The Milwaukee Bucks, the team with the best record in the NBA this season, are down 2-1 to the Miami Heat in their first-round playoff series, and the Bucks aren’t sure if superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo will return from injury in Game 4 on Monday. With that in mind, let’s take a look at the following NBA betting analysis for this big game.
Bucks vs. Heat, Game 4 | 2023 NBA Playoff Expert Analysis
How to Bet Milwaukee at Miami NBA Odds & TV Info
- When: Monday, 7:30 PM ET
- Where: Kaseya Center
- TV: TNT
- Stream: TNT app
- Radio: Tunein.com
- NBA Odds: Bucks -5.5 (total 217.5)
Why Bet on Milwaukee?
Bucks superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo has not played since last Sunday, when he injured his back in Game 1. Will he play in Game 4 with his team down 2-1? That may be a game-time call again.
The Bucks are 3-1 in postseason games when Antetokounmpo does not play in his career following a 121-99 defeat in Miami on Saturday. Khris Middleton had 23 points, six assists and five rebounds. Middleton was efficient from the field while finishing with team highs in points and assists during Saturday’s loss.
Middleton passed Sidney Moncrief (1,451) for third place on the Bucks’ all-time playoff scoring list and now trails only Antetokounmpo (2,041) and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (1,692) all-time. Middleton is averaging 24.0 points a game so far this series while shooting 52.0% overall and 41.2% from beyond the arc.
Bobby Portis started again for Giannis and had nine points and 10 rebounds. Brook Lopez had just six points and three rebounds in 32 minutes after scoring 25 points in Game 2. Pat Connaughton has now reached double figures in scoring in each of the last two games, scoring 11 points in Game 3 on Saturday after putting up a playoff-career-high 22 points in Game 2.
“We’ve got a really good team,” Bucks head coach Mike Budenholzer said after the Game 3 loss “This group’s been together. There’s a ton of confidence in that locker room, players that can play and execute at a high level. It’s one game today. We weren’t our best and we’ve got to look at that, we’ve got to own that and be better going into the next game knowing that we’ve got a really good team and really good players.”
The Bucks need to slow Heat star Jimmy Butler, who is averaging 30 points, six rebounds and 4.3 assists on 61 percent shooting through three games. Butler made all four of his 3-point attempts in Saturday’s win. The Bucks dared him to shoot and he took advantage.
“I feel like we’ve faced similar coverage in year’s past,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said. “You have to take those shots. He’s worked on it diligently. You have to keep defenses honest. It’s not as he’s just pulling it out of the hat right now at this time of the year. He really works at it.”
Bet Milwaukee to Win Today
MyBookie Betting Lines for the Game
Why Bet on Miami?
Jimmy Butler posted 30 points, five rebounds, four assists and two steals in 28 minutes to lead Miami to the Game 3 win. The All-Star took a pair of heavy falls in the third quarter and went to the locker room, and despite returning to the bench, he stayed on the sidelines. Butler has been diagnosed with a glute contusion but fully expected to play. He has scored at least 25 points in each of the first three games this series, becoming just the third Heat player to start a series with 25+ pts in three straight.
Duncan Robinson played 23 minutes off the bench in Saturday’s win and had 20 points. Robinson leads the NBA in three-point field goal percentage in the playoffs, shooting 76.9 percent (10-of-13) from downtown. Robinson’s skill set is needed against a Bucks team that is among the best at defending the three-point line. Milwaukee’s opponents took just 33.7 percent of their shots from three-point range in the regular season.
Miami’s bench was outstanding in Game 3, and Robinson had a lot to do with that. He was one of three reserves to reach double figures on the night, with Kyle Lowry (15 points) and Caleb Martin (12 points) being the others. Robinson was back in a reserve role after starting the Game 2 loss in Milwaukee, with Kevin Love moving back into the starting lineup. Love had six points and seven rebounds in 21 minutes.
However, the news isn’t all good as top reserve Victor Oladipo will be out for the remainder of the season with a torn patellar tendon in his left knee suffered in Game 3. Oladipo did not play in Game 1 of the series, but he played 26 minutes in Game 2 and 19 minutes in Game 3. He assumed a larger role in the rotation after Tyler Herro suffered a fractured hand in the opening contest. Herro is out 4-6 weeks.
Coach Erik Spoelstra’s next postseason win will tie him with Red Auerbach (99) for the sixth-most in NBA playoff history.
Bet Miami to Win Today
MyBookie Betting Lines for the Game
Game Trends
- Bucks are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 games following a ATS loss.
- Bucks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.
- Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
- Heat are 16-34-2 ATS in their last 52 games following a straight up win.
- Bucks are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Miami.
Expert Prediction
Bucks 114, Heat 112
Jimmy Butler Drops 30 Points In Heat Game 3 W!
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