Super Bowl Betting Trend & Stats to Study Before the Game

Super Bowl LVII takes place on Sunday, February 12, at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. The 57th edition of the National Football League’s (NFL) championship pits the Kansas City Chiefs against the Philadelphia Eagles. Both teams are looking to win their second Super Bowl in the last six years.

Philadelphia defeated the Patriots 41-33 in Super Bowl LII, while the Chiefs beat the San Francisco 49ers 31-20 in Super Bowl LIV. Kansas City is in its third Super Bowl in four years after a somewhat controversial 23-20 win over the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC Championship. The Eagles punched their ticket to the Super Bowl with a dominant victory over the 49ers.

This game is the biggest Super Bowl betting event of the year. If you’re new to wagering on the “Big Game,” here’s a primer on what stats and trends to consider.

Historical Results for Betting Favorite

This is subject to change based on betting trends, but the Philadelphia Eagles are currently -1.5 point favorites over the Chiefs. The Eagles are -125 moneyline favorites, while Kansas City is +105 underdogs. The betting favorite has won 32 of the 56 Super Bowls thus far for a winning percentage of 57.14. The favorite has won four of the last six Super Bowls. Kansas City was the favorite when they won against San Francisco, but lost as the favorites to Tampa Bay in Super Bowl LV.

Interestingly, the underdog has won in each of the three Super Bowls in which the Eagles participated. Philadelphia won as an underdog five years ago and lost as the favorites in Super Bowl XXIX and Super Bowl XV.

Quarterback Performance

There’s no player with more impact on the game than the quarterback, so let’s take a look at the recent performances of Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts. Mahomes may have the better resume and is a likely choice to win the NFL MVP this season, but he’s dealing with an ankle injury that could still impact his performance next Sunday.

Mahomes finished the season with a league-best 5,250 passing yards and 41 touchdowns. He also rushed for 358 yards, which is just 23 off of his career-high in that category. He’s had a QB rating of at least 100 in each of his past six games and has thrown for at least two TDs in six of his last seven games.

Hurts is certainly not as proven as Mahomes, but he should also be in consideration for the NFL MVP. Hurts finished the season with 3,701 passing yards and 22 touchdowns compared to just six interceptions. He’s more mobile than Mahomes, rushing for at least 750 yards for the second consecutive season. It’s troubling, however, that he hasn’t thrown a TD in three of his last four games.

Run Defense

The Chiefs and Eagles rank 11th and 12th, respectively, in rushing yards per carry this season, but the Eagles utilize the run much more often, with 544 carries compared to 417. Run defense, then, can play a pivotal role in next Sunday’s game.

The Chiefs’ run defense is slightly better than the Eagles, at least based on the 2022 regular season. However, Philadelphia played the league’s best rush defense in the 49ers last weekend and rushed for 148 yards.

 

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