The top three AFC seeds won their respective wild card games over the weekend, which means the top four seeds in the conference head to the AFC Divisional Round. The Kansas City Chiefs host the Buffalo Bills while the Tennessee Titans take on the Cincinnati Bengals. Check out AFC Championship odds for each squad along with an odds analysis.
Betting Projections for AFC Conference Winners After Wild Card Matches
2022 AFC Championship
- When: Sunday, Jan. 31 at 3:00 pm ET
Updated 2022 AFC Championship Odds
Do the Kansas City Chiefs offer underlay or overlay odds?
This is the most difficult question to answer. At first glance, it sure looks as if Kansas City offers underlay odds.
But before dumping on the Chiefs, it’s important to realize a couple of things. First, once KC got it going against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday night, it was over. The Steelers could do nothing to stop KC’s passing attack.
If Mahomes and his teammates are as sharp this weekend against the Bills, the Chiefs should win that game. Then, it’s a matter of exacting revenge over Joe Burrow and the Bengals or Ryan Tannehill and the Titans.
In that sense, the Chiefs offer fair odds. We can’t really say they’re at an underlay number after witnessing how thoroughly KC dominated a decent Pittsburgh defense.
We can’t say the odds make the Chiefs an overlay because the Titans, Bengals, and Bills all beat KC during the regular season. Kansas City offers fair odds to win the conference. So if you believe, go for it.
Can the Cincinnati Bengals pull off the AFC Championship upset?
Based on how Cincinnati played against the Raiders, they don’t have much of a chance of winning the conference. But before we can stick a fork in the Bengals, we should take a deeper look.
After a deeper look, we realize Cincinnati had a lot going against it in the win over Las Vegas. The Bengals were trying to win their first playoff game since 1991. The game was Joe Burrow’s first and their top defensive player, Trey Hendrickson, left early due to a concussion.
As long as Burrow is connecting with Ja’Marr Chase, and the pair were connecting on Saturday, the Bengals can win playoff games. So, yes, the odds are stacked against Cincinnati. But Burrow is a difference maker. So if you want to take a chance on the longest shot on the board, give the Bengals a look.
Among the Chiefs, Bills, Bengals, and Titans, which team, not based on odds, wins the AFC?
Buffalo is on a 5-game winning streak. They’ve scored at least 27 or more in all 5. Not only that, but Josh Allen is impossible to stop. If you take away the pass, he’ll burn you with the rush.
If you take away the rush, he’ll torch you with his passing ability. Allen can take over a game with his arm and his legs.
Kansas City’s Mahomes is the best quarterback in the league. He doesn’t run as much as Allen, but he’s got experience. Not only that, but KC’s defense is playing as well, if not better, than Buffalo’s.
Of the two, the Bills are the better play because they’ve proven they can beat the Chiefs. So the onus in next week’s game will be on the Chiefs to stop Allen. So if we had to choose between the two, Buffalo is the better play.