3 Reasons to Bet the Under for Super Bowl LIV

3 Reasons to Bet the Under for Super Bowl LIV

Written by on January 28, 2020

We are in the final few days before we get to enjoy what should be a very exciting Super Bowl. The Kansas City Chiefs, who are appearing in the big game for the first time in 50 years, will be squaring off against the San Francisco 49ers. There are going to be countless ways to wager on this game, with everything from the length of the national anthem to the first score all up for grabs in the prop bet section. For the purposes of this piece, though, we are going to solely focus on the point total, and the UNDER in particular. We will be looking at reasons for betting the OVER in a separate piece, but for now, let’s look at 3 reasons why you might want to play the UNDER in Super Bowl LIV.

3 Reasons to Bet the Under for Super Bowl LIV

The Kansas City Chiefs and the UNDER

Over the course of the season and the playoffs, the Kansas City Chiefs have gone 10-8 O/U, so they are certainly leaning a little more towards the OVER here. If we look at the games that the Chiefs started as a favorite, which they will do this coming Sunday, the results are more of the same, with the O/U in those matchups sitting at 8-7.

While it has been the OVER that has hit in both playoff games for Kansas City, it is worth looking back at the final few weeks of the season. The Chiefs defense got hot, which helped the UNDER hit in 5 of their last 6 regular season games. Given the Chiefs offensive prowess, the UNDER is always a bit of a gamble.

The San Francisco 49ers and the UNDER

The 49ers have a very similar record to that of the Chiefs wen we talk about the point total this season, going 9-8-1 O/U through the regular season and the playoffs. Again, this would suggest that the OVER would be the play to make here, but things slide in the favor of the UNDER, just a little, when you look at the 49ers as an underdog this season.

In those 5 games, the O/U came in at 2-3, so still not an entirely convincing argument for the UNDER to be found there. While the Super Bowl is a neutral site game, both teams taking part are assigned as either the home or away team. The 49ers are listed as the away team, and while this particular stat should not be taken too seriously, they were 3-4-1 in road games this season.

Historical Data

The point total for Super Bowl LIV is currently sitting at 54 ½, which could well be seen as a pretty big point total for a championship game. If we look at the previous 53 Super Bowls, we see that only 15 of those games have gone over that point total. Simple math tells us that 38 of the 53 games have seen less than 54 ½ points scored, which is a pretty convincing argument for the UNDER.