Chicago vs Green Bay | NFL Betting Analysis & Odds Week 14

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The Chicago Bears have been punching bags for the Green Bay Packers for the better part of two decades and that’s expected to continue on Sunday night with Green Bay a heavy home favorite against the Bears on the NFL odds.

How to Bet Bears at Packers NFL Odds & TV Info

When: Sunday, 8:20 PM ET
Where: Lambeau Field
TV: NBC
Radio: http://www.siriusxm.com/nfl
Stream Option: NBC Sports Live
Opening NFL Lines: Packers -12.5 (total 43)

Last Meeting

In Week 6, the Packers were 24-14 winners in Chicago. Matt LaFleur’s team went on a 17-0 run during the second and third quarters to overcome a 7-0 first-quarter deficit and then slammed the door shut with a touchdown run by Aaron Rodgers in the fourth quarter. Sunday will mark Game No. 204 in the NFL’s oldest rivalry. The Packers hold a 102-95-6 edge in the series, which includes two playoff games (1-1). Including the postseason, the Packers have won 20 of the last 23 meetings, including each of the last five.

Why Bet on Chicago?

Chicago lost for the sixth time in the past seven games last Sunday, 33-22 vs. Arizona. Andy Dalton completed 26-of-41 passes for 229 yards, two touchdowns and four interceptions. The fifth four-interception performance of Dalton’s 11-year career came in rainy, swirling conditions at Soldier Field, but his counterpart Kyler Murray committed zero giveaways. Three of Dalton’s four picks were on the quarterback, with none worse than his fake screen throwback job at the 7:08 mark of the fourth quarter.

David Montgomery rushed 21 times for 90 yards and a touchdown, adding eight receptions for 51 additional yards. He had a season-high 29 touches. Montgomery was inches from another touchdown in the third quarter, but replay ruled him down.

Montgomery is in some question for this game with multiple injuries, while Dalton will not start at QB as Justin Fields has been cleared to return from fractured ribs. Fields missed the last two games with broken ribs he sustained Nov. 21 in a loss to the Ravens. The first-round draft pick returned to practice last week on a limited basis.

While Fields struggled against the Ravens, he had shown marked growth in his two previous games. He became the first quarterback in Bears history with at least 175 passing yards and 100 rushing yards against the 49ers and followed with an impressive performance versus the Steelers, passing for a career-high 291 yards and engineering a late go-ahead touchdown drive.

Top Bears receiver Allen Robinson hasn’t played since Week 9 vs. Pittsburgh but is planning to return as well. Robinson’s most productive game of the season was his last one, catching four passes for 68 yards against the Steelers. He hasn’t gone over 100 yards in a game since Week 16 of last season.

Since Matt Nagy took over in Chicago, the Bears are 1-6 against the Packers. That lone win came during Nagy’s first season in 2018, when the Bears defeated the Packers 24-17 at Soldier Field to win the NFC North title for the first time in eight years.

Why Bet on Green Bay?

The Packers come out of their bye week in control of the NFC North. At 9-3, they’re currently in the No. 2 position in the NFC behind the Arizona Cardinals (10-2), and they have the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Cardinals because of their Oct. 28 win.

Aaron Rodgers is dealing with a broken toe and may not practice again all week but that hasn’t slowed him down. Rodgers has won five straight against the Bears and is 22-5 overall as a starter against the Packers’ NFC North rival. It’s the third-best winning percentage (.815) by any quarterback with at least 25 starts against a single opponent since 1950, behind only Tom Brady against the Buffalo Bills (32-3, .914) and Ben Roethlisberger against the Cleveland Browns (24-3-1, .875).

Rodgers has registered passer ratings of 128.0, 132.2 and 147.9 against the Bears in his last three outings, giving him nine games with a passer rating of 125-plus against the Bears (min. 15 att.), the tied for the most by a QB against a single opponent.

Pro Bowl cornerback Jaire Alexander could return this week but the Packers need to be smart with their top corner, who hasn’t played since suffering a shoulder injury in Week 4. Alexander avoided season-ending surgery to repair his AC joint, instead opting for rest and immobilization. Green Bay might wait one more week, knowing it doesn’t need Alexander to beat the Bears.

The Packers will be without WR Randall Cobb on Sunday and maybe the rest of the season. This elevates Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Allen Lazard into a bigger snap load against the Bears. Cobb has 28 catches for 375 yards and five scores.

Green Bay has won 11 of the last 13 meetings against the Bears at Lambeau Field, including a 41-25 victory last season. The Packers have outscored Chicago, 361-195, in the last 13 home games, scoring 20-plus points in 11 of those contests.

In the last five games against Chicago, the Packers have allowed 71 points (14.2 ppg), forced 10 turnovers and committed just one turnover (plus-nine). The Packers have held the Bears to 28 points or less in each of the last 27 games (every regular-season game dating back to 2008).

Game Trends

Bears are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games.
Bears are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Bears are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 vs. NFC North.
Packers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC.
Packers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.
Packers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.