free Throw %: 69.7
  • Rebounds/G: 33.7


  • Points/G: 67.3
  • Field Goal %: 42.7
  • 3-Point %: 32.5
  • Free Throw %: 67.5
  • Rebounds/G: 27.3

Why Bet On No. 23 Michigan State

The Spartans have won two straight after losing their first three Big Ten conference battles this season. Michigan State jumped all over No. 15 Rutgers on Tuesday night to get a commanding 68-45 home win as a slight, 3-point favorite. Junior forward Aaron Henry scored a team-high 20 points while adding eight rebounds in the win, one game after posting a career-high 27 points against Nebraska one game prior.

“We’ll all marvel at his 20 points, (but) the last two games, he’s been unbelievable defensively,” coach Tom Izzo said. “He got into some people (Tuesday), he knocked some balls loose, it’s just his whole demeanor right now. He’s even more coachable, not that he hasn’t been this year. He’s just doing the things he needs to do to become a great player, and he’s got a ways to go, but I think that starts it.”

Joshua Langford and Rocket Watts each added 11 points in the win while Joey Hauser pulled down 14 rebounds and hipped in nine points.

“I feel like it’s important for the leaders, Josh (Langford), Frosty (Foster Loyer) and myself having been here so long and having gone through ups and downs throughout seasons to understand,” Henry said.

The Spartans have gone a near-perfect 6-1 at home this season.


  • Points/G: 78.0
  • Field Goal %: 45.2
  • 3-Point %: 35.3
  • Free Throw %: 76.7
  • Rebounds/G: 36.8


  • Points/G: 72.8
  • Field Goal %: 42.5
  • 3-Point %: 35.1
  • Free Throw %: 74.4
  • Rebounds/G: 29.5

Purdue Boilermakers (7-5) Vs Michigan State Spartans (8-3)

  • When: Friday, Jan. 8, 2021 at
  • Where: Breslin Center, East Lansing, MI
  • TV: FS1
  • NCAAB Odds: TBD

Expert Analysis and Prediction

There’s no other way for me to say it. I believe Purdue is facing Michigan State at a bad time right now. The Boilermakers are struggling to score, having been limited to 58 points or less in two of their last three losses. Combine that with the fact that Michigan State has recorded a pair of confidence-boosting wins in their last two games and it’s easy to see why I like the Spartans to win and cover the spread as home favorite of somewhere between 5 and 8 points.

The Boilermakers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six road games 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games and 0-7-2 ATS in their last 9 games games against a team with a winning straight up record. Michigan State might be 1-4 ATS in their last five home games and 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall, but the Favorite is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings while the Home team has gone 4-0-1 ATS in their last five meetings. I like Michigan State to get the win, by eight to almost assuredly cover the spread!

Pick: Michigan State 76 Purdue 68

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