New England vs Miami Odds Week 1 NFL

New England vs Miami Odds Week 1 NFL

Written by on September 8, 2022

The Miami Dolphins have high expectations this season after trading for All-Pro receiver Tyreek Hill and hiring a new head coach in Mike McDaniel, and the Fins are favored on the NFL odds at home in their season opener Sunday vs. rival New England.

How to Bet Patriots at Dolphins NFL Odds & TV Info

Last Season

Miami won both meetings. At home, it was 33-24 in Week 18 in what would be the final game of Brian Flores’ coaching career in Miami. Xavien Howard returned an interception for a touchdown and Duke Johnson rushed for 117 yards and a score for Miami. Jaylen Waddle had a touchdown grab. Brandon Bolden two touchdowns — one rushing, one receiving — for the Patriots. Mac Jones completed 20 of 30 passes for 261 yards for New England. The Patriots got the ball back with 3 seconds left, needing 98 yards for a score, and Miami’s Sam Eguaoven was credited with recovering a fumble that became a game-ending touchdown after a lateral went awry.

Why Bet on New England?

The Patriots lost their second-most important coach this offseason in offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, now the head coach with the Raiders. McDaniels was by far the longest tenured offensive coordinator in the league. Not even counting his first stint on the job between 2006 and 2008, he held the position for 10 seasons following his return in 2012. Four years ago, when McDaniels was poised to take over in Indy, the Patriots — owner Robert Kraft especially — decided he didn’t want to lose him and threw up a Hail Mary to keep him. Not this time.

Patriots offensive tackle Isaiah Wynn returned to practice Wednesday. Wynn has been dealing with an unknown injury since training camp. Bill Belichick has already said Wynn has a shot to play in Week 1. An early return to practice puts him on track to face Miami. Belichick said every Patriots player “should have a shot” to suit up and play in the opener, outside of rookie receiver Tyquan Thornton, who is still recovering from a collarbone injury and on injured reserve.

Belichick has been complementary of the work that running back Rhamondre Stevenson has put in this offseason. One of the more noticeable changes has been his effort to become more of a weapon in the passing game. Stevenson caught 14 passes for 123 yards in 2021. With Brandon Bolden’s departure, it should open up opportunities for him to become more of a weapon in the passing game. Stevenson and Damien Harris both have the tools to be productive running between the tackles, and the Dolphins defense was just average (110 yards per game, 14th) stopping the run in 2021.

The Patriots and Dolphins will square off on opening day for the 11th time in team history and for the third straight season after the 17-16 season-opening loss vs. Miami on Sept. 12, 2021. The Patriots will open the season at Miami for the first time since the 2014 season.

Since 2000, the Patriots are 99-37 (.728) against AFC East opponents. New England is 26-18 against the Dolphins over that span, 34-10 against the New York Jets and 36-8 against the Buffalo Bills. The Patriots rank third across the AFC for the most kickoff weekend wins.

Why Bet on Miami?

Miami has significantly upgraded their offense since beating the Patriots in the 2021 regular-season finale, trading for receiver Tyreek Hill and solidifying their offensive line with the additions of Terron Armstead and Connor Williams. Defensively, much remains the same, with shutdown cornerback Xavien Howard leading an aggressive unit that has a collection of experienced physical defenders up front.

The six-time Pro Bowler Hill possesses elite-level speed that can really change the dynamic of an offense, and we saw just a brief glimpse of that in the preseason finale, as Tua Tagovailoa and Hill connected on a deep ball on their first offensive play of the game. In his six NFL seasons, Hill has scored six touchdowns in Week 1 games, while averaging 95 receiving yards in the opening contest through those seasons.

Tagovailoa’s 2022 performance will determine whether the Dolphins pick up his fully guaranteed, fifth-year option for 2024, which could be in the $25 million neighborhood. The Dolphins have given Tagovailoa, 2020’s fifth overall pick, tools to succeed.  The Dolphins are 3-1 when opening the season at home against the Patriots. Tagovailoa is also 3-0 against New England so far in his career.

Will fellow wideout Jaylen Waddle play Sunday? He is on track despite battling an apparent leg injury throughout the summer. The 23-year-old Waddle, who set a new NFL rookie record for catches (104) last year, sat out the Dolphins’ entire preseason and also missed time during joint practices with an undisclosed injury. Coach Mike McDaniel, however, has been bullish about the young receiver’s availability going into 2022, telling reporters recently that he was “very, very, very confident” Waddle would be ready for Week 1.

On defense, the Fins are without cornerback Byron Jones as he is on reserve/PUP. Jones will now miss at least the first four weeks of the season. Jones is entering his third season in Miami after signing a monster contract. He has four career interceptions to his name and was Pro Football Focus’ No. 93 cover corner last season. In his absence, Nik Needham, Noah Igbinoghene and Keion Crossen stand to garner increased roles in Miami’s secondary.

Game Trends

  • Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC.
  • Dolphins are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
  • Dolphins are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 1.
  • Dolphins are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a home favorite.
  • Home team is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 meetings.

Expert Prediction

  • Dolphins 24, Patriots 20

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