Colts vs. Bills NFL Odds AFC Playoff Rematch

Colts vs. Bills NFL Odds | AFC Playoff Rematch

The Buffalo Bills beat the Indianapolis Colts in last season’s wild-card round and the teams meet again in Buffalo on Sunday in one of the marquee matchups of Week 11 around the NFL. The Bills are solid favorites on the NFL odds.

How to Bet Indianapolis at Buffalo NFL Odds & TV Info

  • When: Sunday, 1 PM ET
  • Where: Highmark Stadium
  • TV: CBS
  • Radio:
  • Opening NFL Lines: Bills -7 (total 50)

Last Meeting

In the wild-card round of last season’s playoffs, the Bills beat the visiting Colts 27-24. Josh Allen had two TD passes and rushed for one to lead Buffalo. Allen finished 26 of 35 for 324 yards with a 5-yard touchdown to Dawson Knox and a 35-yarder to Stefon Diggs, Bills safety Micah Hyde batted down Philip Rivers’ desperation pass as time ran out in helping Buffalo snap an 0-6 postseason skid. Rivers is now retired. Bills kicker Tyler Bass accounted for the decisive points by hitting a 54-yard field goal to put Buffalo up 27-16 with 8:08 remaining.

Why Bet on Indianapolis?

The Colts (5-5) won for the fourth time in five games on Sunday, 23-17 over Indianapolis. Running back Jonathan Taylor rushed for 116 yards and one touchdown. Taylor is the fourth player to register at least 100 scrimmage yards and a rushing touchdown in seven consecutive games in NFL history, joining LaDainian Tomlinson (eight consecutive games in 2006), Lydell Mitchell (eight from 1975-76) and Larry Johnson (seven in 2005).

Taylor is now tied with the injured Derrick Henry for the league lead in rushing yards. Henry is likely done for the season. Taylor is 216 yards ahead of the running back in third place — Cleveland’s Nick Chubb — and is averaging 5.8 yards per carry (second among running backs) and has nine touchdowns (third). The Colts are 8-0 when Taylor has 100 or more rushing yards.

Carson Wentz completed 22-of-34 passes for 180 yards in the win. Wentz wasn’t needed much with Taylor running for over 100 yards in the first half. He spent most of the second half managing the game, setting up a field goal late in the fourth quarter on a throw to Michael Pittman that gave the Colts a two-score lead. It was the first time since Week 3 Wentz hadn’t thrown a touchdown.

After dropping their first three games, the Colts are attempting to become just the seventh team in NFL history to make the playoffs after an 0-3 start. In the previous 22 seasons, only the 2018 Houston Texans have made the playoffs after losing their first three games.

“To be 5-5 is huge when you were sitting at 1-4 at one point,” center Ryan Kelly said. “Those have been some growing pains that this team had to go through. I think that we continue to see when the offense is doing real well, carry the defense and vice versa. The defense kind of carried us a little bit today. I think we’re starting to play complementary football. We’ve just got to put it all together for four quarters.”

Why Bet on Buffalo?

The Bills (6-3) crushed the Jets 45-17 on Sunday. Josh Allen completed 21-of-28 passes for 366 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. One week after looking nothing like himself in a stunning loss to the Jags, Allen got his deep game going again. He completed passes of 57, 23, 36, 20 and 43 yards.

Stefon Diggs was the recipient on three of those 20-plus yard completions as the duo finally got their down-field connection going after a half season of frustration. Diggs caught 8-of-13 targets for 162 yards and a touchdown. It was only his second 100-yard game of the season.

This week, the Bills activated backup QB Mitchell Trubisky from the reserve/COVID-19 list. Trubisky and Jake Fromm were both placed on the list last week so David Webb served as Allen’s backup. Although Trubisky flamed out in Chicago, he’s still one of the league’s better backups.

The Bills (plus 14 with 24 takeaways) and Colts (plus 11 with 21 takeaways) rank first and second in the NFL, respectively, in both turnover margin and takeaways this season. The last time two teams leading the league in both categories met in Week 11 or later was Week 12 of the 2016 season, when Kansas City beat Denver, 30-27, in overtime. Buffalo’s defense leads the NFL in both fewest total yards allowed per game (274.1) and fewest points allowed per game (15.0).

As noted above, Sunday’s contest is a rematch of a 2020 AFC Wild Card game, won by the Bills. To date, the 2021 schedule has featured six 2020 playoff rematches, and teams have avenged a playoff loss in four of those six games.

Game Trends

  • Colts are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games.
  • Colts are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
  • Colts are 18-8 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Bills are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a home favorite.
  • Bills are 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 games overall.
  • Bills are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS win.
  • Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

Expert Prediction

  • Bills 26, Colts 20


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