Tampa Bay vs New Orleans 2022 NFL Expert Analysis

Tampa Bay vs New Orleans | 2022 NFL Betting Favorites, Analysis & Prediction

Written by on September 16, 2022

The New Orleans Saints are 4-0 against Tom Brady in the regular season since Brady joined the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Can Brady break through on Sunday in the Big Easy? His Bucs are short favorites on the NFL odds.

How to Bet Bucs at Saints NFL Odds & TV Info

  • When: Sunday, 1 PM ET
  • Where: Caesars Superdome
  • TV: FOX
  • Radio: http://www.siriusxm.com/nfl
  • Stream Option: NFLSUNDAYTICKET.TV
  • Opening NFL Lines: Bucs -2.5 (total 44.5)

Last Season

The Saints won both matchups in 2021, including 36-27 at home. P.J. Williams intercepted Tom Brady and returned it 40 yards for a touchdown with 1:24 left, helping New Orleans seal. New Orleans won despite losing starting QB Jameis Winston during the game for what would prove a season-ending injury. Backup Trevor Siemian took over for Winston and completed 16 of 29 passes for 159 yards and a touchdown without a turnover, leading the Saints on five scoring drives that produced two touchdowns and three field goals. Siemian is now in Chicago. Brady passed for four TDs, but also turned the ball over three times on a pair of interceptions and a fumble, which the Saints converted into 16 points.

Overall, the Saints hold a 39-21 edge in the all-time series, which was first contested in 1977. Since they became division mates, the Bucs and Saints have squared off 40 times, 26 of them going in favor of New Orleans.

Why Bet on Tampa Bay?

The Bucs were 19-3 winners in Dallas in Week 1. Leonard Fournette rushed 21 times for 127 yards, adding two catches for 10 yards on two targets. Fournette didn’t have a rush longer than 17 yards, but consistently found success, especially to the outside as Tampa was able to run him into Dallas’ cornerbacks. He did appear a little shaken up after his final carry in the fourth quarter.

Tom Brady completed 18-of-27 passes for 212 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. Brady was sacked twice on key third downs in Dallas territory. In his Bucs debut, Julio Jones caught 3-of-5 targets for 69 yards, adding two carries for 17 yards. Mike Evans caught 5-of-7 passes for 71 yards and a touchdown.

Inside linebacker Devin White spearheaded the defensive effort, amassing 2.0 sacks for 17 yards and six tackles. With rare closing speed and read/react skills, White put on a show. The Buccaneers’ defense held the Cowboys to 244 total yards on 11 possessions. The Cowboys converted just three of 15 third-down attempts.

Tampa’s Jones, Evans and fellow former Pro Bowl WR Chris Godwin all have failed to practice this week through Thursday. It is thought Jones and Evans will play but Godwin is expected to miss a few weeks after injuring his hamstring in Week 1.

The Bucs have a seven-game losing streak to the Saints in the regular season, dating back to the second half of 2018 and including the four contests with Brady at the helm of the Bucs’ offense. Tampa Bay did win the most important game in that span, a 2020 Divisional Round matchup that was part of the team’s run to a Super Bowl LV title, but otherwise the Saints have prevailed seven times by an average score of 30-15.

Why Bet on New Orleans?

Four teams – Indianapolis (17-point deficit), New Orleans (16), the New York Giants (13) and Chicago (10) – overcame deficits of at least 10 points to win or tie in Week 1. There hadn’t been more such comebacks to win or tie on Kickoff Weekend in 20 years (five in 2002).

New Orleans was down 26-10 early in the fourth quarter in Atlanta but won 27-26. Wil Lutz kicked a 51-yard field goal with 19 seconds remaining. It was his 14th career field goal over 50 yards.

A personal foul on the Saints gave the Falcons a chance to pull out the victory, but Younghoe Koo’s 63-yard field goal attempt was blocked as the clock ran out. The important divisional victory in Dennis Allen’s debut as head coach of the Black and Gold marks the first time that New Orleans has captured four straight season openers. Allen became the fourth Saints head coach to win in his debut, joining J.D. Roberts (1970), Ernie Hefferle (1975) and Sean Payton (2006).

Quarterback Jameis Winston completed 23-of-34 passes for 269 yards and two touchdowns, including 213 yards and two touchdowns in the fourth quarter. Winston had the 13th game-winning drive of his career and his first since Oct. 25, 2021, against the Seahawks.

At halftime, he’d completed 5 of 10 passes for 24 yards and had been sacked three times for minus-26 yards, giving New Orleans minus-2 net yards passing. He added 32 yards in the third quarter, completing 5 of 8 passes. Over the final 15 minutes, with the Saints operating their hurry-up offense, Winston threw for 213 yards and two touchdowns, completing 13 of 16 passes.

“I just think you saw the resilience that we have as a whole unit,” Winston said Wednesday. “Our backs were against the wall and we were like, ‘We’ve gotta make something shake.’ We just dug deep inside and we executed, that’s it.”

The Saints totaled 385 yards of offense, featuring 213 yards in the fourth quarter. New Orleans allowed 320 yards in the first three quarters but allowed just 96 yards in the fourth quarter. The Saints appeared to get out of the win without any major injuries.

Game Trends

  • Buccaneers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
  • Buccaneers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC South.
  • Saints are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss.
  • Saints are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 vs. NFC South.
  • Saints are 35-17 ATS in their last 52 games as an underdog.
  • Buccaneers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 meetings.

Expert Prediction

  • Saints 23, Bucs 22
 
 

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