2022 NFL Win Totals Betting Analysis: Top Over and Under Picks

2022 NFL Win Totals Betting Analysis: Top Over and Under Picks

NFL Preseason Week 1 is here. It’s a good idea to handicap NFL total win odds before teams get into the heart of their preseasons. Teams that excel in practice contests will offer underlay odds. So we should nail down a few bets before NFL Preseason Week 2 at the latest. Check out an NFL Team Totals odds analysis along with top play suggestions. 

Analyzing the Best Total Wins Odds Opportunities for the 2022 Season | NFL Betting

2022-23 NFL Regular Season

  • When: Sep. 8, 2022 – Jan. 8, 2023

Top Over Play – New Orleans Saints 8.5

Bruce Arians no longer coaches the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Todd Bowles will have some success but Bowles is a defensive coach first, which means the offense could struggle. 

Even if the Bucs offense doesn’t struggle, the Saints have owned Tom Brady and Tampa. New Orleans is 4-0 in the last 4 regular season games versus the Buccaneers. 

Not only that, but New Orleans should be in line for four easy wins versus Atlanta and Carolina, which means if they split with the Bucs, the Saints have 5 victories. Another 4 should be no issue. 

Top Under Play – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 11.5

Tampa can afford to lose no more than 5 games to go over the exorbitant total. The problem the Buccaneers will have is a) stopping the pass and b) rushing the football. The Bucs weren’t good doing either last season

The offensive line is a huge question mark. So Tom Brady could be in some trouble. The first four games are brutal: road games against Dallas and New Orleans and home contests versus Kansas City and Green Bay.

The Saints go over. The Buccaneers go under. 

Team that can go under and win the Super Bowl – Denver Broncos 10.5

Broncos could go 10-7 this season and still go to the Super Bowl. All four teams in the AFC West can win the division, which means the Broncos could end up with the division title after winning 10 and losing 7.

Even if the best Denver can do is secure a wildcard spot, the team is good enough to win the Super Bowl. The Broncos will field one of the top defenses in the league. Russell Wilson plays behind a better offensive line and has more targets than he did at Seattle.

The Broncos are a legit Super Bowl contender that could go under their regular season win total. 

Team that can go over and lose the Super Bowl – Green Bay Packers 10.5

Green Bay can win the Super Bowl, but they’re not as strong as the Dallas Cowboys or San Francisco 49ers in the NFC and the Packers aren’t as good as Kansas City, Buffalo, Denver, Cincinnati, or the Los Angeles Chargers in the AFC.

Matt LaFleur’s plan of using Aaron Jones more in the passing attack will work during the regular season. But if Aaron Rodgers can’t find a true WR1, the Packers won’t win the Lombardi Trophy. However, the schedule is pedestrian. So Green Bay can win 11-of-17 in 2022.  

Four top plays to go over their win totals

  • Cincinnati Bengals – 9.5

The Bengals should field one of the top offenses and one of the better defenses in the league. Joe Burrow hasn’t reached his ceiling and Cincinnati plans on using Ja’Marr Chase the way San Francisco uses Deebo Samuel. 

  • Dallas Cowboys – 10.5

Dallas might be the best team in the NFC. The offense will rock and the defense should be a top 5 unit. Although the Giants, Eagles, and Commanders will be better this season, the Boys are the class of their division. At least 11 wins seems more than probable. 

  • Las Vegas Raiders – 8.5

The Raiders will contend in the deep AFC West. Las Vegas’ offense should be great and the defense, anchored by Maxx Crosby, is underrated. 

  • San Francisco 49ers – 9.5

The jury is out on Trey Lance, but based on early returns, he could be the next superstar San Francisco quarterback. If that’s the case, San Francisco loses 3, maybe, 4 games at the most. 

Four top plays to go under their win totals

  • Arizona Cardinals – 8.5

Forget whether Kyler Murray is watching game film or not. If the Cardinals lose 9 games it will because the defense isn’t very good. Arizona takes a huge backward step from last season’s formidable squad. 

  • Cleveland Browns – 8.5

There’s a good chance Deshaun Watson misses the entire season. Even if the Browns trade for Jimmy Garoppolo, it won’t matter. Cleveland’s defense is overrated and the offense isn’t very good except for the terrific Nick Chubb. 

  • Chicago Bears – 6.5

It’s hard to have faith in Chicago. Justin Fields did not look like a legit starter at quarterback in his rookie season. Also, Chicago’s best player, linebacker Roquan Smith, wants out. 

  • Los Angeles Rams – 10.5

Matthew Stafford’s elbow issue won’t go away anytime soon. Not only that, but Andre Whitworth retired. So it’s difficult to see the offensive line giving Staff enough time. Not only that, but the Rams boast the league’s toughest schedule, which makes sense because they won the Super Bowl last season. 


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