The NFL Draft is in the books, almost all free agents have signed with new teams, and rookies have begun to ready for NFL training camps. Now is the perfect time to think about the 2023 Super Bowl. How should football handicappers evaluate Lombardi Trophy odds? See below for a Super Bowl odds evaluation strategy so you can start planning your bets against the Super Bowl Odds.
How to Evaluate Super Bowl 57 Odds | NFL Betting
Super Bowl LVII
- When: Sunday, Feb. 12, 2023
- Where: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ
- TV: Fox
Create overlay, underlay, and fair odds Super Bowl categories
The first thing any NFL Super Bowl futures players must do is place teams into three categories: overlay, underlay, and fair.
Do this before checking out statistical information. Why? You don’t want to jump to a conclusion this early in the game. This is especially true because teams will go through training camps and preseason.
You want to make sure that if you back an overlay, the team is an actual overlay.
Check out statistical strength of schedule information
Download the NFL strength of schedule. Peruse the list, but don’t do anything with it. It’s never a good idea to base your Super Bowl bet on the initial strength of schedule.
Don’t forget that the NFL strength of schedule is based on what happened the previous season. So if teams in a specific division failed, teams that play that division in the upcoming season are assigned a weak strength of schedule no matter what has happened in the offseason.
Handicap NFL strength of schedule
If you look at the 2022-2023 NFL strength of schedule, you will notice that the teams in the NFC East all have weak strength of schedules.
The reason? The Cowboys, Eagles, Commanders, and Giants play teams in the AFC South, the Titans, Texans, Jaguars, and Colts.
The teams in the AFC South struggled last season, especially the Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars. So this is where your handicapping skills come into play.
Do you believe the Jaguars and Texans improved enough to change the NFL strength of schedule? By handicapping the strength of schedule, and coming up with your own, you can correctly define whether or not a team like the Philadelphia Eagles plays the twenty-ninth easiest schedule in the league.
Consider each teams quarterback and offensive line
Look for offensive line rankings. Consider any changes to the offense line. Also, think quarterbacks.
Rarely does a team with a mediocre quarterback win the Super Bowl. It just doesn’t happen. Even good quarterbacks struggle to win Super Bowls. So a team led by a mediocre quarterback almost always fails.
Consider each team’s defense
In the NFL Playoffs, you must have a decent defense to contend. It’s that simple. So look for teams with good defenses.
Consider each team’s head coach
Rookie head coaches struggle to win games, much less win playoff games. It doesn’t happen often. Young coaches that have failed previously, like Los Angeles’ Chargers coach Brandon Staley, can learn.
Dennis Allen used to be the head coach of the Raiders. So the Saints’ top man could also be someone who could lead his team to the Super Bowl. Make sure to think about coaches.
Re-evaluate your overly, underlay, and fair odds Super Bowl categories
After gathering all of the information, it’s time to re-evaluate your original Super Bowl overlay, underlay, and fair odds categories.
Be honest with yourself. If you had a team in the overlay category, but they’re better suited for the underlay category, make the switch. Don’t fall in love with a team just because you original thinking made them a Super Bowl overlay. Allow your handicapping to lead you to the optimal Super Bowl bets.
Only back NFL teams to win the Super Bowl that land in your overlay or fair odds categories
It goes without saying that you should only back NFL teams to win the Lombardi Trophy that reside in your overlay category. If you ended up placing the Bills in the underlay category, but you really like the Bills, they’re a play against.
On the flip side, if you thought the Bills were an underlay at +760, but after going through the process you placed them in your overlay category, they’re a great play at the odds. Stick to your handicapping to find the best Super Bowl bets.